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The $100m investment at Vametco has now been mentioned twice. The first time was 3 weeks before the Annual Report came out, which was the first place that investors heard it officially, the second time is that interview with Chika, which is the most up to date interview with a representative of the company. A representative that stated when asked about the JSE listing that it was “now a priority.”

The ‘up to’ $170m investment over the next 2-3 year fits perfectly with a medium term expansion to 10,000 mtv. Therefore, I don’t see Mokopone being part of it, particularly when I add the reasons I gave Richken yesterday.

That figure was presented prior to phase 3 at Vametco being officially started, so the $12m or so for that project is for me included, mainly because it sounds better when you are seen to be spending more money in front the of a president who is there to tell the world that investment in SA remains strong. I could include the $3m or so for phase 1 and 2 for the same reasons but I will let it slide.

The electrolyte plant is phase 1 200MWh and the latest BE update stated $10m to build. However, we know there will be debt involved highly likely from the IDC in order to allow them to share in the eventual spoils. So if we say half and half, then we are up to $17m. Even if we set aside another $10m for Brits even though it is looking very much like Vametco will take it over, and then give BE another $5m for project (BESS) tendering and staff development etc, then we are still only at $32m. If we round it up to $40m just to be sure, then if Vametco does indeed develop ‘beyond’ 5,073 mtv then there is still ‘up to’ $30m swimming about.

So like I say the picture to me is one of 1a and 1b becoming a reality.

One key final point I would like to share. As it stands what we are discussing here is the how and not the if or can of the matter. This is not 2015, the locating of the source of the brownfield option then was about survival at the bottom of a downturn, and finding reasons to trust that it was all going to be ok in the end at the moment it looked least likely. 10,000 mtv is going to happen, and the total spend by the company is well within their means with potentially just 15% or so dilution along the way because they have that Vametco asset. It’s a price worth paying for what will nearly quadruple production from 2018’s achievements.

Given the urgency that is being presented by Chika Edeh in her interview, it looks like the wait to find out isn’t all that far away.

https://alliancenews.com/in-depth-bushveld-minerals-planning-dividends-alongside-jse-float/

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The £4m figure for me was always very interesting because if it were simply for drilling then its overkill at best. However, now I see that it is more than that and it is clearly stating that it is to expand Vametco ‘beyond’ the known phase 3 works limit of 5,073 mtv. A point to note is that the vast majority of well run public companies do not talk about 'beyond' until they have a very solid handle on how beyond will come about. They may desire something but until they have a plan in place to achieve it, they don't drop needless hints. BMN takes this one step further because they are even more reserved with their information than the norm. However, if we think back to Vametco then the same pattern was experienced with brownfield opportunities being introduced in H2 2015. It was then up to the investor to find out what exactly that meant until the day that the opportunity became the clear reality that was Vametco.

But if we now rotate back to the Chika Edeh interview with that knowledge in hand, then such statements about " a new USD100 million kiln at Vametco or buying brownfield sites nearby, or even both." should start to carry far more weight because they are being made 8 months after that March placing took place.

Also, the company led by FM's statements has repeatedly told us that SA is blessed with multiple brownfield processing plants that are available. What was it he said about brownfield options in his 17th October interview with ProactiveInvestors "we are encouraged by what we see" So as recently as October 2018 the company is still talking about brownfield acquisitions outside of any Vametco expansions. The 1b option is in play.

However, a small spanner to these works if I may, in the Energy Storage Webinar on slide 55 the company included this statement ; "Scalable processing platform with scope for additional brownfield capacity expansions" Note the use of the word expansions not just acquisitions as we have seen previously. That said whilst talking about this slide FM continues to talks in the plural form and his commentary to slide 56 talks about the 10,000 mtv being reached through organic growth at Vametco which is "looking to grow capacity to 5,000 mtv per annum" and the move to 10,000 mtv will come through "targeted brownfield opportunities."

But yet another however if I may, the Chika Edeh interview took place after the Energy Storage Webinar of 13th November. Therefore, either the head of investor communications went off piste or the plan is relevant and further Vametco expansion is on the cards, along with external targeted brownfield opportunities in SA.

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@Alfacomp Perhaps we shouldn't just be thinking 1a but rather 1a + 1b.

