RE: Flying this morning5 Oct 2020 12:27
@muck:
- Yes, I thought I'd share it with them as I was going around the CIGA website this am and so thought would be useful to them. A few months ago I posited that we may see UK-RTC manufacturers sent our way. A stated objective of the CONDOR workflow is to link manufacturers with test suppliers and so I wondered if we may see capacity diverted our way: that has now happened with both BBI Solutions and Abingdon, ODX has been linked in local press as 'in discussions' with us, which would leave CIGA as the last consortium member with no relationship to us.
- I think it is indeed possible that Gov orders for the antibody tests are not forthcoming; I think the scientific understanding of the pandemic has evolved considerably since the AbC test was commissioned around 8-9 months ago and I question how useful population level Ab testing now is. Estimated infection rates are now known from local sampling and other data sets and additionally, it's known antibodies may not be detectable after around 6 months - which would render widespread Ab testing to assess the first wave largely ineffectual at this point. That the Ab test is now available commercially would suggest the government is no longer holding all the capacity in reserve (if it was before, mind).
- The other reason I think UK-RTC capacity may come our way is that it clearly isn't easy to produce a saliva-based LTF; hence we are seeing the competition folding. For all the talk of 'delay' with Avacta, it's worth considering that Omega had the 'gold standard' Antibody test for months and barely sold any, while Genedrive have a very high-performance PCR test since June (?) and have only just received approvals for one country, with no stated sales. My point here is that complex science clearly takes time: if Avacta manage to produce a 'gold standard' LFT, would it not make more sense for manufacturers to license the tech, rather than embark on a multi-month process of product development, with no guarantee of success?
- Finally, having spoken to some mates in the press, I am now 100% confident theres an NDA in place - and we already know there are "detailed" discussions underway with the gov. Therefore I think seeing further tie-ups with UK-RTC partners is highly likely IMHO.
All conjecture and speculation, but it seems plausible to me at least...
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