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@Sanchez599 My previous thoughts on the subject were that prices would stabilise/begin to turn this week. There are signs that this may just be the case as demand is starting to pick up.

If so then the bottom should be around my $70-80 figure, which bodes very well for a strong Q1.

That said I would feel far more comfortable if prices stayed at around the above mark because the spikes simply aren't healthy. The only companies that will come under pressure are new mines seeking finance because BMNs expansion plans will be driven by organic growth and low cost acquisitions. Thus any shortfalls in revenues will be made up as production expands. It's an enviable position to be in.

"If all goes to plan then by the end of next year, BMN will be a highly profitable enterprise demonstrating a strategy that will be, at the very least, on the very edge of being a fully integrated miner and energy storage player, demonstrating an ability to deliver profits across the entire value chain, and be in the process of delivering large utility scale battery storage mandates."

2019 isn't about the number of projects it's about delivering the fully integrated platform in a form that the market can appreciate, believe and measure.

In what will be a very hot sector in 2019, that's the story.

SP Angel are talking 89p etc with nothing for the energy storage play. 2019 will give them the substance needed to include it and with them the market too.

If 2018 was the year of BMN the vanadium miner, then 2019 will be the year of BMN the energy storage play.

For all the noise being generated over retraces and bullish bearish trends, the true trend is that of a business that is demonstrating a strong ability to deliver on its publicised plans. Investors simply focusing in on vanadium prices are in my view missing a far more lucrative picture.

2018 brought together all the components to support what will now unfold in 2019.

If all goes to plan then by the end of next year, BMN will be a highly profitable enterprise demonstrating a strategy that will be, at the very least, on the very edge of being a fully integrated miner and energy storage player, demonstrating an ability to deliver profits across the entire value chain, and be in the process of delivering large utility scale battery storage mandates. In doing so they will be the only publicly listed company with such a wide reaching business strategy at a time when energy storage is set to have its most expansive and recognisable year to date.

The percentages of success sit heavily in BMNs favour right now, such that as it stands a long term bet against them at this juncture is heavily flawed, and there sits the reality.

More contributors here know this than perhaps is currently appreciated. The current moves are those of short term trading and positioning, and I am sure a great many of the detractors are temporary in their stance and willing to flip their position the moment time runs out on it. That's the beauty of business.

Remember this ;

(Interims RNS 26th Sept)

"A second payment, in respect of the period 1 July 2018 to 31 December 2018, shall be payable after the release of the financial results of Bushveld Vametco Alloys Limited for FY2018 which is expected to be paid by 31 March 2019."

BMN will likely release its 2018 accounts in June 2019, but the Bushveld Vametco accounts will have to come a lot sooner if that workers payment is to be realised.

Those accounts will be pure, no acquisition costs no investing elsewhere. They will show what Vametco achieved in 2018 and as a great many here already know, it was by no means small.

That will be but one of many key events next year, that will lead the way to the demonstration of the first fully integrated vanadium mining and energy storage play, that investors can buy into. Energy storage is going to be hot next year, particularly if a true downturn kicks in.

If BMN demonstrates their ability to win big contracts in that sphere, then they are going to be not only hot too, but one of the hottest tickets around, because they will be fully integrated.

If you are still talking about BMN the vanadium miner then you are already running behind the ball, because that story was told long before it happened.

Now it's about something completely much bigger and much different.

See you in 2019 where the real fireworks will be displayed.

HNY to you all.

@Bakeover thank you for bringing this to our attention. I too becomes concerned when i start reading accusations of environmental damage against a company I have invested in. I don't care for making money out of situations where people or peoples are feeling under attack in their own homes.

If you have further evidence i would welcome reading it but would also welcome more detail in your posting as I personally find your posts too cryptic, which given the severeity of what you appear to be implying should, in my view, not be the case.

However, I do have concerns over the validity and purpose for such an article. One particular section that stood out was this ;

"The construction of the pipeline caused grave environmental and spiritual damage to the Siona, and it was built without conducting an environmental impact statement, without an approved environmental license, and most importantly, without prior consultation of the Siona, a right enshrined in international law and recognized by the Ecuadorian constitution."