I think back to the interview with Chika Edeh on 29.11.2018 and what she said about the expansion plans.

"To get to 10,000 metric tonnes a year, the company is looking at either building a new USD100 million kiln at Vametco or buying brownfield sites nearby, or even both."

Barring any left field outcomes that have yet to be publicly indicated i would say this.

The interview with Chika took place on 29.11.2018. BMN have been talking about additional brownfield since 2017. It is a message that has been constant but rarely expanded upon. To date the BMN plans have demonstrated themselves to be a long term strategy that is initially fed to the market as solid but undefined statements, which then more times than not, becomes a reality. Vametco is the greatest and most relevant example of this.

So when the head of investor relations in what is the only interview i have ever seen her give to date, says that both options are on the table, then i am inclined to believe that that is what is planned, because I simply cannot find a good reason as to why the company would talk about such possibilities in the autumn of 2017, and yet still be umming and arring as we end 2018.

This of course is not the first time that the Vametco expansion has been mentioned. The enclosed Businesslive article stated the following in its interview with FM on 7th June 2018 ;

"the focus remained on Vametco where for $100m, just one third the cost of building a new Mokopane project, output could be doubled to 10,000 tonnes a year, a decision the board had yet to make, he said (FM)"

The 2017 Annual Report was published just 3 weeks later on 29th June and introduced ‘10,000 mtv in the medium term’, indicating strongly that this would be "through its expansion initiatives at Vametco, as well as targeted brownfield opportunities. . . to expand its production to 5,000 mtV by the end of 2019 and to more than 10,000 mtV in the medium term."

I always assumed the targeted brownfield opportunities were external, but what if they include Vametco because it is a brownfield site.

What is also interesting though is that as far back as the 26th March placement the company was talking about the £4m investment for ;

"Expansion of the vanadium reserves and resources at the Vametco mine and Brits Project for future production and support Vametco's expansion plans to increase production to more than 5,000mtV and beyond"

Now I always took that £4m to be for the drilling but I now think I have always been reading it wrong. It’s actually in 2 parts. Part 1 is the drilling for the Vanadium reserves and resources. Part 2 is "support Vametco's expansion plans to increase production to more than 5,000 mtV and beyond"

BEYOND. . .

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/companies/mining/2018-06-07-bushveld-minerals-to-diversify-with-battery-production-powering-ahead/

Excellent. Thank you.

@BumblingFool Good morning and thank you. May I enquire as to where you found this information?

@RichKen the main problem I have with including Mokopone in any considerations for any potential fund raise through the JSE listing, is the outstanding regulatory approvals. If I am honest the same applies to Brits but the company is visibly active at Brits, where as Mokopone the party line is just that, a party line with an intention to do something, but with no further information on how it will come about.

Given the activity at Brits I can just about run with the idea that the company is more in control of its own destiny regulatory approvals wise, because an active mine is right on its doorstep, but Mokopone for me is stretching it too far.

Without a mining right BMN are not in a position to progress the project significantly such that raising funds for its development through a new listing prior to that would be, in my opinion, likely to fail and no well run business would attempt to make such costly moves without having that mining right in place. They may well advance a BFS of sorts or some further drilling to a degree but I cannot see them raising substantial capital for its development when they have other easier targets to concentrate upon.

So me it remains on the back burner until that mining right comes through. Remember the mokopone tin project was regularly included in updates and talked about as if it would be proceeding soon, but it never did.

But the beauty of all of this is BMN have time to wait so long as they have a plan to get to 10,000 mtv without it, which they clearly do.

I believe the bottom is in at around $70 per kg. Prices in China have held steady at roughly that price for the last week and there are clear signs that buyers are re-entering the market. The key to all of this is to remember that the price drop was not driven by increased supply, it was driven by a drop off in demand. Overall market demand hasn't reduced therefore the buyers had to return at some point.

The correction on paper was severe but the reality is the bottom is better than most investors could ever of dreamed about just 2 years ago.

In my view, prices are about to start rising again and BMN will rise with them.

@bassguy et al first of all anyone who is trying to spread fear about dilution by a company that is clearly generating substantial cash flows, is for me demonstrating themselves to be short of ideas.

