Member Info for BIGBangs

Tiger - I always read and consider your views carefully as over a long period of time across many boards you have consistently provided valuable input. I did purchase a few thousand shares on Friday as the drop felt overdone, I would normally have taken a much larger position but I do feel that this attack may be different to others that we have seen over the last 12 months and I would not actually be massively surprised if the forces at play, combined with the general poor sentiment in the market, actually do manage to force the price below the magic £5.15 and threaten FRES’s position within the top 100. I would be surprised if they could hold it there and the shorters exiting their position together with any positive news hitting the market would see us rise substantially from there but for the moment it is all to play for and the momentum is generally down.

Thanks for the comprehensive reply aw. The Woodford thing was a (failed) cut and paste it should have shown JB’s holding at 61 ish then Woodford at about 5 just for info.

Worst case, If the company were to go private particularly if its major shareholders were offshore then the regulator would be hampered in its control. The borrowers would potentially be exploited to just this side of what is legal - the company would in many ways have no one to answer to other than its principals - that is not strictly correct but I guess that would be the result. It would make a lot of profit before someone else came along to provide the service. We would all be out so we have no position or comment. Best case it goes private and everyone works to build the business back to the best it can be to resist at some point.

JB has lost £600 million - let that figure sink in - I would bet that he regrets his decision to have relinquished whatever control he had and all that is about to change. Activist Investors (offshore) either potentially willing to work with him or at the very least make a chunk of money have taken a position they may be working with other players that between them took up the other shares (below the notifiable 3%) that we know were recently disposed of by Invesco, we can also speculate that those still owned by Woodford are available - watch this space.

Putting all judgement aside I would prefer the new entrants to be determined to maximise the sale price - this is the most likely point to their involvement. If I was JB I would probably be pressing for a special or big dividend - shareholders will hardly complain but this has the other effect of leaving AMGO strapped for cash, with less options to defend itself (potential buybacks) and therefore more vulnerable to a bid. He could also vote against and therefore remove the board (remember the £600 million loss) and replace them with a team that are inclined to his view ( this would be my play). At the end of the day with his holding JB has all the cards, the new shareholders will try and leverage their position which is to our advantage and a deal will happen - I doubt that we will get over £2 but I am hopeful we may be close. Whatever happens next and these things rarely go in a straight line or along a predicted route I think for us as shareholders who have purchased following the drop, this is good news. All entirely my own speculation and of course something entirely different could be happening. ATB

Written opinion

Good work Spacetec, like many have commented here the DOJ have to produce the information to allow INDV the time to muster their defence - my view is that they are constantly playing for time in the hope that INDV will buckle - I don’t believe they will.

I note dodge’s earlier point about the difficulty of getting lawyers to commit but this is a $billion action - INDV have some of the best legal minds working for them - these guys will have provided a written option on which INDV will have relied, we are spending $millions to defend our position, I believe that for once this may be money well spent. Hold hard. ATB

Well I have had to get off the fence - still a little unsure as to next week but at this price I have bought a few. ATB

Ok, this has my attention now. It is unclear if TRG had any current representation on the board, if anyone knows for sure then please let us know. If he didn’t and indeed neither James Benamor or TRG are listed as insiders which could mean that he/they were not consulted concerning the actions and proposals of the board. For someone that has seen his wealth drop about £600 million (assuming £2 per share drop) then I can understand that would be ‘troubling’. The majority holding is listed as 61.36% so short of the 75% we have been using. If I were in his position I would be getting heavily involved here, the fall in the SP happened because the board determined if it wanted to keep on the right side of the regulator it would need to change the business model and put aside growth and profit. The market did not like this and the SP dropped by 75% costing JB £600 million - they must believe this to be a short term over reaction - he may feel differently especially as when the co was trading at £2.50 he had suggested that he would be prepared to sell ie take his money out of the market. He will not be happy and must be considering all his options to achieve the value he had only months ago. There is an awful lot riding on the BoD having made the right call. As a small investor who took advantage of the drop, I can see the logic behind their actions for the long term security of the business and of course of their presumably well paid jobs - you could argue that this has been at the expense of JB. I have already stated that for me I would prefer that AMGO realign and grow back into the 250 maintaining a strong dividend, I believe other short term action is now more likely and I expect that what I will end up with is a reasonably short term capital gain as the business is sold/taken private - now that activist investors have raised their heads I would guess £1 as an absolute minimum and £2 not that unlikely - but of course I am just guessing based on no more information that is available to you. Less than a week to the results should be very interesting to say the least - in the meantime I have taken my holding back to 160k shares and will probably add more. ATB