That is a very damning statement, which pushed me to do some checking and i found this ;

RNS 13th Feb 2014
"The Environmental license application for the Ecuadorian part of the pipeline is currently under review by the Ecuadorian authority and the application to the Colombian licensing agency will be made in the next few days."

RNS 16th Feb 2016
"Award by Ecuadorian Ministry of the Environment of the environmental license to Petroamazonas EP for the completion of the construction and operation of the 10.8" (nominal) pipeline to the Victor Hugo Ruales (VHR) field from Pad 9S in the Platanillo field, Colombia"

"License approves the construction and operation of the pipeline and the under river crossing within Ecuadorian territory"

"All permissions now granted and as such the Company has begun to drill and install the pipeline under river, expected to take approximately 35 days"

The above demonstrates that as far as the company is concerned the approvals have been received such that they were able to make a public declaration through RNSs. So either the authors of the article are misinformed or lying, or the company is lying through official channels.

Such a damning accusation should have been thoroughly checked prior to being included in the article, which having not leads me to question the authenticity of the other 'facts' therein and the overall intentions of the authors.

Also, if there are indeed long standing issues in Putumayo, then why has one of the largest oil companies operating there with a " long and distinguished history in Colombia, with great understanding of the geological and operating environment" signed up for a half share in 4 blocks in that very region? Surely they would know of the Siona people and due diligence would have brought out any outstanding court cases and the chances of success.

So point taken but the jury is certainly out on this particular article.

On 20th Jan 2016 Brent was trading at $27.88 per barrel. The AMER SP was sitting at 18p. Since the 20th Jan 2016 the company's shares have been diluted by 9.2%. Thus 18p becomes 16.35p.

7th April of that year AMER announced their 2015 accounts and stated the following ;

"FY 2015 average production constrained at 4,437 barrels of oil per day ("BOPD") and average realised price of $42.85 per barrel

Cash position at period end of $42 million with no debt

1P (Proven) gross field reserves were 15.2 MMBO"

During that same accounting period the company acquired the following ;

"30% (non-operated) working interest in the CPO-5 contract, located in the Llanos basin. ONGC Videsh Ltd holds a 70% working interest and is the Operator

49.5% (non-operated) working interest in the Tacacho contract, located in the Caguan-Putumayo basin. Pacific Stratus Energy holds 50.5% and is the Operator"

Share price 1 day after the results 29p. The Brent oil price was $41.94 a barrel.

There was no OBA pipeline because it hadn't been built yet and according to the interims released on 15th Sept 2016 the OBA was ;

"undergoing final checks with exports set to commence in the next few days - scheduled to reduce cost per barrel produced from $26 to $15"

So that April SP was being supported by ongoing costs per barrel of $26 against a Brent price of circa $42.

Jump forward to today and production is there or there abouts the same, cash was $49m as of June 2018 but now likely considerably higher. OBA plus

CPO5 costs per barrel are running at $20, so 23% lower than 2015/6 and the price of Brent is $56.50, with a year average about to come in at circa $73 per barrel, which even at a 10% discount on Brent is 54% higher than 2015 achieved.

That CP0-5 pruchase has delivered Mariposa-1 at net 800 bopd and a 209ft net oil column at Indico-1 with a possible tie in to Mariposa.

That Tacacho acquisition has been turned into 100% and along with 3 other blocks has been famred out for $93.5m with the vast majority of development costs for the next 2 years covered by the purchaser.

The one blot on the landscape is 1P reserves which will be running at circa 11m at year end, so a 28% drop.

However, lets not kid ourselves because CP0-5 has never been properly accounted before even before Indico-1, but now it is here, it is a matter of when the reserves will be substanitally increased not if.

Taking all of that into account, the SP today stands at 13.9p. It needs to rise 17.6% just to match the April 2016 equivalent discounted level. The it needs to start factoring in the above progress.

Oil prices may be under pressure and thus the landscape is somewhat clouded, but it will clear and the value will come out. In the meantime I continue to add.