There is always a chance that the acquisition or investment the company makes is the worng one, but as I say there is a lack of supply in the vanadium space with limited answers coming through from those that can answer. Even Australian Vanadium who I consider to be a well run company with a good asset, are demonstrating that they will need US $354m to get it built.

As an established producer with arguably the worlds largest high grade deposits of vaandium, healthy cash flows and multiple local brownfield options to choose from, a $100m investment is far more doable and will highly likely achieve the very same goal that the likes of AV can still only dream about.

Therefore, when a company in BMN's position indicates that it is looking to raise funds, then as investors we should judge that on its merits and not simply assume a negative. In the case of BMN it is something to be embraced but what we ideally want to see as investors is the company realise its ambitions and take as much advantage of this unique position them find themselves in and expolit the market that is crying out to be theirs.

Just think how VRFB projects could be supported by a company producing 10,000 mtv of vanadium and an elctrolyte plant that is tailored to be scaled. If that means 10-15% dilution then bring it on.

In terms of the actual events, we can only run with the facts and right now the company is saying that the dividend policy and the JSE listing will be announced in Q1. How that works is for debate but one angle is that the dividends may not actually start in 2019, perhaps it will be from 2020, which makes a cash raise in 2019 all the more understandable. Thus far we have been told a policy will be announced not that dividends will start this year. That said I am still thinking 2019, I am merely offering an alternative because the facts could point to something else.

The focus for me should not be on the dividend nor any dilution if it comes, it should be on those comapny plans and how they are and will be achieved, because at 10,000 mtv this is a very big vanadium producer indeed.

Like I say to be very clear, logic states that if BMN are raising funds as part of the JSE listing, then its going to be for something substantial and likely a transformational move at that.

Moving on I must apologise, it was Chika Edeh in her interview of 29.11.2018 that talked about the institutional interest in SA when she said ;

“There is a growing demand in the [Bushveld] story from South African investors,” Edeh continued, “and a lot of cash in South Africa. We find investors want to deploy that in key stories and Bushveld is one of those.

“We have had a number of institutional investors wanting to take a position in Bushveld but to do so we have to be listed on the JSE.”

At the SA Investment conference where FM spoke in front of Ramaphosa, FM stated that BMN intended investing upto $170m over the next 3 years.

BE and Vametco phases 1 to 3 are a fraction of that investment at perhaps $40m tops. Therefore, there is a $100m or so investment out there waiting to be had. We have all read of the potential $100m investment at Vametco. There is the very clear and often repeated brownfield acquisition, which Chika Edeh in her interview stated that both could well happen.

"To get to 10,000 metric tonnes a year, the company is looking at either building a new USD100 million kiln at Vametco or buying brownfield sites nearby, or even both."

Now one could argue that there is now room for debt in the business, thus avoiding the need for further dilution, but again I say that may well be but if the company does decide to go down the dilutive route then they have my full support because it will mean that the goal of reaching 10,000 mtv is upon us, and I am not a greedy man. If I need to give a little to get a lot, then I give willingly.

The JSE listing is signposted for Q1, so stand by your beds

https://alliancenews.com/in-depth-bushveld-minerals-planning-dividends-alongside-jse-float/

I for one believe that a fund raise will be conducted as part of the JSE listing. The reasons I believe this are as follows ;

In the Christmas message on the Bushveld Minerals there was a section regarding the JSE listing with words along the lines of (and apoligies I didn't save a copy) it gives access to additional capital markets in order to assist BMN with the acceleration of the business plan.

Such a move makes perfect sense given that entry to a new capital market offers a very good opportunity to expand the investor base and raise solids funds at the same time.

This is further supported by the comments from FM himself where he talked about there being investor interest in SA but that it was unable to buy into BMN due to it not being available in SA. Again I am paraphrasing but that was the heart of the message. Now when one thinks logically about this, FM was not talking about retail investors. He hasn't had a long list of Pis phoning him up asking if they can buy a few thousand shares. What FM is talking about is institutional investment in SA.

The best way that FM can give this institutional investment based access to BMN shares is to offer them a part in a placement. Now before anyone jumps on that statement and automatically takes it as a negative, I would say this. Institutional investment is what this company now needs and it is clearly what FM is looking for, but at the very same time BMN would not raise funds unless it is for something very substantial indeed, because most other things they can already afford, so if its true then a big move is coming.

