RE: Took13 Dec 2018 09:28
@Orange88 your concerns are your concerns and I will do my utmost to respect them.
First and foremost, if prices were to normalise at $75 per kg then as a long term holder I would be delighted. What that would do is give BMN solid cash flows from which to implement their expansion plans and develop their energy platform,
Full year guidance currently, which was updated at Q3 on 9th November, sits at 2,600-2,650 mtv. With 9 month production currently sitting at 1,897 mtv, that places Q4 production at between 700 and 750 mtv. Therefore, the mine is demonstrating the ability to deliver circa 2,800 - 3,000 mtv.
If you wish to believe that this may be false adveetisign then that is your perogative. However, with the guidance being provided some 5-6 weeks into the Q4 13 week cycle, i am inclined to believe that it will be achieved. The other important factor here is time. The facility has much of 2019 to continue to improve its performance and thus push that figure higher.
However, if we assume your figures of 2,500 mtv and $75 per kg, then at the current all in costs of $32,500 per mtv, BMN at 74% share would still generate £60m in EBITDA. Given they are expanding to 5,000 mtv, developing an adjacent near surface mine at Brits, demonstrating plans to purchase further brownfield as they did with Vametco and pushing on to 10,000 mtv, then one is entitled to expect a ratio of 6-7 on that figure in terms of valuation. So we are taking about a business worth as a minimum, £360-420m, based on your figures.
That doesn't say to me that the SP would be getting hammered and that figure is heavily discounted.
If one were to take a fairer but still conservative figure of 2,800mtv, given what I have just said, then we are upto £68m and £408-476m, which is a fair bit higehr than we are today.
However, prices aren't actually at $75, they are currently at $97.50 and if that holds to Friday then 2 weeks into the BMN 2019 pricing year they will have averaged around $102 per kg. The longer they stay above $75 the greater the profits and the higher that base figure rises.
That's the current base case but the reality is the Vametco facility has time and pricing on its side to further improve its performance such that 3,000 mtv plus should be comfortably achieved. It may be that they fall short of nameplate capacity at 3,750mtv but the reality is anything over 3,000 mtv with prices at $75, in my view, makes the current SP oversold
So right now I cannot see that the SP "would get hammered" given that the base case more than supports the SP at levels above this, and in this exercise we have done nothing but analysis what Vametco is and not what BMN will be becoming.