(3 of 3)

That’s why “the story of Bushveld Minerals is not yet half told”, that’s why Vametco is merely “a step in our journey” (Annual Report 2017 page 15). BMN know exactly where this is heading whether others out there wish to believe it or not. Just like the late great Muhammad Ali once did, they are telling the world time and again what they are going to do and they achieving it. Yet still the world insists on questioning their abilities and their chances of success.

Just like with those world agency forecasts on renewables, the masses will continue to raise the risks and the barriers to achieving a fully integrated model that has large scale battery mandates as its conclusion, whilst those in the know continue to deliver upon it and back it.

That is exactly why BMN are talking about telling that story because the book from which they will read has already been written.

Have a good Christmas Bushveld land, get your rest and dare I say recharge your batteries, because in 2019 you are going to need it.

Until next year. . .

(2 of 3)

BMN have presented a plan to build 1000MWh of energy storage solutions by 2020, it is a plan that first emerged 4 years ago. The CSP project which is what the BESS project used to be has been around since 2011, repeatedly failing to gain interest and funding. It is a natural focal point for any parties wishing to guide a weakened Eskom in another direction, by developing something that external agencies would back but that local industry would be willing to produce. A solution which answers far more government driven Eskom requirements than just lower costs. That’s the IDC’s role. FM own words from the RNS dated 5th Oct 2016 ;

The IDC also has important stakeholder linkages with the South African government, regulators and utilities and other key players that are necessary to provide a catalytic stimulus for the energy storage industry”

The IDC are only backing BE and its partners to build their vision of a localised energy storage industry in SA.

"been working towards. . . since launching. . .2014"

Or as FM says in the seminar "

“leveraging mandates that we expect to develop within the markets that we operate, we see an opportunity to establish assembly manufacturing platform, which will carry with it substantial local content and in so doing, giving us a significant advantage in those markets”

“If you implement your strategy correctly, and target those structural levers, you can open up this market at large large scale. We have seen this in Africa recently with Eskom announcing recently that it is looking to acquire as much as 1,400MWh of battery energy storage”

McFly is back! Stakeholder linkages to SA government, regulators, utilities. Structural levers, opening up the market at large large scale. The BESS project is 1,400MWh. The opportunity is currently only bigger than that in Dalian.

There is far more I could quote but quite frankly I don’t need to. Its all out there staring investors in the face, they just need to go and read it, and read it, and read it.

BMN are doing what they always do. They are telling us exactly what they are going to do and they are in the process of actually doing it. The market cannot and will not appreciate it, but as is always the case it will at an appropriate time in the future, of which for me 2019 has all the ingredients to hold that point in time.

(1 of 3)

Further to my last post I would say this;

I would encourage every investor to get out there and remind themselves of what has happened over the course of this year. It is important to keep revisiting the data again and again to remind oneself of what has and is taking place. There is so much information driving around the internet highways, so many articles, tweets, RNSs etc etc, that it is often easy to forget the detail and how it all ties together.

When one digests all of what the company is planning and the outside influences that are miraculously assisting their ambitions, it is clear to me that 2019 is going to be the fundamental year in the growth and establishment of this company.

2018 was all about delivering the full extent of Vametco and with it control of the cash flows and full access to what it produces. 2019 will be the year that the fully integrated model that feeds off those elements, presented in the Energy Storage 101, will be actually delivered. The company has introduced its elements and given a picture of what it is, 2019 will be about delivering it, backed by Vametco.

I cannot stress enough how strong my belief is in the Eskom BESS project. The language that FM employed in the 101 seminar, only goes to shed even more light on how influential BMN (likely through the IDC) have been in bringing this project into existence. The 22nd October tweet following its announcement demonstrates clearly how much preparation the company has conducted to be ready for this project.

"Large scale battery energy storage is here. Been working towards being ready for this since launching Bushveld Energy in 2014."

2014 was when BE was founded. Since then the IDC and UET have come on board and played a role in 'steering' the South African committee on energy storage, which was led by the work of the USTDA, which analysed the validity of battery technologies in SA, and which itself has since invested in BE's Eskom demonstration battery, which is part of a programme designed to analyse battery technologies ahead of their roll out through projects like the BESS project. A project that the World Bank recognises will be built with batteries currently being tested at Eskom.