So whilst dilution is some's favoured word, for me the focus should not be on the dilution but what the investment is and just how much value it will add to the company overall.

I have no problem with raising funds through dilution so long as said dilution is heavily outweighed by the value it adds to the business. At this time, in this mineral with such supply constraints and thus this pricing environment, any substantial investment by BMN made this year, can only ever be a good thing and I welcome it with open arms, because any investment now is a substantial jump start on a great many other potential competitors.

Lastly, thus far every dilutive move the company has made has led to substantial gains, so why would I stop trusting their judgement now.

So attention really should turn to what the investment is and how much it will be.

There has been much talk about the drop in vanadium prices, which for me was very welcome because it just felt like things were getting out of control and that can never be healthy for the long term security of demand.

That said right now we are 4 weeks into the BMN Q1 pricing period and I have the average price pencilled in at circa $85 per kg. I would be delighted with a yearly average that came in at around $80, so there is currently scope there for carrying prices which run a little lower than that through Q1.

Whilst we await the company’s forecasts for 2019 production, my own view is that a figure around 3,300 mtv is achievable for 2019. It may well be more but I am merely setting a position that I feel comfortable can be achieved.

2019 should see operational costs reduced as more production is achieved and outlays for phase 3 and other production initiatives are reduced. Therefore a total cost in the region of $27,000 should be achievable (H2 2018 was around $32,500). Again might be lower but I am talking safe calls here.

An average V price for 2019 of $80 would deliver $53,000 EBITD per mtv with total EBITDA at 3,300 being $175m. At a slighter weaker US dollar exchange rate of $1.35 per pound that would equate to £130m of which BMN would own £96m. Even striking out 28% for tax and ignoring the various tax incentives and pools etc, that would deliver BMN a £69m profit in 2019.

At the current Q1 average of $85 per kg the profits increase to £76m.

The key factor I am demonstrating here is that having been through the quietest and arguably most damaging period, with prices steadying themselves at circa $70, the reality is that this sort of pricing environment is extremely profitable to BMN because production is increasing and costs are dropping.

Prices, production and cost reduction do not need to be all that successful for BMN to have a highly profitable year ahead. However, if prices do rise, which I hope they won’t too far, or if the 3,300 mtv is bettered, or indeed costs push lower, then that £69m figure will only go higher.

That’s the base case. Then let’s add in that energy arm with substantial large scale mandates from Eskom fed by an in-house electrolyte plant, both of which will deliver additional profits as they unfold.

That is why I continue to choose strong buy because with those sort of results it simply must be at these sort of levels.

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Of course that is only some of what is being heavily hinted at. The JSE listing is another part of the puzzle but that is perhaps for later because I feel that is connected with the next phase of development, separate to what I have talked about above. My main focus currently is on that substantial contract win from Eskom plus the delivery of an electrolyte plant with the demonstration of associated contracts. That for me has the ability to be the key catalyst for the growth in the company’s valuation this year. Yes there are vanadium prices, the expansion to 5,000 mtv and highly likely news on how the company will reach 10,000 mtv, but for me the valuation will take on a whole new form when the energy arm is in business at such large scale.

The reasons for this are as stated under items 3 to 5 in the company’s Energy Storage 101 Webinar slide 58.

“3. Exposure to a new, high growth sector that provides access to a market that is multiple times larger than vanadium alone
4. Reduced volatility of revenues and profitability, as energy storage features lower market volatility than commodity markets
5. Higher valuation multiples, as energy and diversified listed companies carry higher earning multiples than miners (in part due to relatively lower capital requirements)”

It won’t all come in 2019 but for me there will be enough excitement generated by the initial project(s) to warrant substantial fireworks as the year develops because contracts demonstrate that the strategy written on paper actually works. Then mining PE ratios can be ignored because coupled with the exponential thirst for energy storage that will come this year, BMN will be in high demand as the only publicly listed fully integrated mining and energy storage play in the world.

My view only of course.

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I feel strongly that this all points to these healthy cash flows now being employed to drive phase 3 and Brits to an expedited conclusion (which makes sense given the pricing environment out there at the moment), enabled by the fact that Sojitz are out of the picture. It would however be nice to hear the company say that more directly and the comments regarding “reviewing the timing and required investment to expand production capacity to 5,000 mtV” certainly lend themselves to that happening. With so much cash coming in, it would be absurd to hear that less cash was being allocated to phase 3, so logic says it must be more, and if its more then that means to me faster.

