Member Info for Biffadog

Should read "If there is NO revenue...."

wellwell,

You make some interesting statements.

For example,

"In future we know:
FOIL is going to happen.
The EPS is going to be a success.
GWA is going to find oil (77% cos)"

We don't "know" any of this for certain therefore there is upside as wells downside depending on the result of each event.

FOIL provides revenue so I really can't see that not having an upwards effect. If there is revenue (oil flow) we are done for anyway.

Updates on the EPS flow rates will also be very likely to shift the SP upwards as this proves up the EPS.

In the past successful drills have had a significant impact on the SP.

I appreciate that the hook up is not such a big deal but to say it hasn't helped the SP over the last few days is utter nonsense. It has risen from 13% from 45p to 51p (as it stands) in anticipation and finally confirmation of the hook up being successful. This in no way ties into the movement in the price of oil over that time period.

Anyway, have it your way but it's so bloody obvious when you boys are trading this and no longer holding a long position. All of a sudden it's doom and gloom and no hope for any rise in the SP.

I think you have got it wrong.

GLA.

wellwell,

I'm not sure that your theory on tracking oil holds water as there are too may SP catalysts on the near term horizon.

FOIL in 3 -6 weeks and the first GWA drill (90% COS) in the next 2-3 weeks.

Yes, some very short term traders will have sold this morning but at 50p/51p it's still a good entry/top up price given the buoy is now connected to the FPSO. It will be interesting to see how it progresses once any sells have been cleared.

I guess time will tell.

GLA.

Should read....

An eminently sensible and logical post....

GLA.

RFTS,

Am imminently sensible and logical post in a sea of hysteria.

GLA.

Co-ordinates have not changed regardless of what the status says, so still directly on the buoy.

No failure RNS has been issued, so one can only assume they are completing the operation.

GLA.

60.179 / -3.870

The AM is in the same position she has been in for the last god knows how many hours.

Still directly on the buoy.

If there had been a major problem then we would have got an RNS.

They need to do a rotation test before issuing this and I'm not sure that has been done. I did check in during the night to keep an eye out and din't see this happen.

GLA.

Genghis is not a spiv. Never heard such nonsense !

On a separate note, OPEC have just cancelled the April meeting, so no need for them to make any formal decisions on reversing cuts in output until late June and the US are looking to reduce Iran's exports down to 1M barrels from May onwards.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-sanctions-iran-oil-exclusive/exclusive-u-s-aims-to-cut-iran-oil-exports-to-under-1-million-bpd-from-may-sources-idUSKCN1QU35V

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-falih/saudis-falih-opec-may-cancel-april-meet-but-hold-steady-on-oil-output-idUSKCN1QZ0KN

GLA.

I think you guys are being too pessimistic with your SP predictions should the AM not hook up on Monday or Tuesday because of the weather.

When the AM turned back because of the change in weather conditions last time, the SP only dropped back to 44p, so I think it is very unlikely to go below that level given the prevailing upward trend.

Hopefully, tomorrow will see it climb to nearer 50p, so it will have a higher point to drop back from anyway, compared to the 47p it hit before the AM turned back on the 1st March. This only resulted in a drop back to 43.7p (for one day only) before resuming the slow climb higher.

Personally, I think 45p is where it is at.

Also, there was a lot of support at 43.5p, people might also consider that we are now entering a much better time of year for getting that all important weather window and the GWA drilling campaign looks like it's close to starting.

If there is another issue with the rope or similar, then I agree, 40p is on the cards.

Hopefully, we will looking at a "successful hook up" RNS on Tuesday morning and none of this will be relevant.

GLA.

Don't know why but I thought I would quickly check the AM status on MT before bed, not for one moment expecting it to have moved from anchorage and low and behold, off we go again. Nice one. Great start to the weekend. Let's hope for a successful hook up this time and we're off to the races. So many potential SP catalysts this year and even oil is now looking like heading towards a small deficit for H2 2019.

GLA.

GSA reduced their short position again on the 13th March.