For BMN to state that they have been working towards being ready since 2014 means that they have all along been interested in finding solutions that support battery roll outs even in times of high vanadium prices. Why? Because since 2014 BMN have been banging the table telling the market that there will be shortages of supply and that prices will push much higher. So they must have been developing their leasing model fos some time also, because it is that model that will answer those higher prices.

The phrase “hello Mcfly” is bouncing around my head once more.

Here is a very interesting video by a professor in the field of sustainability and technology associated with it.

I am posting it here because what he describes is what a good number of investors here, myself included, have repeatedly banged the drum about. Visions and a beliefs are quickly becoming the reality and the pace of change is going to surprise everyone one.

A prime example of this is the graph Professor Willis presents at around 11minutes. There one can see the comparison between the forecasts from the leading world energy agencies and the reality of renewables uptake.

More importantly for the world of BMN are his comments regarding the uptake of batteries and the speed with which they will take off (4 minutes in). Just take a look at the steepness of the red dotted line from 2020 through to 2025.

Lastly and most importantly of all, there is the comparison of the cost of new renewable technologies and the comparison to development of smartphone technology, which is itself only essentially 10 years old.

Professor Willis talks about the high cost of smartphones back in 2008 and the fact that early buyers paid the greatest costs and helped drive the market thus enabling manufacturers to grow their production and drive the costs of their products lower, and enable widespread take up. The same rule applies to batteries.

This is why the World Bank's drive to support battery storage is so important and should not be underestimated or underplayed. At circa $4 billion and upto 17.5GWh over the next 5-6 years, it is big enough to spark successful candidates into expanding their production, reducing costs and securing further take up, which in turn will drive the cost cycle lower and lower.

It has been said before but the World Bank is employing the Clean Technology Fund (CTF) to help drive this investment.

If we remind ourselves of that World Bank paper on the Eskom Renewables Support project (BESS) and in particular item 25.

"Because of the pioneering role of this battery storage project, its assessment should not be limited to the amount
of clean energy enabled and CO2 offset but the impact that the demonstration would have on maturing the
technology, lowering costs and enabling scale-up. Concessional funding is needed at this stage to support maturity
of the technology."

What professor Willis talks about is being heavily supported by the World Bank, right now in SA, the home of BMN and its fully integrated model with aspirations to assemble and manufacture VRFBs locally.

So what does that say about the efforts BMN will be making to be prepared to land those contracts and what will be coming our way in the lead up to their announcement.

I'm very much looking forward to 2019.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jIgclJl4Zc

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/390371543618515176/pdf/Disclosable-Restructuring-Paper-South-Africa-Eskom-Renewables-Support-Project-P122329.pdf

@Dagmit I always get the sense that the majority of investors demonstrate consistent signs of impatience in their investing. I don't mean that untimely it is purely my view based on my time in this world. Therefore what I say next I say with care because I have no wish to fuel that fire.

BMN has been very good to me but it has taken the best part of 5 years to get there and such gains should take that long if not longer.

However, I solemnly believe that the speed with which battery storage expands into the renewables market, the speed that governments, agencies, regulators, change their policies, their views on this sphere, will move at a whirlwind rate over the next few years. I already don't recognize the market compared to that I discussed here just 3 years ago, but I think the momentum will grow even faster over the next 3 years, such that the discussions here will be unrecognizable compared to today.

Everything is now in place it's simply about the momentum building. How much BMN will take of it all and in what format is debatable, but if VRFBs are ready and willing, then the BMN mines, resources and platforms are going to be a big player in all of it because the grades and the model are just too good not to, whoever ends up owning them as time goes by.

Whilst on, I don't think BMN are going quietly into the Christmas night this year.

I don't like getting into the whole RNS guessing game, but I can't help but feel something is coming here. Not that I feel that I need more from the company this year, it's been quite a year whatever happens. Plus in all honesty the first quarter of 2019 is going to be full of fireworks anyway so a pause and a few weeks rest wouldn't be so bad and would likely do us all good, but. . . .

