Member Info for BIGBangs

In the unlikely event that JB or any of his contacts reads this board then perhaps he should use his contacts to pick up the shares from the distressed sellers and sit back and watch the SP get back to £2.50 plus - I am sure I would find a way if I had £600 million on the table and it would be much easier than a takeover.

Who cares if they sell Thunder, the sooner we are rid of them the better only then can the SP recover, if it gives us the opportunity to buy more in the process then so be it.

Looking at the RNS it looks like he made that purchase just after the drop. His holding makes him an important player in the larger game. Are you suggesting that it was his decision to make the announcement and that he resigned following the market reaction? Or are you suggesting that he somehow orchestrated the drop and then made a significant purchase to take personal advantage?

2227 you obviously have a great deal of respect for Glen Crawford - I am sure he was a great guy but no problems have come to light. The SP tumbled when the market over reacted to the BOD’s announcement that they were revising the business model and seeking new customers rather than repeat business. They/we anticipated that this might affect the business growth and profitability that fear was removed following today results and webcast. Waiting for a re rate.

Hi aw, I don’t think the optimism faded in fact considering the number of large sells which must be from a distressed holder I think the price held up very well. I would strongly recommend that you listen to the webcast I think it will ease your mind. In relation to the comment at the conclusion of the RNS I think the BoD are just highlighting what we all know - the major shareholder has a lot of control over certain things and they are perhaps trying to illicit support should he try to flex his muscles - some actions require 75% approval - at this stage I read nothing into it but the drop cost him £600 million and he may not have been prepared for it - nobody was. The BoD seem strong and in my view JB would probably be best served by working with them to achieve a re rate that I believe is deserved.

Sorry to see you go aw, I have enjoyed debating various points with you but if your view of the report is so dire I assume you will be selling up to minimise your losses here.

I maintain that struggling funds are using the opportunity to close and we will be well rid of their contestant drip feed into the market crushing any potentially breakout. I also expect a TR1 from a willing buyer who must be hoovering up all these sells as otherwise the price would have crashed. I read the report as good and am happy to hold until the market readjusts to a fair value. Once the seller is spent I would hope to see a steady rise to over £1 which should get us back into the 250 where we certainly deserve to be and once there back to £2/£2.50.

I can accept that our major shareholder is unhappy with the SP but he will either choose to work with the board to get AMGO re rated or he will seek to take this private and go his own way, we already have an activist investor on the register, we may soon see others appearing which would help us maximise value in the event of a sale. While we wait I will enjoy the dividend. ATB

Could be them or Woodford - the sooner we are rid of them the better. Hopefully following the confident presentation and robust broker rating we may see other funds increasing their position at what appear to be bargain prices. I am ready to add if it drops much more - for me this is a clear buy.

Yes - surprising sells Thunder especially when you consider broker ratings following presentation :-

JPMORGAN CUTS AMIGO HOLDINGS PRICE TARGET TO 125 (250) PENCE - 'OVERWEIGHT'

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RBC CUTS AMIGO HOLDINGS PRICE TARGET TO 225 (235) PENCE - 'OUTPERFORM'

Hi SUFC, many of us have found ourselves in a similar position and I am sure we can appreciate your pain. The market moved too quickly for you to act on what has turned out to be unfounded fears. I am sure there will be a number of quick trades today by those that recently bought in and who are content with a quick short term profit - that is short sighted. I believe that with the figures provided today and the outlook going forward with regard to new business the knee jerk mark down in August was massively overdone. I hope for a rerate and that is where I would focus my attention if I was advising JB as I see this as an easier route for him to recoup his lost assets than via a hostile takeover (of course I am assuming that he did not orchestrate it).The BoD are doing a good job and achieving excellent results, why risk changing them? Continue to build the business and work on achieving a rerate that could move the SP significantly in one day. ATB - hold hard.

Nothing about that webcast that caused me any concerns very impressed not only by the information but by the people. Many big funds where in attendance or listening in - all questions answered comprehensively. Strongly suggest you view it yourselves.

I did not make notes as too much going on but he are a few key points:-
Market Leading role model working with the regulator
Considering differentiated pricing model
Considering adjacent business opportunities (higher and lower risk when ready) - already have the leads but currently no product to offer
Encouraging results on new business and expansion into Ireland
Collections team expanding to reduce impairment charge
Continuing with 50% dividend policy
Reducing funding costs
Very conservative provisions
Robust business model
Cash generating
Innovative
Core economics of product are excellent
Implied reduction in uphold rates for complaints - anticipate impairments reducing next year
28.4% return after complains
Focus on improving collection procedures and lending decisions
Working closely, have good relationship with regulator

My view is that the market totally overreacted to the change of business model and misjudged the opportunities that AMGO has for new business. To me the figures prove that they can make the shift without slowing growth whilst improving complaints/collection procedures. My conspiracy theories aside this is a strong well managed business that is massively undervalued and deserving of a substantial re-rate. ATB

These results actually exceed my expectations in every category. Let’s listen to the webcast and catch up later. This growing profitable business should be trading at a higher value and deserves a re-rate. The big fall following the announcement of a change in the business model has proved to be unjustified. ATB

Someone is fairly confident a 225,000 share buy at 60p went through at 16.28.

