Member Info for big-blue

I am surprised the environmental lobby hasn't jumped on the drop in flights and tried to stop any return to normal levels. But then again, how are they going to jet off to the dozens of conferences in exotic locations around the world every year. Never in Middlesborough on a wet wintery day, always a safari resort in Africa, good scuba diving in the Bahamas or luxury hotels in SEA. Funny that isn't it!

The MoU with EU over finance industry should have swept the market into a very positive up day. But nobody is referencing it anywhere - almost buried news. It is very frustrating when such major and significant news is dismissed by the narrative makers for far more trivial news - we can now meet up in the park trumps an agreement that underwrites one of the biggest parts of our economy.

Oh well, hey ho - like we keep telling each other, this is just a sentiment driven share and the real world has no material effect. Well today proves that!

20 second test, great.

BUT HOW MUCH!!!

If the cost is over a tenner - -it'll be a difficult sell. Any hint of profiteering and people will just simply defy it out of instinct.

I have no reason to change my target for IAG to reach, if not surpass, sp of 250 on April 12th [2021!]. And I am still expecting 300 by year end, although that might be very conservative now.

"while in power can introduce temporary laws as they see fit as long as they are passed in parliament"
except in the case of using the Royal Prerogative. I have some deep inside knowledge of how UK government works and EU commission. The fights and demarcation lines behind the scenes often left me wondering how the government ever managed to function. It is one huge multi-dimensioned compromise - until you get to the doors of the EU, then it 'was' down on your knees and hope they didn't kick you too hard in the teeth. Many out there have no understanding of how fortunate we are that we really have extradited ourselves from the European project, but the fight won't be over until the whole EU project falls apart.

WRT IAG and the politics affecting the company, everything is compromise, which is why I expect defined tourist zones to be opened up, such as the holiday islands. It is quid pro quo and the UK will not be averse to making good relations allowing travel long haul whilst negotiating those infamous trade deals!! Spock's 3 dimensional chess is nothing compare to the treasury, foreign office and 10 Downing Street triangle. But you always have to keep the 360 view. We are all assuming that Russia won't suddenly use it's airspace access as a revenue raising and political tool. Or China! The alternative routes to HK or Australia are long and difficult. So much can go right, so much can go wrong.

April 5th v April 12th
https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/air/pm-hints-at-announcement-on-overseas-holidays-on-april-5
I suspect Boris miss-spoke and that he was to receive an interim report on the 5th that otherwise wouldn't be public but now the impression has been reported that April 5th will be the announcement day. I am not convinced and I suspect that the spin out of this muck up will be a list of suggestions in the interim report announced for 'public consultation' ahead of the report proper on April 12th. There is no logic announcing the results of the review a week before the review has been announced. However, I was looking at the week before as a sentiment guide through various leaks to determine whether to hold or bail. I will say that week is now going to be more of an open air bun fight of the various lobby groups rather than nudge theory leaks trying to manipulate the final result. Note also that April 5th is a bank holiday so again that is a very odd day for such important news. PMQs is on the 7th with only one preceding working day so the short week could be used to wrong foot some of the news narratives from settling in. Could be a wild week with swings in sp as spook stories abound.

Forced 7 days isolation on a private beach and villa in Phuket. That's a tough one, lol.

As an aside, the pandemic laws cannot be described as 'of' the democratic process as they were not in the party manifestos and nobody voted for them. Now it is a bit crass to call out a situation like the pandemic and say that there was no policy statement in a manifesto as to how such a situation would be handled. The law is enforced by consent, that is the people consent to the extraordinary law despite there being no democratic basis for it. In general, in the UK, unexpected events are entrusted to the government and in the most part the management is accepted at the time and rigorously examined after in enquires designed to inform the next incident to be managed without an express policy in a manifesto. Often these enquiries are used as political footballs though and the outcome more woke than of practicle use.

As the vaccinations are implemented, as countries express a willingness to accept visitors whatever the conditions, the consent part of the application of the law begins to be put under stress. Around the world there have been increasing levels of hostility as lockdowns are continued when the population start believing [rightly or wrongly] that lockdowns should be lifted or amended. Even Merkel had to do a sudden U turn the other day and politicians around the world are going to increasingly find their hands forced rather than taking the lead. That is why the UK government review on 12th April is as important as the road map announcement. Get it wrong and the consent will quickly evaporate and there will be a summer of rioting rather than happy holidays.

It is likely the democratic response to the pandemic, in the UK at least, will be statements and policies in manifesto's giving indications of how future national events will be managed. By that time I might have formed a political party and you can all vote for me, me, me......

If I have two jabs and want to go to Thailand on the basis that they are allowing entry of two jabbers, how would a UK travel ban work? Would it be legitimate to fine me £5000 for flying out there? Is the fine only applicable if I return? If there are no variants reported for me to import, on what basis would the travel restriction be based?

The travel ban was always problematic and if there isn't accommodation for holiday travel in the up coming April 12th review, I can see this being taken to the courts and the law being ripped to shreds. The restriction can only work if the rest of the globe is in lockdown and variants are know to be around in overseas destinations - the rational behind travel corridors and red lists.