James Benamor Richmond Group Ltd Woodford Investment Management LLP Total 61.36%

Two RNS’s aw. 1 re shareholding and the second TRG appointment to board. I have not looked back, is this their only appointment or an additional appointment? This is significant as the timing cannot be ignored.

I choose to look at the notification of an activist shareholder taking a position as positive. We cannot know their intention but we could speculate so I will. Activist Investors take a stake in the hope that they can maximise short term value of the SP normally via sale of the company or a radical change of direction. The Richmond Group (TRG) own 75% so whatever happens would have to involve their approval or be at their instigation. If we accept that as a given then in any deal offered to shareholders they would not be able to vote meaning the other 25% of the stock becomes the relevant shareholding or because of the way the rules work 25% of that figure which is actually a holding of 6.25% of the total. This figure is important as it means anyone holding 6.25% either as an individual shareholding or in concert with others can block proposed action from the 75% shareholder and puts them in a very strong position for a seat at the table. Still speculating of course but such a position would help to ensure that we (and of course those that have recently joined us at a very compelling price) get the best deal.

Time will tell but if my speculation is right or wrong the emergence of a new significant shareholder cannot be a bad thing, especially if we see then adding further, at the very least it will help us to understand why the SP may have been driven down whilst the market was filling this order. ATB

Had a quick look Bee - activist investors - interesting.

Guys I think updating us on the court case is useful. I don’t specifically comment on it as the relevance and importance of the general cut and thrust of the process is lost to most of us and I hope that when significant news lands we will read it in a RNS. In the meantime please keep us in the loop.

Hi dodge, I don’t disagree that even a settlement would give the SP a significant lift and a big part of me just wants the uncertainty over. However, if I was a member of the BoD I think it would be my duty, if I believed the claims made against the company were bogus to fight on. The damage to our SP has been done it would be a difficult decision for those in charge to accept responsibility via settlement when they obviously believe absolutely that we are in the right. As shareholder we often look for short term profit but the Directors must surely defend the rights of the company otherwise it will become a free for all. The Chairman’s letter is probably the most forceful statement of its type I have ever read and comes with some liability - this guy is no fool and he would not have commented as he has if he did not totally believe that fighting the case was the right thing to do. Yes I am heavily invested, yes I am showing a loss on that investment but if we are right surely we have to support the board in defending our position otherwise the industry is finished as every Tom, Dick and Lawyer in the system will make some sort of claim as they will see a route to fame and fortune. Hold hard.

I certainly admit that at this price my interest has peaked. The last time we visited these levels I was able to add significantly and did very well but I am not rushing for the buy button just yet. Whilst I certainly believe that you cannot go far wrong at this price I find I still have some reticence to buy. I rarely hold off for an extra 10 or 20p at this level of SP but gold and silver prices are still under the kosh so I think I will wait a little longer. ATB

We knew this was not a share for widows and orphans but the swings in the SP have taken most of us by surprise. I don’t see shorters as an issue, there are none declared ie over 0.5% and as they are never shy to take advantage of an opportunity that they often spot before the rest of us that fact alone should give us confidence. I notice that as TEVA are close to reaching a settlement, which will almost certainly be cash not product, that their SP has risen by well over 50%. I will not yet let go of my belief that this case will be dismissed, I believe the facts as identified within the Chairman’s letter and ancillary documentation on the website together with subsequent events provide a compelling argument. My backstop is a reasonable and sensible settlement - I think less than 100’s millions others think more but only time will give us the answer. I do not have a stop loss as I believe that has been what the market swings have been searching out from many, I will hold until we have a resolution. If we have a significant swing downward on no news I will add but I am unlikely to sell any before the game is over. Whatever your own strategy, if you are invested I wish you well.

