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The longer he holds of talking about the elephant in the room the angrier I get. Great CD4 has been starved of attention and may improve in 23 - now for the love of God talk about antigen testing.
I wonder if anyone has ever suggested that CK might want to write it all down and then simply read from his notes - I would suggest as he is obviously not the most confident speaker that it would be worth considering.
Can I make a late call for “you know” the sign of an educated man.
Captain, I don’t think they would ask for the equipment back, as you say, what would they do with it? As we took the equipment at their request and in anticipation of orders I would expect, if we can utilise it for commercial purposes they would begin to charge us something like £2/300k for annum as a rental charge - good enough providing we get the orders otherwise it is of no use to us. Not a problem for now.
I think the GIF (whatever that means) of the guy who keeps buying high an selling low is most appropriate here.
Hi Regulator, getting the approvals is certainly key and we are well advanced although the RNS does state that there is a backlog (shameful) and timelines are still unclear. The RNS also indicates that achieving approvals in the US may be prohibitively expensive so fingers crossed for home use here and EU.
Thanks Ebbs - you made me smile which is quite an achievement today.
I wanted to keep away today but that is easier said than done. I was scrolling through ODX tweets and threads although I am not on Twitter and find it difficult to navigate - my bag, I came across a tweet from Tricky and wanted to comment.
Tricky, I feel you pain, we are in the same boat. It is a little like Schrödinger’s cat - loosely until you sell your loss is both alive and dead. Perhaps it is a good thing that ODX have finally ditched their reliance on the government contract, although expired it could be reinstated and that would be a positive confirmation that the gov are still committed but if not then surely best for us to move on? The approvals we seek are still within the system and are well advanced, certainly as much as any other UK company and if/when they land it could certainly be to our advantage that our full production can be dedicated to commercial operations and orders could come in from all over the world, a simple rental agreement on the gov supplied equipment is not onerous and could be a positive. We still have a strong cash balance and there is no suggestion that we will need a fund raise. It is hard to see through the mist at the moment but nothing has actually changed other than we have ditched a contract that was producing nothing and restricting our opportunities. I am not wild about how ODX have acted but my glass remains half full although I have ditched, and stamped on, my rose tinted spectacles. My advice for what it is worth is do nothing with the share, spend some time doing something you enjoy, listen to the presentation and as Covid is not going away concentrate on the possibilities for a company able to produce 100 million tests a year. ATB.
Continued.
Thank goodness for the Dam contract but this alone will not be enough to see us back to previous highs and to reach its potential we also need more approvals. The reality for me is that if the SP fell or rose 50p or more today I would not have been selling, although you will all understand just how much I wanted it to rise not fall. We are where we are and although I and I suspect others are hurting the SP will provide a good opportunity for institutional investors to take a position and I would feel a lot better if they now did - funny how they manage to time such things so well. I will be tuning into the presentation and hope that Colin manages to pull something out of the bag but other than that I think I will leave the board alone for today and find something to do that might cheer me up a little.
I am certainly feeling the pain this morning. The market reaction to the RNS has been overwhelming and damaging, I cannot yet bring myself to look at my accounts as I do not wish to put a number on the losses my book will be showing, so for my own peace of mind I will put that off for now. I am amazed that ODX chose today to advise the market that the government contract has expired and agree with others that this would appear to be improper unless they were only advised of this yesterday which I sincerely doubt. Trying to look through the fog, where are we and how is this different. Importantly we still have a strong cash balance and if we have continued to use agency staff then this can be maintained by cutting our costs to suit our sales and I see no need for a fund raise. I ask myself is it better to finally shrug off the government contract as it has produced nothing and finally concentrate on commercial opportunities that will be available once we achieve the approvals that we so desperately need? I believe those applications are well advanced and will land at some point. No longer needing to allocate half of our production capacity to HMG could be an advantage if orders do come in and I still believe they will although I can no longer bring myself to speculate from where. If we have to pay HMG a rental on the machinery then this is normal - it might even be cheap. I note FinnCap maintain that the SP is more than underpinned by the non Covid business but that is not why any of us invested and we need to be producing test during the pandemic. Despite comments from some to the contrary nothing has yet changed my opinion that testing will be with us for a number of years to come. Frankly I am disgusted that HMG continue to order tests from China when we could be producing them in the UK - simply if the UK were generating taxes on the LFT’s rather than sending money offshore the real cost to UK taxpayer is halved and it is disappointing that such an opportunity has been missed - we cannot blame ODX for that. I reflect on ABDX who themselves were oversold to about 27p if I recall correctly and I believe the same thing has happened here. The hit we have taken this morning is opportunistic and we should come off these lows quite quickly but will not see any real growth until we achieve approvals and receive orders.