With the problems that the company has had with phase 2 ramp up, I lean towards Brits being ready in time for phase 3. The question then is of mining rights and mining plans and in what form Brits will be developed. I don’t currently have those answers but I am sure the company does and I am intrigued by the level of confidence being shown for a project that still does not hold a mining right.

The Eskom BESS project cannot be underestimated for its importance. A South Africa based project that combined, begins to dwarf the Dalian project in China and it is being led by World Bank finance for the 7th largest electricity generator in the world. Whatever the company says, this project with a minimum $468m allocation for the battery element, is the prize for 2019. Therefore, all investments and efforts that are needed will be focused on that project. Yes there may be other opportunities out there but land a healthy chunk of that project and its all systems go for a fully integrated platform that can demonstrates its value to the market.

For me the electrolyte plant is clearly involved because it will produce beneficiated minerals that will be key in driving the success to of any tender. Phase 3 Vametco is involved because it delivers the sort of vanadium production that can feed such a plant, which means Brits is involved because the company already said so. I cannot see a scenario where the company inadvertently dawdles on these 3 projects in 2019. I am fully aware that with the IDC the company has a head start on the competition but it will need to demonstrate its localised capabilities, including significant cost reductions on the electrolyte, if it is to succeed in that tender. Therefore, now is not the time to sit on any cash piles, now is the time to spend and ensure that all 3 come home in good time.

I am not saying that will be the company’s only focus, I am merely expressing that it will be very central to everything they do this year.

I do feel that the inter-connections between these 3 projects combined with the need to remove Sojitz from the picture at a price that was acceptable, has led to the low key and sometimes cryptic communication on these fronts. That period is now over so now is the time for the company to unveil where all of this is tr

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Good afternoon everyone.

Here are some thoughts I have on BMN in 2019.

Firstly, as Nick has already said the first signposted news for 2019 is the Vametco and BE Q4 updates. The company may present something earlier but I lean towards these 2 updates setting the tone for these two key areas of the business this year.

As I wrote the other day the key areas of the Q4 update should be Q4 production and the presentation of Vametco's 2018 production, costs, EBITDA and 2019 production guidance. I have seen various numbers being floated but from my point of view I am looking for a figure of around about £95-£100m (at 100% Vametco).

This figure should exclude the $20m (£15.4m) paid to Sojitz in September for their minor stake and associated dividends because the figures are for Vametco and not BMN.

As a side thought, BMN collected over £2m in H2 from the exercising of warrants. This should go a long way to covering all corporate levels costs and a number of smaller investments, but with investments being made in the Eskom battery, the electrolyte plant, and of course the Sojitz buyout, the Vametco figure is bound to be reduced when the accounts are released in June. That said this really isn't about the size of the profit at this stage, this is about having the means to execute the plans to expand primary production and set the company up as a fully integrated business with contracts to demonstrate its worth, thus expanding BE's scope and penetration. For that reason my own focus this year will not be on the profits made but the plans and contracts that are achieved.

This starts with Vametco and its ability to demonstrate that it is capable of upping its production to firstly 3,750 mtv, then 5,000 and beyond.

Right now there are more questions than answers and I would hope that by the time that Q1 updates are released late April time, that we investors are able to understand where these plans are all heading.

I certainly feel there is something going at Vametco and the lack of concrete timelines combined with the hints regarding such things as phase 3 ““will also benefit from advancement of the Brits Vanadium Project” (RNS 9th Nov) push my mind in overdrive. As I stated in my post the other day, FM clearly states in his Q3 comments that the completion of the Sojitz buyout was key to enabling the company to “now focus on ensuring maximised production output and efficiencies at Vametco.” That includes phase 3 whose start was also mentioned in the same update.

Indico did not cost AMER $6m. That figure is for Indico, Sol and Aquila combined and was part of the 2018 planned CAPEX. In the meantime the company has been adding to its cash pile throughout 2018 so all planned CAPEX for 2018 was sufficiently supported.

Bear in mind that $19m of the total $61m planned CAPEX for 2018 was for Put 9, which OXY will now take up the reigns on. So there one could justify saying that the delay was strategic. I am not so sure the same could be said about the others.