Thank you Loudspeaker. Two weeks into BMN 2019 and average mid price sits at $99.50 per Kg. I still stand by my belief that we will see another 3 weeks or so of European prices dropping before buyers start coming back in.

At the current rate my $70-80 still looks a good range for the bottom. That will place the average at around circa $89 after 5 weeks with rising prices to come. If the prediction comes true then a Q1 average price of over $90 is very much on. With production increasing that would be a very healthy start to 2019 indeed.

Just my musings on the subject.

"In 2017 electricity from renewables was cheaper than fossil fuels"

It's game over. Now it's merely about how fast the change will come and I guarantee it will be faster than almost anyone cur appreciates.

https://qz.com/1490832/two-utilities-promised-to-go-100-carbon-free-last-week/

@willec does it really matter? What's the rush, the most important thing is that the company is demonstrating value considerably above its current position. That's not easy to find but when one does then one should back it as far is comfortably possible and then be patient whilst the value demonstrates itself.

My own initial review point here is post Sol-1, which should be in March. There will be enough news out by then to establish the size of the prize.

I like one or two others here no longer overly concern myself with current production figures so long as they are producing enough to support continuing CAPEX requirements. The OXY deal and Indico-1are more than enough to drive this company to far higher value levels. If Platanillo and the other assets can also play their part then the return will only increase further.

Please ignore the last sentence. Call it editing if you will.

Picking up on Jointhedots last post, 2019 CAPEX should now be higher than the $61m assigned for 2018 based on cash reserves being much higher, 2018 CAPEX not being assigned and the belief that production figures will increase substantially through 2019.

This is where the OXY farm-out really starts to bear its fruits. Put 9, which is now part of the OXY deal was assigned $19m, so nearly a third of 2018 CAPEX that can now theoretically be assigned elsewhere.

Amerisur have a near $10m commitment to 2D seismic with OXY from 2019 and CP0-5 will no doubt see an uplift in CAPEX as further drills are brought into play. However, the Indico-1, Sol-1 and Aguila are costing just $6m combined (so circa $2m a drill) and 2 of them are covered by 2018 CAPEX. They could very drill 10 wells next year and we are still only talking circa $20m, crudely apeaking of course.

Thus we have the potential to see major developments on 4 blocks for around $30m and $23m is effectively covered by 2018 CAPEX.

The other big 2018 CAPEX spends were Put 8 ($8.2m for 2 wells & civil works) and Put 12 ($14.4m for 3 wells &
civil works). One could argue that elements of the Put 8 civil works are complete but even if the full CAPEX was assigned for 2019 then we are still only at circa $53m.

So $53m for the development of between 6 blocks during 2019 and upto $23m is 2018 CAPEX. If the company were to take that factor into consideration then Platanillo could see between $8m and $31m of CAPEX spend even before we talk about increased CAPEX above the $61m from 2018.

Therefore there should be plenty of cash available to continue to develop Platanillo at a good pace, which then brings the total number of blocks being developed in 2019 to 7. Now things do tend to take longer than expected with Amerisur but I see no real issues with the OXY and ONGC deals going forward, nor with Platanillo. So even if 1 from Put 8 and Put 12 suffers timelines wise, we are still looking at a very busy year on 6 blocks led by the exciting development that is CP0-5.

That would put total CAPEX for 4 blocks at $30m. Put 8

@jointhedots most informative thank you for taking the time to post such detail. I think we all know that the Indico-1 RNS is littered with positive language to the point that the discovery is clearly far larger than anticipated. Thus even with a slow minded partner, there is now going to be a great more emphasis placed on exploiting this find.

6 months from now when Sol-1 and Aguila have been drilled along with perhaps several other drills in ann around Indico-1, then what we have here is going to be a substantially larger asset than it is currently valued at. It is one of those wonderful situations where it is not so much if but when, thus it is about patience and not percentages.

In addition, I have been looking a bit more into Platanillo for signs of what we can expect from Pintadillo and future drills.

Page 22 of the 2017 Annual report states the following regarding the Platanillo environmental license ;

"The modification application was submitted on 18 August to ANLA and approved in early April 2018. This modification allows the building of a 3.8 kilometre access road and six well pads, with up to seven wells per pad."