Not by much mind but it would seem they are buyers again at the 22p level.

Last time it dropped to 22p (27th Feb) they bought about 400k shares.

Of course, once it drops below 0.5% the short will become invisible to most but at least it is finally reducing after a year without moving.

I'm not reading too much into this but whichever way you cut it, it cannot be seen as a bad thing.

http://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B0FVQX23/

GLA.

Monday/Tuesday WW still looks fine to me. Under 2m swell and waves and calm wind conditions.

Realistically, AM would need to set sail by Saturday to catch the 24 hour slot.

http://marine.meteoconsult.co.uk/marine-weather-forecast/marine-coastline/british-isles/weather-forecast-coastal%20areas-west-shetland-14938-4.php

GLA.

The only WW on the horizon at the moment is Monday/Tuesday and as it stands it's looking good.

Hopefully the AM will set sail for Lancaster on Saturday or Sunday.

There is no WW from the 22nd onwards. In fact, it's looking pretty rough.

Hook up is not guaranteed for next week.

I know you boys like to ramp it up a bit but please don't post stuff that is patently not true.

GLA.

Hi SIPP,

You could well be right.

As I said, nobody on here knows the exact parameters required for the AM to get the green light to sail.

I think for a really decent 24 hour calm period they would certainly have a go but if that 24 hour period is more questionable they might chose not to go this time. Who knows ?

Just have to watch the AM on MT I guess and wait for "underway" to show on status.

GLA.

Hi Cebo,

Thought I'd add my sixpence worth as you bought me into the conversation.

I think 4-6 weeks is a reasonable estimate for FOIL after hook up. Catcher took 10 weeks but that was way more complex and with a brand new FPSO. I know 20-22 days was mentioned in a recent Energy Voice article but I'm not sure how accurate that was.

As it stands today, it does look like a reasonable 24 hour WW is opening up for Monday but whether or not BW think it is worth a shot is another matter. My feeling is that they will now wait for a larger window of confirmed calm before setting sail again but the reality is that nobody on here knows either way.

GLA.

IJWT,

I don't have a party message nor am I part of a larger group on here.

I just post my own thoughts and they don't revolve around predicting big (or any) rises in the SP, hyping up HUR's assets or such like. It's not my bag.

I don't write ramping type posts and I don't condone those that do. They are just as bad as the deramping brigade.

What I hold issue with is those that post purely to suit their own short term agenda and because I have some insight into your trading habits, I know that this applies to you.

I know you were looking to get back in and probably missed the sharp rise to 47p with your funds tied up in ECO.

Luckily for you the AM turned back and are now looking for your buy in before she sets sail unexpectedly again.

At best you sound smug but at worst it makes you a manipulative type of poster. I'm sure your claims don't have much (if any) impact but it still irks me and plenty of others I'm sure.

I'm not censoring your messages either, I'm purely responding to them as I see fit.

It's just not cricket and having met you I'm surprised at your behaviour.

GLA.

IJWT,

I can only assume you are still out of HUR.

Pushing ECO and talking down HUR in the short term with your "famous last words" and "some have made 50% plus in less than 4 weeks" etc

There are no rules against this but it does show you up as a certain type of individual.

On this occasion I will refrain from some choice words.

GLA.

Genghis and aduk,

The schedule for the LLIs easily allows for the Lincoln drill to be completed, the results analysed and an order put in during Q2 if appropriate.

I very much doubt any LLIs will have been ordered in Q1 and the CA quote "Long lead items have been ordered so that in 2020 one of those wells will be tied back to the FPSO for production appraisal" is just some artistic licence from CA.

My understanding was that it was the Lincoln well that they will be connecting back to the AM anyway and not one of the two Warwick wells.

GLA.

Looks like GSA Capital might finally be closing out their short on RKH if recent activity is anything to go by.

Reduced short position by circa 410k shares on the 27th February, down from 0.69% to 0.60%.

As some of you boys on here like to say "just saying"

GLA.

Yippee...

GLA.