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I don’t disagree Wadogara but there are 60 billion people in the world all succeptable to the virus, if our market is just 5,3,1 billion of those we will do well.

Wadogara, I just can’t see demand being an issue. The UK alone offers us a massive market place and our current 100m capacity is just a drop in the ocean and of course Europe, the US, Australia and the rest of the world provide potentially limitless demand. My hope is that we can increase our manufacturing capacity working 24 hour shifts and of course using the knowledge we have gained over the last 18 months there will be nothing to stop expansion. Like you I am not deterred by the naysayers, keep the faith, now is the time.

Ah, blew it at the end, mic drop!

Guys, it should be obvious to all that my figures give a fair share of the pie to all and includes £5 plus VAT for the validation meaning my guesstimate comes out at £13.50 against the £9 figure you maintain, which was of course prior to the new validation process, (I could easily trim a little off my other figures) but really as Okehurst correctly points out my argument was that selling At £3.75 gives us £1.75 per unit or £175m per annum - that will do. Mike drop.

TWatcher again I think I have shown that the ultimate retails price bears little relevance to the manufactures cost and profit, personally ODX selling the test at £3.5 ($4) gives us a very acceptable profit of £1.75 per test = assuming my maths holds up this time, that is £175,000,000 per annum. Whatever the retails price, determined by the market, our margin is safe and in my view, very acceptable.

Sorry I note that basic maths let me down in my earlier post, it should read:- 3.5+2+1+5+5=£16.5 x 20%=£19.80

Some people will spend their time trying to beat the system, most of us will not. I don’t really understand your point TWatcher, you have already agreed with me in a previous debate that PCR testing is incapable of dealing with mass testing so what PCR can or cannot provide is now irrelevant it is incapable of providing a service at the numbers that will be required. I have more faith in the second generation of LFT’s as represented by Visitech and Mologic so please let’s stop bleating about PCR which were themselves floured and instead spend our time dealing with the new reality that is LFT’s.

At the risk of out staying my welcome this morning I would suggest another possibility. Would it be unreasonable for HMG to include a ‘green’ charge within the sale price say £2 to cover the addition recycling charges and contribute to fuel offset as the tests will be purchased by those intending to travel? Maybe to esoteric for a share chat room but personally I think it would be a great idea.

Individual people are generally good, law abiding and not uncaring, society is made up of individuals and we have proven ourselves, when the chips are down, to be willing to obey the rules. We will not, however, be taken for mugs, as the PCR test system took hold we knew we were being exploited. Providers would advertise a cheap price but that item would be sold out and the alternatives would be much more expensive. The PCR system collapsed before virtually unrestricted travel was a possibility. Millions of us have a pent up desire for sunnier climes and so once again demand, this time for LFT, will quickly outstrip supply. HMG have already told us that before travel you will have to complete a passenger locator form including a test booking number supplied by an approved testing provider. Details are still sparse about how we will subsequently upload photographic evidence of the test result, of course this will have a cost, will it be included within the price of the original test or as a separate additional charge? The market will determine the overall cost and we can but hope that validated test are UK produced (I am not very confident that this will be the case) but we know that Mologic can successfully produce a product for sale in third world countries at $2 (1.75) a go, there is no reason to believe that we could not do the same but as a commercial operation our trade price would be at least $4 (£3.50) and at 100million tests per annum that is a very significant profit and results in a SP of several £ easily. To guess at a retail price 3.5+2 (picking &distribution)+1(wholesaler)+5(retailer)+£5(validation)=£14.50 presumably plus 20% vat (2.9)= £17.4 and giving each party to the process a reasonable profit for the number involved. This could be a few £ more to cover costs I have not envisaged or additional profit, most of these costs would be post manufacture so even if the Chinese do come try and dump inferior products on us then they would only be marginally cheaper. I think next week we will finally be happy with our investment decisions, like NCYT the SP may, having risen linger before jumping up and will not steady, assuming we are paid on time, until we have a better idea about just how long LFT’s will be required but a P/E is 3 or 5 is, in my view, increasingly likely. ATB

Nope.

You can bet that private equity investors will be looking at this very closely. They do not appear to have shown their hand by taking a notifiable interest but they are too clever for that. The big questions for them will be how long can they wait, what will the price rerate to on early news and how long do they believe that the market will remain. Getting it right will be tricky and if things suddenly start to move they will miss the boat but that is why they are paid the big bucks.

Trade away to your hearts content Captain - I will hold.

I am very much looking forward to the day when the SP is far north of today and the board is full of comments about what a brilliant hand Colin King and his board have played and how all of the pain was worthwhile - we have certainly had our share of detractors. Maybe not today (?) but news is coming.

Well it certainly will not be because they have missed it so they must have made a decision not to post anything at this time. My glass as ever is half full so I believe this is positive. ATB

I notice that despite a lot of press comment and government statements we have not had any of the usual tweets from ODX. As others have suggested I view this as positive - in my opinion they are waiting for the big one to land before saying anything.

Chris zzz, goodness me, good spot, the figures show;

Ammendments to Previous Notice
2. Estimated total value
143750000 518750000

3. Initial estimated total value
143750000 518750000

CPV Codes
33141625 - Diagnostic kits

I calculate that at over £15 per test!

Your money your call but having held hard through the pain I have just added another 20k - the stars have finally aligned. ATB

Interesting it goes on to state,
All travellers must complete their Passenger Locator Form prior to travel, including a test booking reference number supplied by a testing provider. Travellers will be able to upload their test booking reference to the Passenger Locator Form from 22 October for arrival in the UK from 24 October.

Which suggests that they have a protocol in place to ensure one person one test backed up by photo which goes a long way to ensure compliance - ok the same person could take both test if a husband wanted to cover for a wife who was feeling ill but why would you?

I don’t disagree that there is always a way to cheat the system. Evidently the old rules didn’t work that well and we don’t know the procedure that we will be asked to follow going forward. If I was you I would avoid your friends or you will catch it, I can pretty much rely on mine so we will be ok.

Girds, society only operates when most people do the right thing - we don’t know the details of the process yet, have a little faith.
Hedgefun - I think it is now or never the next few days could be amazing. Nothing to do now for those of us invested.

I wish everyone who has stuck with it ALB.