Thanks aw, I do not see the High St banks as a particular threat to this market - they do not need the hassle. I believe our biggest threat to be public acceptance of the need for facilities such as AMGO’s. If sentiment went against us by which I mean that it became toxic to be invested in the market sector then Institutions would flee, funding would dry up and even we as individual investors, who I am sure approach this with some degree of anxiety, would find it difficult to invest then AMGO would quickly become a private enterprise which would, in my option at least, not be in the best interests of the borrower. Whilst it is certainly a little unsavourily I believe the Regulator needs to maintain a soft touch to ensure that companies can operate efficiently and profitably whilst at the same time being under the full glare of public scrutiny via a listed platform. I am confident, especially given the BOD’s confirmation that they are remodelling the business that AMGO can do the job properly and I look forward to the results.

Well aw, I have looked at the Debt Camel site as you suggested, it makes interesting reading and as they even provide templates for the disgruntled borrower and guarantors you can understand why people are pressing their luck and having a go at making a claim - I have mixed views but I don’t think I can bring myself to blame them as a win would make a big difference to their lives. I think it comes down to the price of doing business in this particular market and the skill is balancing a speedy process against the requirement for due diligence. I was myself involved in writing one of the first credit scoring systems for a major lending institution back in the mid 80’s - it was not rocket science but the fundamental basis on which a decision was made was the ability and willingness to repay. Back in my day a CCJ meant you had no chance but the market has moved on and like it or not AMGO’s customer base will fall into the category of high risk, probably having proved in the past that they have had loans that they have failed to repay without court involvement. If they could get finance from a high street bank then they would and would not be paying the 48% APR that AMGO charge. AMGO are looking for customers at the level that are not credit worthy enough for the banks but higher than those enslaved to the payday lenders who themselves represent a better proposition than a back street loan shark. AMGO will not get it right all the time, they will want to keep the administration process to a minimum and will make mistakes, those mistakes will cost them, the skill is to do enough things right to produce a profit and provide a service that remains on the right side of the law and ultimately ethical to the hard pressed borrower. Legislation will and I would say should get tighter but whilst there is a market need AMGO require a model that provides a service with the least exploitation to make the venture worthwhile having due regard to the risk. Increased regulation is a barrier to entry and solidifies our position as market leader. I note that AMGO have 350,000 customers so the 400 successful complaints upheld by the ombudsman represents 0.11% which does not feel unreasonably high. I have added a few more today. ATB

Well aw, it’s telling me to buy because it is oversold.

Hi aw, good evening. I have not yet had the opportunity to look at the site specifically but I get a totally different feeling from the figures you provided earlier. 240 complaints 83% found in favour of client is 200 for 6 months that is 400 for the year, again I admit that I do not know how many loan agreements they enter into but to generate the turnover it must be many thousand, therefore a very low and in my view acceptable level especially as the regulator and sentiment will be in favour of those complaining. To do business in this market comes with risk but it also produces a significant profit, achieving the right balance is what makes a good business - I believe that AMGO is one. Fundamentals are strong, BoD aware of public and regulator sentiment and are adjusting the model to reflect this, current SP close to results and anticipated dividend provides an opportunity - I am adding so I am feeling confident, we will soon find out if this is misplaced or premature. ATB

Well for better or worse I have increased my holding again today, now having a little over 100k shares. I am hopeful of positive results and a good dividend, the BoD need to do something positive and significant to reassure shareholders. I would like us to remain listed and push back into 250 but worst case a buyout which would be a bargain on fundamentals at £1+. Your money, your call.

I believe that all the warrants must be exercised by close of play today, if I am correct this should free up the SP going forward and help us establish a true value pending news. ATB

This is one of the few shares that I seem to have got the timing right so far dimi. I believe it to be undervalued but the momentum is down so I will wait to buy back until we are back at £6.