Member Info for Bens_sipp

Currently looking a potential dilution of 70% so given a recent sp of 1p before CLNs then you could expect it to return0.7p it the MCap returns to where it was. Unfortunately until the CLNs are converted we will not know the dilution currently. I think that it will not be below 66% (0.2p conversion price), but I have been wrong before.

Email

total shares = (7,000,000,000 + (7,250,000 / cp ),

percentage = 100* 7,000,000,000 / total shares.

If all CLNs are converted this would be the result. (conversion price, total share count, dilution)

0.1p, 14.3b, 49%

0.15p, 11.8b, 59%

0.2p, 10.6b, 66%

0.25p, 9.9b, 71%

0.3p, 9.4b, 74%

(NB by dilution I mean that if you owned 100% of the company before the CLNs are converted then you would have the percentage shown afterwards)

Formatting!

Conversion price => MCap (£m)

0.1 => 58

0.2 => 43

0.3 => 38

0.33 => 37

This share price today has already factored in the conversions at really low values. If today all the CLNs were converted at 0.33p then for the same share price the MCap would be £37m. Even with really low conversion prices there is still headroom in the current share price, as we have recently had a MCap of £60m without the additional £11m funding.

Some more examples where the share price would be 0.40p

Conversion price MCap (£m)

0.1 58

0.2 43

0.3 38

0.33 37

I think better financing options will be available in the future. Given the following...

(ESP improves extraction rate. The required plant is designed and costed. Contracts are signed for distribution.)

Then this will improve options.

Additionally revenue from Colorado will keep the lights on, so no financing needed for day to day activities, and the retail offer was oversubscribed so that is an option also.

I think if the CLNs are converted today we would need a mcap of £89m. Last 1p sp before CLN started was about £60m

Blubay. Yes Liquidity. I am trying not to look at the current share price as it is quite painful. My calculations are to reassure myself in the light on the CLNs outstanding that there is still some upside to these shares. I think currently they are taking an unreasonable battering. I would buy more if I could.

I am using this formula to judge the share price currently. It is based on all the CLN conversions that are outstanding £7.25m being converted. The variables are the expected MCAP value of the company, and the conversion price per share.

current = Current shares issued as of last RNS for those in circulation on 3rd Sept

new = new shares from conversion of all outstanding CLNs

Share price = MCAP / (current + new)

current = roughly 7,000,000,000

new = (CLN value )/ (conversion price per share)

cp = conversion price per share,

CLN value = 7,250,000

new = 7,250,000 / cp

Share price = MCAP/ (7,000,000,000 + (7,250,000 / cp ))

Given MCAP £30M and a CLN conversion 0.003 GBX

Share price = 30,000,000/ (7,000,000,000 + (7,250,000 / 0.003 )) = £0.00318

In my opinion we may eventually expect something more like this: MCAP £60M and a CLN conversion £0.003

Share price = 60,000,000/ (7,000,000,000 + (7,250,000 / 0.003 )) = £0.00636

To get back to a 1p (highly unlikely) we would need something like this.

MCAP £100m, cp £0.0025 or MCAP £89M, cp £0.004

Glenmere.

I do not see you point. I think the share price is currently low assuming that all the CLNs will be converted. This is currently theoretical. If the conversions are taken then more shares will be issued. Market Cap equals "shares issued * share price". If the MCAP will remain the same after conversion of the CLNs then effectively you are saying that when they are added the share price will fall to maintain the MCAP. In this case something like 25%, hence the share price will be 0.54p * 0.75 = 0.4p when the shares are issued?. This share price would keep the MCAP at £35M.

These CLNs are going to be converted at some point. I think it is retail investors panicking that will make a self fulfilling prophecy of doom. When the share price goes down the CLNs become more valuable and dilute the exiting shareholders more. I am currently just focusing on the MCAP as this is the true indicator of the value of the company. Given it is about £35M and we will get diluted by approx. 25% then people should see the MCAP (currently £35M) as £35/0.75 = £47M. This MCAP is a long way below recent valuation of £60M and it does not take into account the additional £11M funds the HE1 has at its disposal.

If people stay calm and hold their shares then there should be an upside to this. Maybe we need all the CLNs to be converted before the share price settles.

Flio . Yes there is probably a big chunk of that in those numbers, but they may or may not have voting rights in the Nominee accounts.

28% Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management Ltd.

16.4% Aberdeen Group Plc

5.1% Barclays Bank PLC, Securities Investments

Https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/aim-he1/helium-one-global-shares/ownership

Top 3 shareholders have 49.5% currently. Who knows who the 3 CLN investors are? Maybe someone is positioning to have a substantial holding while there is no RNS, this may be an existing share holder, one of the new finance investors, or someone else. I would not be surprised if we see a change to the top 4 shareholders very soon. IIRC you have to declare if you have a 5% interest in a company, other shareholders can stay anonyms.

I wonder if these shares are bought for influence, possibly merge and acquisition positioning? Or maybe they know something we don't? Anyway it nice just to see a normal spread on these shares for once.

Any helium 3 isotopes in Tanzania? I hear its worth $18.7M per kg! Just dreaming...

https://www.goldhydrogen.com.au/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024.10.30-ASX-Announcement-Helium-3-Confirmed-at-Ramsay-Project.pdf

I said I was reckless Blubay!

Pub crawl I'm in a very similar boat.

I have over 50% of portfolio in these shares. I currently have a low break even of 0.66p, but it feels like watching a car crash. I've been reckless this year, I started with a massive investment in Canal+ which paid off, and £10k probably lost in an AIM stock that is currently delisted. Trying to stay cool, but at some point I need to de-risk. Good luck everyone!

Why would you buy shares when you have a slice of 296million shares that will be allocated between the 6 employees sometime. See my earlier post. It would be nice if they bought their some outside of this though.