Member Info for Bens_sipp

There has been some negative sentiment about the lack of directors holdings (specifically Launa). I think that people have forgotten the Employee Benefit trust which diluted the shares count by 5% on the 10th June. I'm just pointing out that the directors / employees (6 in total!) have a vested interest in the share price as they have 296Million shares (current value £1.8 million) between them when allocated. I started buying into HE1 on the same day coincidently. Initially I was disappointed in the dilution, but then it gave me some confidence that there is now a strong interest in maintaining the SP.

The message is do not look at the current director holdings as they do not represent the potential stakes that they have.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HE1/introduction-of-employee-benefit-trust-scheme-h0zpu8okowz1plf.html

Stocks are traded via the book on one side you have the sellers and on the other side you have the buyers. The book consists of all the trades that are unmatched. If I want to buy some shares then I will take the lowest value offer blocks until I have the matched the number of shares that you asked for, and vice versa for the a sale. Then those shares are then removed from the book. I think the book is mostly made up from people that want to buy or sell at a particular price (limit orders). Generally speaking most people just accept the offers of the book and do not use limit orders. I think a higher buys count just mean that more people are using the book matching for buys and using limit orders for sells. (or it could be the other way around!)

Each trade has a buyer and a seller!

"*** packet" = "back of an envelope"

Sorry about the formatting the rude word filter broke it. (and removed capital letters!)

tldr version: old share price targets should be multiplied by 0.75 (75%)

here is my "*** packet" calculation for my short term target for these shares.

given:

he1 had a market cap of £60m prior to the financing offer.

there has been no other negative rns since the financing rns.

there is about about 6 billion shares in he1 currently.

assuming:

there will be an additional 2 billion shares (11 * 185,185,185) that will be added when the financing is converted. the total shares will then be 8 billion.

the company should still have a market cap of £60m. (no positive or negative sentiment change overall)

conclusion:

the price targets that people had before the refinancing should be reduced by the dilution of the shares. i.e. the price target should now be multiplied by (6 billion / 8 billion) or 75%.

the last close price was 0.64p with a market cap of £39.24m then my expectation is that the company should have a share price of (£60m / £39.24m) * 0.64p * 75% = (60/39.24)*0.64*0.75 = 0.97 * 0.75 = 0.733p.

final thoughts:

i believe that the option to convert to shares will be taken within the next 10 days. if it not taken and the shares maintain a higher price then the dilution will be lower and vice-versa.

future financing for tanzania will have a massive effect on the sp. i don't know how much more will be needed before revenues will start from tanzania, but i understand that somewhere between £75m and £150m in total will be required eventually.

It was just a bozo with more cash spare and a reckless attitude. No conspiracy here

No discount on Monday. Shares price may reduce a bit if people want to sell the shares they got through the offer, but bot much IMHO

So given that 50% ish allocation I have increased my total holding by 40% and have moved from a break even share price of 0.732 to 0.677. Happy with that.

With AJBell I'm still waiting to see what my allocation is, currently I have all the cash for the request tied up in the offer, but that may change. Can people confirm their allocation as they get it (just as a percentage)? The only allocation I see from BuyMeAnother is 48.25%. I'm hoping for the same. I think I made the request at about 9:30 yesterday.

Also this means that HE1 may look to retail offers in the future and so people do not feel like they were diluted without the option to buy in.

With the offer closed hopefully those people that requested shares may have close to the allotment that they asked for?

I've taken the offer. If I get the allocation that I asked for then I will have an average purchase price of 0.65 (currently 0.73). Hopefully this will be low enough to take some profit later?!

It would be interesting if they release whether it was oversubscribed later in the week (or if they close the offer early). Although they are looking for a high take-up compared to market cap.

CrustyPete. Good clarity the additional funds must be converted to value.

As a final point where would this company be without the fundraising? It would be out of cash very fast and investors would loose allot more. Financing is expensive untill there is a stable income stream, that's just the way it is.

Three people equally own a toy car that is valued at £50 a new investor says he want to sellotape £10 to that car and have a one third share of the whole. What is the value of the toy car as a whole, £60 or less?

My point is that your shares may get diluted, and you are out of pocket, but the whole should be worth more now than it was before.

I know the share option has not been exercised yet, but the whole company should be worth £11M more than it was before. Currently the market cap is £42M, and it was £60M before the fundraising was announced. When these options are taken (if they will be), then the market cap should be £52M - £70M ? Other than the fundraising there are been no bad RNS that should change the share price. The only difference is sentiment from existing diluted shareholders.

On another note, if the retail £1M share offer is oversubscribed then HE1 will be more likely to look to retail offers in the future. At this point in time the retail share offer is just testing the water for future retail financing IMHO.

Market cap was at 60M recently now its at 38M so a loss of 22M. Discount offer is averaged over a period IIRC and nothing else has changed. People are just wondering when the dilutions will end. There is some headroom in its current valuation IMHO.

Some of my previous decisions about these shares have related to the calculated fair value. Recently this had been about 270p ish. Today according to simply wall street it is 1249p! Does anyone know why the massive change? My theory is that accounts allocated to the French VAT dispute that has recently been settled have caused a blip in the free cash flow that is distorting the forecast. Moreover what insight can be taken from a fair value calculation if it can be so volatile?

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/media/lse-can/canal--shares/valuation

There will be a share buy back of £18.7m, for employee benefits. This will add some positive pressure on the share price in the short term.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CAN/launch-of-share-buyback-programme-i1ykaoercpt8m22.html

I think the payment date is Jun 27, 2025. I'm not sure if there is any clearing delay on the broker side though. I don't get many dividends!

Just bought some shares yesterday. Did not do enough homework! I was thinking of selling, but I now think I will see what happens. If it works out then all is good, if not I will have learnt a lesson.

Fingers crossed, and for those sticking with these shares I'll see you on the other side. (maybe)

While Multichoice is waiting for the canal+ takeover it is like a rudderless ship. In the absence of direction they are bound to loose some subscribers.

Canal+ has an aggregation deal with Netflix in Africa that should increase subscribers, and or revenue per subscriber in the medium term.

https://www.financialfortunemedia.com/netflix-taps-canal-to-regain-ground-in-africas-streaming-wars/