The Pintadillo pad sits just over half way up the block so there certainly room to express themselves with the other potential well pads.

Pad Pintadillo is the first of these 6 well pads and Pintadillo-1 is ;

"the first of up to three wells targeting the N Sand anomaly, which has been identified on 3D seismic"

"In the event of a commercial discovery a second, deviated well will be drilled from the same pad to evaluate the accumulation. The Company is also evaluating the potential for a third well to be drilled horizontally, should the reservoir encountered be suitable for this technology"

When one considers all of that then it is clear that there is substantially more to come from Platanillo and the Pintadillo pad. I doubt the company would abandon any further drills there given the civil works and first drill alone cost around $6m, and the fact that they have, as far as we know to date, made a decent discovery.

In time the Platanillo field will likely be gazumped by CPO-5 in temr of production but right now it is the bread and butter of the operations, and an update in the coming weeks on plans there could be perhaps better than is currently being given credit for. But then that applies across the board with Amerisur right now.

@Workover perhaps you are right but I believe you are grossly underestimating the potential here by only projecting 20-24p "by mid to late 2019."

The flow test should be completed by early-mid Jan. That should then allow the rig to commence Sol-1 by end of Jan. It is also aiming for LS3 so the drill period should be about the same at circa 40 days. That places that result at mid March. If that hits big enough and the company can demonstrate a correlation between Mariposa and Indico, then 20-24p will be breached by that point.

However, we will no doubt understand prior to that point what "further appraisal wells into the Indico structure in the short term" means. I like others here see them upping their rig count, particularly if Sol-1 comes in. There is at least one more drill already planned on CP0-5 but I can see them adding at least 3-4 more in 2019, all of which have a very high chance of adding considerable production to the books.

Quarter 1 should also provide more information on what is being planned with OXY. If we then add in developments on other the assets, then there is more than enough to see the SP fly past 24p.

My own conservative target for next year is closer to 40p, which would still only be an MC of 485m. Given the potential production growth, low OPEX costs and the OBA factor, that's very doable, in my opinion of course.

@Captain_Al I believe when this really does turn north again it will be news driven and the move will be substantial.

@Captain_Al I always try to think logically using the company's own words wherever possible as a basis. I appreciate that there has been talk of electrolyte leasing and investment in VRFBs and VRFB assembly, and it is quite possible that the company is about to launch its product and perhaps its energy storage platform investment plans and surprise us all.

However, the longest laid plans are those for Brits, for brownfield expansion and the more recently tied in 10,000 mtv in the medium term. They are the upfront plans and they are yet to be timed, costed and have funds assigned to them. The energy storage elements clearly have a strong future but until there are actual projects, I cannot see large amounts of cash being signposted for them, and that is the key point here.

Vametco is producing millions in free cash flows so medium sized investments such as the Vametco expansion, the electrolyte plant, upfront investment in BE, can all be covered fairly easily. But larger investments if deemed required to start in H1 2019, need greater funds and perhaps quicker than Vametco can release them.

With the Eskom tenders due out in March and construction due to start by the end of next year, BMN could very well find BE demand outstripping their ability to generate vanadium, because the processes to make more take far longer to achieve. Just look at the electrolyte plant which can be scaled very easily from 200MWh to 400MWh. Thus 1,000 mtv becomes 2,000mtv almost overnight. Vanadium production is far less flexible.

So the 10,000mtv medium term plan is perhaps already under pressure if the BE market leads are gathering the sort of pace that the company is alluding to. Hence the need perhaps to make the move early in 2019.

It is also worthy of note that getting on for half of the Vametco cash flows for 2018 will be generated in Q4. Those sales need to be have their payments realised.Thus perhaps there isn't so much front end cash available as one might think when thinking on a larger scale. Just a thought.

If the BMO appointment is to raise equity, then the plans are big because they need a new corporate broker when they already have 2. If the plans are for further Vametco expansion then that is all in house, but if they are for brownfield then the BMO appointment signals that the deal is sufficiently advanced to warrant making the appointment.

Those are my thoughts for the day. Until next time.