Member Info for big-blue

When do you think the ceasefire will come Big Blue?

Well, being 'out' day trading could be a very expensive mistake. It could happen at any time. We currently believe the talks are being fed back to Putin who is determining the trajectory of the settlement. Or is he????? He may already be a puppet of the inner circle or other soon to be new leader. He of course could still have total control but the whole system is collapsing around him. Has he made a deal with some inner group to try and rescue some victory honour before stepping aside? Is he held up in a bunker surrounded by loyal armed guards whilst other players direct the talks.

I think the UK assessment is the Ukraine only hs to old out for 10 to 14 days until the Russian army is effectively beaten. Belarus could change and help the Russians but I suspect they will smell Putin already burning and edge to the next regime.

Full cessation within 14 days on the present conventional situation. Chem or nukes and I can see nato going in but failing to take the opportunity to totally crush Russia removing its nuclear arsenal in the process.

"China will not let Russia fall", to late! Russia has already fallen under unprecedented sanctions. Even if all sanctions were removed tomorrow, the switch for gas and oil from elsewhere has already begun so Russia is very much poorer going forward a decade. It's clout in international affairs has evaporated with its crazy claims and on the ground its forces, including in the air have been humiliated. Mark my words, Russia has already fallen.

China want to minimize any impact of sanctions being felt by itself. It will have figured out by now only regime change in Moscow will do that since the Ukrainians are nowhere giving in and moe and more sanctions are being added by the day. China plays a canny allie for cheap natural resources but will want the settlement sooner to try and begin to roll back sanctions that impact on them. You have to treat the Chinese as professional business men when dealing with them as they are very much more advanced than most popular rhetoric allows.

I think, sunsurfer, the sp has one last covid 'shot in the arm'; when US removes pre-flight testing.

Shot in the arm, ha, on form today, unlike the sp.

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-kyiv-czech-poland-slovenia-visit/31753678.html

That's guts. Ukraine doesn't have control of the skies so the transport will be vulnerable.

Fed rate concerns, still bigger impact than war!

https://intelnews.org/2022/03/15/01-3171/

When the rats in the cage starting eating each other...........

https://mothership.sg/2022/03/elon-musk-vladimir-putin/

Even Richard Branson would not go this far seeking self promoting publicity. Using the war and suffering to generate headlines for yourself is pretty disgusting.

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/813498.html
This is positive

You have to have a twitter account to see that link.

Don't they know there's a war on?

18th, bugger. So have to do one for UK for Wed, but for Canaries end of month. OK, half a bugger then.

Oh and me, I do a bit on importing exporting on the side!

Big weapons! Aircraft, fighter aircraft, trainers [BAe Systems, Qinetiq, ARB], wings, engineering, big infrastructure engineering, project management, software [high end], security, upscaling and downscaling production analysis, chemicals [purity], production lines , robots, massive and minow diggers [JCB caterpillar] WHISKY, BEER, The best wine in the world, BUCKFAST, FORTIFIED WINE ...

common guys, we are number 5/6/7 in world wealth [position keeps changing], we are big players in the world.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-14/Oil-prices-extend-losses-ahead-of-Fed-meeting-18oo9UgGa7S/index.html

brent down a couple of %. Also to factor in is fed interest rate on Wednesday. If the expected rise s only 0.25 then good, but if they do 0.5 then could be a damper.

The mood music is sounding good! Is it a ruse though, buy time to sort out the supply line?

https://inews.co.uk/news/tui-airways-face-masks-rule-flights-england-northern-ireland-1511924?ico=related_stories

I'm going to fly TUI from now on. Shuck the rest of 'em.

So, the game here will be to estimate the peak sp on possible end to war due to this kind of mood music. Sell, wait for the talks to fall apart/stumble/ceasefire breach, buy bac in on the crash and then look for market rise when oil futures thinks there will be period of stable prices. Then there will be some violent swing as significant issues arise. Still some high volatility to tard against.

https://www.farsnews.ir/en/news/14001222000773/Trkish-FM-Says-Pin-Tld-Erdgan-He

I think n the greater scheme of things, Putin's voice is heard less and less. It won't surprise me to see him relegated to a puppet under instruction from China. I extrapolate that the bio weapon business at the UN has hugely backfired and rather than setting out grounds for a false flag attack he has played his hand too much in advance. I'm sure China wanted to see a swift end under conventional fire with less collateral damage, but instead is faced with a significant escalation.

https://www.farsnews.ir/en/news/14001222000773/Trkish-FM-Says-Pin-Tld-Erdgan-He

Who was out over the weekend???