Has the motion to dismiss failed or are you referring to the other motions that were tabled?

I have read through some very good posts here both for and against FRES. My own view is that FRES has been targeted for some time by shorters trying to get it out of FTSE 100 - the other attempts have failed, I think they will get there this time. The company’s cash has been spent on developing a new mine that will come online next year, that in my view is the best possible use of resource that the BOD could have opted for and it will reap rewards in the future for those that are invested but it has made us vulnerable in the short term. I have a few 1000 shares - I should have held off a little longer before jumping in but FRES has been good to me in the recent past and I am likely to add to my position after the market has done its worst. I am becoming a bit of a conspiracy theorist on a number of boards where a large % of the company is held by a single company and I would not be massively surprised if when the most pain is being felt a bid may suddenly appear - either way short term pain long term gain.

Dodge - just glanced through today’s posts. It is INDV’s proposition that the Grand Jury were mislead/provided with false or erroneous information which lead them to allow the case to proceed.

I think the answer comes on two parts aw, if an offer is made then we have to hope that larger players go into bat to make sure it is as good as can be and we will be in their hands. The more difficult question is without any offer at what price would I sell in the normal course of events? I suppose that would be depending upon the rest of the market, the dividend offered here and the news flow/reporting from AMGO, why sell a good share if you have nothing pressing to do with the cash and have not spotted another opportunity? I suppose I will feel that I have done very well at anything over £1.50, I will review my expectations depending upon events here and elsewhere but for the moment I am happy to hold.

Aw, I was thinking more of actions taken from over £2.50. Either a very unfortunate sequence of events something like:-
1. JB resign as Director
2. JB indicates the the market that he is inclined to sell - price eases off.
3. BoD suddenly decide to review business model and change the focus of the business - price crashes.
4. Various funds start to sell - price falls again.
5. JB decides to get back on the board.
6. Activist investor takes a 3% holding.

For the big crash at 3 surely a lot of shares would have had to be sold - the market unlikely to have just decided to mark it down so significantly on update but no RNS’s showing change of holding. Speculate that a major investor could potentially have sold substantially into the market from £2.50 and bought back at 70p ish - creating a pile of cash to then use to buy up the shares that they did not own. This would be generally against the rules but could work especially if it was all orchestrated over a short period. Or of course perhaps just a very unfortunate sequence of events that cost one guy £600 million? I am sure I don’t know.

Or of course aw, the drop and the takeover by the largest shareholder has always been the plan - you will remember my first comment about major shareholders using all means possible to bring the price down so that they can buy the co on the cheap - only a conspiracy theory but something to mull over - will not stop me holding or adding but as you say we await the half year accounts with interest.

I’m with you M. The company is not under any pressure to settle. The SP has been hit hard but the business is operating well and making substantial profits. I do not rule out a settlement but we as shareholders have probably gone through the worst, the DOJ will have to prove their case or accept that they can’t and give up.

Quite a bit there Aw but most of the answers come to the same thing. As small shareholders we will have little say in what happens next so don’t worry about it. I gave various scenarios of how things might turn out but each would first require JB or those working in concert with him to take up our shares - I think the activist shareholder spotted the opportunity and took a position for a swift return. They cannot be paid more than we are so our interests are almost certainly aligned. Remember that if JB tries to take over then he will not be able to vote on the deal providing the rest of us with more power - a lot will also depend on if the Directors (at the time of the bid) are in favour which reduces the % required to accept. I think the push will be towards £2. If our shares are bought out we have no further interest and will be free to invest elsewhere and whatever happens with AMGO will be nothing to do with us. I think the chances of the status quo remaining are slight but JB could replace the BoD and bring in a new team to get the SP back up and recoup his £600 million - I think we have to assume he is not happy with the turn of events. At this stage in the game our quickest route to profit is with a buyout but as I noted we are little more than spectators. I anticipated that the figures will be OK and progress will be confirmed in attracting new business but generally down on what was reported last year - I think JB has left it too late to launch an attack before then but it will be interesting to see if he votes against the reelection of any Directors who are up for renewal although if he is planning a buyout the rules may work against him. Look out for more RNS’s of people taking larger positions - I see no reason to be concerned or to sell - hold or add.