Member Info for BIGBangs

I just did the same - own an awful lot now but confident.

Not technically directly applicable to ODX but as their partner I think it probably might. Could be included within the RNS we are waiting for tonight or Tuesday morning. Might even cross my fingers.

Just a thought but might be useful to forward the tweet to the PR co and ODX themselves to give them the opportunity to comment.

Got it now, very useful, thank you.

This is excellent news.

I seem unable to load the tweet - might be just me.

Very interesting especially the comment on the additional budget allocated to LFT’s. I see that the UK and US are being considered for inclusion. What they need now is the approval of sovereign tests as a benchmark.

Thank you Gregg - I found it. Tried to cut and paste but couldn’t manage it. But it is surely there just as indicated. Very significant news. I might do a little dance. ATB and thank again for the info.

I have spent quite a bit of time going through the actual document and I can’t actually find the payment - willing to trust that it is still there but….

Hope it is.

Thanks - that is a big chunk of money - looking good.

Not doubting you for a second djm but there is an awful lot of data there. Any chance you might cut and paste the relevant part - I would love to see it.

Thanks Tricky, I am watching but your reviews very accurate and helpful. Gove seems supremely confident, in charge of the room and in full control of subject.

Well put Aberdeenman.

Talking about LFT ‘we should definitely have been using 2,3,4,5million tests per day since last Autumn’ - but it was blocked (by Dept of Heath). DH dropped the ball.

Still worth repeating though TWatcher. Although aware of the Toyota contract to help getting the machinery running as efficiently as possible, I for one had forgotten that the expiry date was for the end of the month. I found the reminder and the Twitter links useful.

I have been asked by friends who are and will remain investors here (minimum holding 100k shares) but who will certainly not be commenting themselves to make some additional points/comments.

1. My figure of 40% operating costs is very high as most cost will have been included within the gross profit figure. (Obviously if I reduced this figure then the SP would rise significantly at each point).
2. The Mologic/ODX test is significantly more accurate therefore useful than the Innova test.
3. Innova received early orders as they were the first to be able to offer what were determined at the time to be adequate tests this led to signification cost of sale benefits to them.
4. Although we cannot remember the price of the Innova test (or may not have been told) we believe it is higher than the test we hope to provide.
5. We are not afraid that Innova claim that they are considering a UK production facility - time delay, profits offshore, improved test required.
6. Consider the market cap that even my, possibly harsh figures represent: SP - 1.86=335m 2.49=448m 3.11=560m All reasonably achievable and to not feel outlandish.

As I am certainly frustrated by the delay and suffering paper losses due to the subdued SP, I decided it was time I made myself some notes as to why I am/remain invested.

These are my core beliefs here, if you disagree with them or perhaps do not agree with most of them then you will not be able to agree with my figures and in my view should probably not be invested here.

What do I believe:-
-ODX are not responsible for the delay - I certainly do not think they have done everything 100% correctly but only management by hindsight is 100%.
-ODX will sell everything that they can produce - fundamental to my thinking and on current information this will be 2m per week for ease let’s call it 100m per annum. (I also believe that this figure could increase if demand continues but for now I will disregard this advantage)
-UK Govt will follow through on comments that it wants UK independence for the production of testing / PPE - ODX one of the companies chosen to do this.
-UK Govt / World Scientists correct that the virus will be with us for years to come but over time become no more threatening than Flu.
-UK in fairly good position currently but many parts of the world struggling and will require mass testing a long time.
-ODX/Finncap were correct in speculating minimum of 50% gross margin on all production.
-ODX have increased their staffing levels to 250 staff who have not been idle waiting for news to land. Estimated staffing costs going forward £15m per annum.
-ODX will receive confirmation of £374m Govt Contract over 2 years which I will take as 50m tests per annum at £3.74 per test.
-ODX will be able to sell own branded tests at a higher price say £5 per test.
-There is room for more that one Sovereign test in the Uk and Mologic will certainly be one of them.
-Antibody tests will be required and supplied by ODX
-News due imminently

So what does that mean to us as ODX shareholders.
As above I believe there is potential for own brand tests to be sold at higher price but for the purposes of my calculations I will use £3.74 as selling price.
£3.74 x 50% = £1.87 gross profit per test
£1.87 x 100m = £187m gross profit per annum.
£187 - 40% all operating costs = £112m net profit after tax
£112m x 3 (NCYT p/e) = £336m
£336m / 180m (shares in issue) = £1.86 SP

P/E 3 = £1.86
P/E 4 = £2.49
P/E 5 = £3.11

P/E 10 = £10.38

Current SP 70p

The actual number of tests is yet to be confirmed

Whilst I am always ready to acknowledge that it is not the job of the BOD to maintain the SP, I would certainly be grateful for some/any positive news being released that might halt the steady decline we have been suffering. I am not looking to sell I would just like a little reassurance that all/some/most of the things we are waiting for are coming to fruition.

Apologies but it appears to me that the significance of these early tweets has been lost as the thread developed. I am reassured by confirmation that the 18% margin was after costs for phase 1 and that phase 2 will be inline with the company/ Finncaps earlier predictions of 50%. I believe lessons have been learned and that those responsible will not fall into the trap of issuing speeding tickets following potentially manipulative tweets by some intended to undermine the SP by deliberately misunderstanding the bidstats publication. Although somewhat frustrated I have held my position and will see this through. I am concerned that after a year devoted to the production of tests we have yet to receive significant orders from anyone but I do believe they will come and the SP will move significantly upward. ATB

TWatcher, of course this may have changed with the Visitect test now (hopefully) in full manufacture - I don’t see any reason why the Govt. would be difficult and not allow the use of their machines to produce tests at least until they confirm their own need for the capacity. I am also expecting more news on Antibody test production although to be fair I have been waiting for this news for quite a while.