Maybe, I just accepted Bighero’s proposition that the figures had increased who knows and frankly who cares it’s a big market and we will sell all that we can produce - one day.
You just have to hope that someone knows what they are doing. Could this possibly be the test that the we (?) are going to produce onshore as per Bell’s comments on radio 4?
Whether it affects us or not at the moment the Americans are in fact crying out for more tests.
Now this is getting scary,
https://mol.im/a/10238113
Continued
They have funded our machinery, they have named us as one of the 3 companies they believe will form the backbone of the UK diagnostics industry, they have provided us with a contract for £375 million and advanced us several million £ as a sign of good faith and they have facilitated introductions with other companies so that we can, as we will see tomorrow, keep ahead of our costs while we are waiting. They could and should have done better but what they have done is significant. HMG may care about the UK diagnostics industry and therefore ODX but they care nothing for shareholders and our self imposed timelines, we do not register on the government’s radar. So what have ODX been doing during this inforced wait, cementing their relationship with other companies, particularly Mologic and pushing for approvals both here and abroad, HUA, professional use, EU, FDA. We may be disappointed with the progress but no one perhaps other than Surescreen are doing any better within the UK and very few in Europe. For some reason the Chinese were ready and waiting with tests and as we have offshored most of our manufacturing over the last 40 years we had to start from scratch. But we have been building and streamlining our manufacturing process and we are now certainly ready to produce tests reliably and at volume. A difficult 18 months certainly but I remain confident that we are ready, that LFT will be with us for years to come and we will be producing them, I continue to believe that news is imminent and that the SP could easily achieve …..well significantly more than it is today. Hold Hard.
As we sit on the cusp of another reporting cycle perhaps it is time to reflect on where we are? Probably about 12 months ago I asked the same question of myself, why am I and should I remain invested? Looking back I have added when I should have been reducing, I have anticipated imminent news time and time again, I have boldly given predictions of £2.5+ SP, I have disregarded warnings from critics that the price would fall and although I realise they care nothing for my investment they were, probably, for all the wrong reasons, right. I sit heavily invested and with a substantial loss on the book but I remain reluctant to sell, frequently consider adding more shares and would certainly consider my position as a strong hold but why? What more could ODX or CK have done over the last 18 months to improve the shareholders position? This is more difficult to answer than I had anticipated. During this time HMG have moved the goalposts more times that I can remember, Government officials and recognised insiders have gone on the airwaves or taken to Twitter and fuelled our understanding that Chinese orders were temporary and that they wished to build a UK diagnostics industry fit for the future so we would never again be dependent upon imports for our countries health and safety. Despite this we struggle to achieve approval for a UK produced test and despite having built what we believe to be a superior test we are constantly put on hold while yet more inferior tests are shipped in from China - it is difficult for me to understand the reason why. But what have HMG actually done for us over the same period, quite a lot actually.
ODx cannot hold information back to make a big announcement with their report which makes the next few days really important. We all know what we are expecting and many of us believe that a lot of news is (over)due. I am looking forward to next week and remain confident. ATB.
With thanks to HappyDays2U on the ABDX site this clip from the BBC which I had not seen shows how much the US needs LFT’s.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-59249347