The current spend by AMER on CP-05 is $2m a drill but the additional drills around Indico-1 should be significantly cheaper because the infrastructure for drilling is already there, but there will be some additional costs for "improvements to surface facilities" meantioned in the latest RNS.

The key factor for me is that if and when those 4 wells come in, there should be more than enough total production to cover the vast majority of further drilling across the acerage, which is set to be substantial over the next couple of years.

@Wait good morning. I am just picking up on the article you shared on Saturday, thank you. For me an important line within that ONGC update is as follows ;

"OVL is also embarking on acquiring additional 3D Seismic data to map more drillable prospects in other sectors of the block."

As far as i can find (other longer time served investors here may counter this) the 3D seismic for CP-05 hasn't been extended beyond the original north west element. Therefore it remains as per that demonstrated in enclosed presentation (slides 31 and 32).

Slide 32 shows that Sol-1 sits right at the edge of this 3D seismic zone. Upon reviewing the block dimensions one can see that there is up to 20km between Sol-1 and the southern border of the block. Given the fact that time is needed to complete this additional 3D, which must include this zone to the south of Sol-1, then perhaps that is the reason why the partner's thoughts are initially being concentrated around Indico 1.

Whatever the case when Sol-1 is drilled and if it is anywhere near as successful as Indico, then the company has 1.5 times the length of the current fairway to go at, in addition to the 13.5km catchment area that is currently being talked about.

When one considers the area available for drilling wells between Mariposa-1 and Indico, then we are already talking a serious numnber of additional wells.

As a crude example, over at Llanos 34 Geopark have drilled are are about to drill circa 24 wells on the Tigana field over roughly the same 6.5km stretch.

One last point, I note that Mariposa-1 initial controlled rate was 1,487 bopd increasing to the stable 3,200 bopd that we see today. Indico-1 is currently producing at 2,680 bopd with JW stating in the 02-01-2019 RNS that "we have no doubt that further flow improvements may be achieved during LTT"

Mariposa-1 more than doubled its production figure on LTT. The same sort of success at Indico-1 would see production rise to over 5,000 bopd, thus securing AMER upto 1,500 bopd on just one well. Add in Mariposa-1 and we are talking 2,300 bopd with 6 more front end wells to come. I very much like what I currently see.

http://www.amerisurresources.com/images/rns-pdfs/Amerisur_Colombia_analyst_presentation.pdf

@Richken I am very much with you on the phase 3 plant upgrade being completed earlier in the year. It should be noted that the company has always given conflicting information on this by using 'by end of year' and 'during.'

I am extremely intrigued by the wording employed in the Q3 update because it indicates very strongly that phase 3 was never going to commence until Sojitz was out fo the picture. If for nothing else than the fact that it improves Sojitzs bargaining position.

The words used by FM were this ;

"With the completion of most of the corporate action aimed at maximising Bushveld's ownership of Bushveld Vametco, the Company can accordingly now focus on ensuring maximised production output and efficiencies at Vametco."

It is a very interesting statement given that he goes on to say ;

"While higher vanadium prices partially mitigated the impact of the production shortfall, with the Company expected to generate healthy cash flows, Bushveld intends to use this opportunity to sustainably maximise production volumes and drive operating costs down. Accordingly, we are pleased to have commenced with Phase 3 of our expansion plan, which will increase capacity at Vametco to 5,000 mtV per annum."

So there is recognition of the need to not simply rely on high vanadium prices but the phase expansion conveniently in the period post Sojitz take out. But it has started, which makes the following later statement even more interesting ;

"As part of the operational improvement initiative, designed to enhance Vametco's productivity, the Company is reviewing the timing and required investment to expand production capacity to 5,000 mtV."

So they have declared that they have started phase 3 but at the very same time they are reviewing the timing and investment required, and this statement about "investment required" comes straight off the back of FM stating that the completion of 'most' of the corporate action i.e. Sojitz buyout, "the Company can accordingly now focus on ensuring maximised production output and efficiencies at Vametco."

What that says very loud and clear in my ear is that full control of Vametco delivers the ability to re-direct resources to expand Vametco at a pace that suits the remaining partners in the facility. Remember BMN chose and fianced the BEE partner. Now perhaps we are learning why.