If UK government isn't careful, this could be a horrible mess and ultimately any scheme they propose be over turned in the courts.

Expect very large rises across the board Monday, MoU reached on Financial services with EU, joint regulatory framework - good news for city and EU basically gives up trying to take over London role. We Won!

POWER TO THE PEOPLE!!!

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/west-yorkshire-devolution-deal?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_source=1d6a2a68-8242-4757-8354-815732eaf8cb&utm_content=immediately

"All IAG airlines can ramp up to >70% capacity at short notice.""

And the rest!! Now I noted the other day that Norwegian had kept a couple of south American and USA destinations on their travel map - and the press report form Bank of America points out that IAG are seeing strong bookings in "Spanish and Latin American routes are the strongest".

I'm raising my stake to a tenner that Norwegian will recommence flights to Rio and Buenos Aires, and to the two in the USA. Also, I am going to sticj my neck out and say that there will be a form of code share with IAG [BA] to meet international travel covenants of repatriation rules or whatever is required to keep the slots. That would be good for BA as up-selling of Norwegian passengers could go to BA business and 1st.

And I still say, no matter how many planes every airline gets aloft there will still not be enough seats to go around.

Already heavy with IAG but decided to average down on Easy by doubling holding. RR also near back to break even. Free ride with RTN rights looks like 20% immediate return just ahead of the alfresco open up. And still just over two weeks before April 12th, or just over 1 week before the leak window begins and we get a sense of what will be implemented May 12th.

After the vaccine roll out reaches a degree of herd immunity, the global narrative will be moved to one of living with COVID alongside all the other viruses. They have always been around, they will always be around. With vaccines, it is manageable.
I am a little surprised the narrative has not in fact started. When quoting the daily death toll, now they should be putting up comparative numbers, deaths from pneumonia, influenza, road accidents and drug abuse (including alcohol).

Get the pandemic in perspective now, lift the stupid mask law and then the spread will dramatically decline. Unfortunately so many people pinned their reputation to the masks from media to politicians without understanding what they actual do. Now they are in a big hole and this reporting error has led to tens of thousands of unnecessary dead and extended economic lockdowns crippling peoples finances. And all for an anti-Trump stunt. Will it ever be reported openly? Now chance.

What is the hourly rate in the deramp boiler room these days?

Important moment yesterday. The EU commission sent out a directive to impound vaccines destined for UK (but no where else and only the non-profit making vaccine) and the heads of states said no.

Watch that develop regarding holidays. We will soon find out how temporary the £5000 fine is, which is after all another sop to the lockdown lobby which has a time out built into it on 12th May. When member states ignore commission directives to ban UK holiday makers (Brexit sour grapes), the commission will be further weakened and the exit out of the union strengthened. Don't let the anti-travel rules bother you that IAG will not be able to trade in the holiday sector. They are temporary transitory rules implemented specifically to appease a lobby group within cabinet that have taken umbridge against a tiny group of people with the resources and private jets.

no air travel this year?

Let's check that

flightradar24.com

Ooohhhhh....... sky is full of them now

Sorry, to clarify, Ryanair is the third party, your agent that you bought through, is who refunds you irrespective of their relationship with Ryanair. That has been the main refund problem, agents and intermediaries trying to get refunds from their suppliers FIRST before remunerating the buyer. The below should have read 'Trying to get a refund via an agent...'.

Trying to get a refund via a third party is always a pain as the people you handed over the money too are the issue. Your contract is with them, not with the third party. The anti-Ryanair spin has been around for years and is getting rather tiresome. 'They' may have taken Freddie Laker down, but budget carriers have learned to bite back.

GB, you are 100% incorrect;

https://www.ryanair.com/ie/en/refundfaqs/directbookings

You can reschedule, voucher or cash refund. That has been around since 1st lockdown.

GB, do not fly on Ryanair - you sound like the sort of passenger with an attitude that gives the crew a hard time and not the sort of person I like sharing a cabin with! In fact, please do not fly anywhere except a private jet.

I predict, travel rules will be that entry and exit to every country will require a passport stamp. Despite not being part of Schengen, I never had my passport stamped every time entering EU. More typical everywhere else. I suspect some form of online registration declaring where you intend to go, dates and so on will be required. A warning of short notice travel restrictions will be the norm for a few years. The introduction of some sort of airport test is a 50/50. The logistics with a return to large numbers of travellers is problematic. I can see a lobby forcing some sort of testing which quickly falls apart trying to implement it. Further, you are not running gene sequencing on the spot so you have no way of spotting particular variants. I see plenty of symptom screening going on. I remember on a lay over in Beijing every passenger was being screened for a temperature as we walked form the aeroplane. That will be great as it will actually identify people with a much wider range of viruses and possibly reduce flu epidemics too! I expect that the review will avoid as far as possible any additional cost such as expensive tests. If they don't, the return to full flight will be difficult, if the travel rules are low to no cost and do not interfere with the flow through the terminal then I expect a very rapid return to full aeroplanes. IAG will be playing catch up along with all the rest.

GB, what on Earth are you talking about?