Member Info for bigbadbob79

Sitting patiently on my stash, it's going to rerate sooner or later!

@Tjay09 you aren't the only one by any means. I bought at 180p and sold at 400p. This is the ten bagger + multi bag dividends that I let go!
Beyond frustrated!

The kit they are buying is earth moving, not mining kit. This is to remove the overburden so the HWM machines can then extract the coal (and presumably then do the remediation once mining is finished).

Nobody here can give you advice on what to do, and you shouldn't listen to random people on a bulletin board.

The company has a market cap now of £133m. Would you buy this business for £133m, knowing it's effectively broke and is more than likely going to end up majority owned by the lenders? Your answer to that question will help you decide what you should do. Frankly, I'm surprised the market is still valuing it at £133m.

It's the second line in the RNS that has me intrigued - seems more to come later today and it "will be a defining moment"...

It's a bull**** business and I'm surprised it managed to raise so much private money in the years before listing. Why anybody thought there was a fortune to be made in ready meals is beyond me. The margins in that game are wafer thin, and if you want to order ready meals for delivery you can get them delivered by any supermarket.
Latest RNS just confirms they haven't a clue. Propectus was all about the high disposable incomes of their target consumer, and now they're reducing prices to levels at which they will make no profit. And the food must be absolutely awful quality if they are flogging meals at £2.50 a go.

Does it? If grain really does start moving out of Odessa, surely there will be trains being used to bring more grain to Odessa - both from existing stockpiles and this years harvest.

Shearclass, I agree with all of your thoughts. I also noted a hint that capex may have been higher than expected as there's a line about the underground mine having needed a lot of money spending on it.
RNS was not very well structured IMO, a bit scattergun and lack of hard figures other than number of trains and expected future production doesn't help sentiment.
I'm interested in what's happened to the additional money they raised a few months ago, ostensibly to buy more acreage or another mine.

Actually, coal is perishable, to an extent. Coal can lose up to 25% of its calorific value in storage, depending upon they type of coal, how it's stores and for how long.

Agree. I will accumulate more on any further price weakness. Great business doing what it promises without any fuss.

The real dilution is in the second RNS. 225,000,000 shares issued to Veative, plus another £5.2m worth of shares at the 5 day average price following relisting. I think the share price will tank on relisting, so that'll be another significant dilution.

I was going to buy back in here last week, till I heard the Sunday Roast amateurs had another "interview" lined up. Decided I'd keep my powder dry as it would almost certainly tank the SP, just as it did last time, and the time before that.
Think I'll sit on my hands for a while, no rush to buy in here, chart looks quite bearish still.

Comical. Rowland has been on Twitter for months saying "No, we don't need to raise any money", backed up by Mode fanbois saying people pointing out the cash burn are wrong/shorters/derampers. Lo and behold, they have to raise £2m of very expensive money.
They'll be back for more by early 2023.

Jeez, the country is in absolute chaos. There's going to be no mining licence, or anything else happening for months if not years. People have no fuel, no food, no medicine. The country is bankrupt and there are mobs rioting.
You really think all is rosy???

Is it just me or are those grades not very exciting?
Oh well, another one that I've known I should have ditched ages ago. I'll learn one of these days!

SuperSym. Confess was interested when price approached 60p yesterday. But todays falling knife does not interest me one bit, I'll let it settle and maybe invest with a cool head. I suspect price will tend to sink lower over next few sessions - probably with some spike upwards in the interim as it's clear a load of traders and P&D artistes are in on the action for now.

Hmm MasksNewNorm.
The company might "expect" the 2nd HWM to be on similar terms. But what if MHW disagree? Define "similar".
If I was MHW I'd be saying "Well, your product selling price has doubled since you took the first machine. You tried to undercut me buying your own and got your fingers burnt. General inflationary pressures blah blah etc etc. It's gonna cost a bit more this time, Mr Wilson"
What if the permit isn't received, or comes with onerous conditions?

Nothing is a given in this game.

Exactly Wolfbag, and there are far better ways to insulate yourself against the risk of failing to make contracted production anyway.

Yes I can see that POV.
However, what is the reality of using the third machine as a spare? These are pretty large pieces of kit.. The 2 HWMs are working in different areas. What's the logistic of getting the "spare" to cover if one break down? Can you even get it to the working face in one piece or does it need to be broken down and reassembled? If so, surely it's quicker to repair the broken down machine. Even if you can rapidly deploy it, who's going to crew it? MHW? Are they going to take all the safety risks with their blokes running someone else's patched up second hand machine? If not MHW, then who and where do these people come from at short notice?
It's unusual for mining (or any industrial operation actually) to have such redundancy in main plant items. You don't have large pieces of kit sat there "just in case", it's a very poor use of capital (and opex, as it still needs maintaining even if not used) and stuff left sitting tends to not work reliably when called up. If you want to cover your production commitments in case of a breakdown, there are other, more capital efficient ways of doing that.

No, I think the purchased HWM is very broken. Presumably they thought it would be cheaper than taking up the option of the second rig from MHW, but that's turned out not to be the case.

Am I reading between the lines too much when the RNS makes me think the purchased machine is FUBAR and unlikely to ever work? Bit of a waste of capital to have it sat there as a "spare". Maybe the bargain HWM that they nought has turned out not to be such a bargain?
Leasing another before getting the own you own into operation doesn't make sense from a financial POV and I can conclude only that this wasn't the plan.