I have for some time been of the opinion that the company always intended fast tracking phase 3 once they took out Sojitz, which was clearly signposted by the wording employed in the March cash raise. Well now the company is busy erecting new signposts and for me they point to that fast tracking being very real, which is why I am keen to see the wording and the full year guidance in that Q4 update. An update that has the potential to be a very significant indeed.

@RichKen if they hit a figure around about what I have indicated then the figures will be nothing short of fantastic, even with a reduced Q3 figure, which i have coming in at an average FeV price of $78.70 and so EBITDA of circa $27m.

That would give a total H2 EBITDA figure of $85m for 100% of Vametco. If we add in the known H1 figure of $42.4m, then total EBITDA should be in the region of $127m.

That compares to a full year 2017 figure of $23.7m. So over $100m more in EBITDA. That's going to turn a few heads.

However, I do agree with Daisan, the company needs to start to demonstrate its ability to deliver on phase 2 promises. Yes the EBITDA figure is very high and deserving of a far greater valuation from these levels, but this is about future guidance being believable.

That said if Q4 comes in at the upper range of 750 mtv and there is indeed an allowance for a Christmas shutdown, then at the very least there would be evidence that 750 mtv would be a base from which to spring into Q1.

This is why I stated yesterday how important the Q4 update will be because it will deliver that 2019 full year guidance and given the disappointments of 2018, the company is going to need to be more sure of what it can achieve because such quarters as we have witnessed in Q4 won't always be around. Future profit growth will come from scale, expansion and cost cutting. Hence the company's words on the initiatives to improve productivity in the Q3 update.

That aside the Q4 update is shaping up to be high impact, so I do not see the SP holding at these levels for very long, becasue I cannot be the only one that is aware of what is coming our way.

@Rob1967 The company has effectively told the market what it will achieve in Q4 when it released its Q3 update on 9th November.

It was there that the company styated that full year guidance had been adjusted to between 2,600 -2,650 mtv.

Current yearly production to end of Q3 is 1,897 mtv. So the guidance for Q4 was set at 703 -753 mtv. The question of Christmas etc is of little relevance because the company has updated its guidance for the full year approximately 6 weeks into a 13 week cycle. If they haven't got that right given the previous downgrades to guidance from 3,680 mtv, then there is an even bigger question to be answered.

My own view is that they have played it very safe because they have already disappointed the market twice due to the problems detailed in both the Q2 and Q3 updates. That said one wouldn't be getting ahead of oneself if one assumed that the middle point is a given. This is why I have always employed 725 mtv in my calculations.

I have the Q4 average vanadium price at $112.40 per kg. Now that may be a couple of dollars out but there is evidence that Vametco near as damn it achieves the average, despites discounts in the market. I previously calculated H1 as being $61.50 and it came in at $60.80. That's a 1.14% deviation.

At 725 mtv and $112.40 per kg, Vametco has the ability to demonstrate $58m in EBITDA just for Q4 (plus Q3 achievements as well of course), and that could be as soon as 3 weeks from now.

As I mentioned the other day, it should not be forgotten that the Q4 update, if following last year's strategy, will be about more than just Q4 numbers.

It will demonstrate the full year achievements of Bushveld Vametco including full EBITDA. Thus the market will be able to understand the vast majority of what BMN has achieved financially.

In addition, there will be the 2019 guidance which should go a long way towards demonstrating how well bedded in phase 2 is. That figure may even pour some light on the company's efforts regarding its statement in the Q3 update, where by we were told ;

"As part of the operational improvement initiative, designed to enhance Vametco's productivity, the Company is reviewing the timing and required investment to expand production capacity to 5,000 mtV."

Finally there will be the anticipated unit cost figures for 2019, which will demonstrate how successful the planned productivity drives have been.

There may well be other important details regarding the drilling at Brits (results signposted for Q1) but the most important elements will be those EBITDA results, and the cost and production guidance for 2019.

Last year they came out on 22nd Jan. That date may move a little but the company has to release those figures in order to finalise the H2 employee payment, agreed as part of the strike settlement, and set for payment by latest 31st March.

There may be news before this but it is certainly a key piece of early news for this year and with just 3 weeks to go until that date, investors will certainly be taking their positions in anticipation of what should be very strong results.