Member Info for Bens_sipp

Maxime Saada stated in an article in the FT that he thought it would be 3 years for the share price to settle. He also stated that he was surprised that the share price has gone this low. I think that we are still seeing significant outflows from French investors, but on the positive side the slower recovery may encourage these investors to exit sooner if they believe that the share price will be depressed for a longer period than expected. Currently all new investors are battling the outflow tide, but this will not last forever.

JPMorgan must had done some analysis on the Level 2 Order Book and realized that in the short term the outflows were greatly in excess of the buyers. Fair play to them for a correct call. I would be super happy when the short position is reduced or removed as this will indicate that these outflows will no longer impact the share price significantly.

Https://channel.royalcast.com/canalplusgroup/#!/canalplusgroup/20250304_1

A recording will be posted later on the canal group website.

The reason that canal+ did not agree to the UK takeover code and are hence not eligible for listing in the ftse 250 is that the Balloré family own 30% of the shares at time of listing and hence would be obliged to make a takeover bid equal or greater than its list price, which is obviously something that they would not like to do. They may reduce their holding and canal+ may then want to abide by the uk takeover code in the future so they can be included in the ftse 250.

I'm not too bothered about the short position as JP Morgan is a huge company and will have many short positions. I think we seriously need some communication about the direction of travel from the board when the 2024 results are released on 4th March. Hopefully we can then have more confidence in these shares. If investors don't get the confidence in the results then it will be a long time before these shares recover some of their losses.

Canal+ see themselves as an super agitator of other services on top of their own content. They are trying to move away from being a French centric company via their investments in multi choice and other international companies. Given this there primary language will be moving towards English and hence they want to list with competitors in a the same market. The UK listing is probably preferable to a US listing as smaller companies often do better in the UK, hence the UK listing.

On further reading I believe the article is in error as the canal+ group will not implement the "UK Takeover Code" and hence in ineligible for inclusion to the FTSE indices.

https://research.ftserussell.com/products/index-notices/home/getnotice/?id=2614124

I thought that canal+ could not be added to the ftse 250 as it is a French company, but it seems that it will be added on 4th of March. https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1066895/coca-cola-europacific-thg-and-canal-up-for-ftse-index-promotion-in-march-reshuffle-1066895.html

I can see there is still selling pressure on these shares from looking at the price / volume charts. I often see that there are allot of people to fulfill a buy, but not as many people to fulfill a sell. I've seen a common example where a purchase of 40k shares makes the price rise by 0.5p next to a sell of 3k shares that makes it drop by the same amount. Often there are not enough buyers to fulfill a sale of 40k shares.

This is a off market trade. There is not enough liquidity to get a price for such a large trade so they are negotiated privately and have no direct effect on the stock price.

Maybe this means that they know that a large stock holder will have to sell soon? ( See my opinion post earlier)

The share price has gone lower than I expected. Currently there are general outflows from investors / funds that no longer can hold these shares due to the new company not being part of the CAC 40 and outside of the EU. The price will not move much upwards until all these investors have sold up. Given that there are about 1 billion shares and an average volume of 8.2 million shares are traded daily then only about 264 million shares have been exchanged since the IPO. So this means that about 25% of the stock has been turned over. I would expect the price to settle when this figure has doubled or quadrupled. So my guess is in a time frame of 6 weeks to 6 months, we will start to see the true value in these shares.