RE: War in Ukraine12 Mar 2022 16:52
That, fordm, is the rationale objective expectation. What is the confidence level any of at applies to a single minded Putin surrounded by terrified yes men and a self-reinforcing propaganda machine making some very bizarre claims as facts? I am sure the psychologist have delivered the damming and unequivocal assessments that Putin has no internal barriers to using any and all weapons as a matter course. Biden might hold back nato in a vain hope a miracle might happen, but the scenario of nukes being used and now chem weapons is fast approaching.
The big, big, big question is how secure the chain of command is to get a successful launch, and then a detonation. How well have those nuclear shells been maintained. There hasn't been live testing for years.
When I did my physics degree, we were taught some detail about what is required to obtain a successful uncontrolled chain reaction over a shot enough time to avoid inflation of the fissile material. It is not as simple as the tests in the 50s and 60s indicated. The battlefield might simply get contaminated with a lot of duds!