Member Info for benbenbenben

'we will introduce regulars mass testing with the new lateral flow tests we have previously said we will introduce'...!

Unlike the S*n, which is a bastion of quality journalism and accurate reporting, or the Daily Mail, which list of scare stories about 'things that give you cancer' is now so long it includes... newspapers?

@Bubba I speak to my mate most days and know they are speaking to the management of several companies, including Avacta, on a regular basis.

The issue is that Al won't give any comment off which a story could hang, owing to the market sensitivity of it all - so it seems the press are in the dark as much as we are. I imagine we will see coverage, but only after either the Co or Gov release more information.

Speech is the same as on Telly; but interesting to hear questions after I guess - he's still drumming on testing so someone will raise the Guardian article I imagine

Not strictly true Steven - Parliamentary Privilege means normal rules on disclosure don't apply; whether he'll say anything of interest though is another matter...

Three months since tech transfer started on an "accelerated" timescale last week - BBI suggest 3-4 months is standard and the pressure to deliver here is clearly phenomenal.

I would suggest it is reasonable to think by this stage Avacta and the Gov. have sight of a likely completion date - every chance they are speaking about us tonight IMHO

Has anyone got a link showing that it's Innova?

To anyone complaining the company are taking too long to perfect the product:

The 65% drop in the SONA share price is why I am much happier to wait patiently as they meticulously follow the process, than to have them rush it and wipe out the value of my holding.

Three months since tech transfer started today, not long now...

It depends where the mutation is; if it has radically altered the binding surface of the spike protein then could potentially be an issue (though it's previously been said by the Co. that the existing set of Affimers can detect mutations); but if it's anywhere else in the virus then it shouldn't make a difference - the article isn't clear where the mutation is located; one to look up in PLOS I guess...

Can you share a link?

'How long does Cytiva typically envisage a tech transfer taking for an LFT, and with regard's to Avacta's LFT, are they aware of any reason relating to Cytiva's work on the product which has given rise to a delay?'

Thanks!

1m also showing as a buy on IG; hasn't printed on the London Stock Exchange trade list though

"Covid tests with results within an hour are being piloted in universities - which could help students in England get home for Christmas.
[...]
The 'lateral flow tests' now being piloted are intended to find out whether someone has "high enough levels of Covid-19 in their body to make them infectious to others", says a statement from Durham University.
[...]
The DHSC says the testing pilots are "building the foundations for a mass testing programme" which could also help reduce the number of school pupils having to be sent home in Covid outbreaks."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54697113?at_custom2=twitter&at_custom4=8996FBD0-1845-11EB-9649-77DF39982C1E&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_campaign=64&at_medium=custom7&at_custom3=%40BBCNews

"Covid tests with results within an hour are being piloted in universities - which could help students in England get home for Christmas.

[...]

The 'lateral flow tests' now being piloted are intended to find out whether someone has "high enough levels of Covid-19 in their body to make them infectious to others", says a statement from Durham University.

[...]

The DHSC says the testing pilots are "building the foundations for a mass testing programme" which could also help reduce the number of school pupils having to be sent home in Covid outbreaks."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54697113?at_custom2=twitter&at_custom4=8996FBD0-1845-11EB-9649-77DF39982C1E&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_campaign=64&at_medium=custom7&at_custom3=%40BBCNews

...Avacta's opportunity here is so vast: it's one of the few technologies short of a successful and highly-subscribed vaccine which can restart global economies.

For reference, the Spanish flu took over a decade to dissipate...

GLA

Travel_Light - I believe AS was '**aiming** for end of summer' early on in the process, which is significantly different from stating a '**certainty**of end of summer'; which at no point has been said.

Clearly, it was a mistake to state such a marked timeframe, because (unsurprisingly), everyone is holding the company to it - and assuming the worst if it slips.

There have indeed been timelines put together by others on this board, such as Ophidian (RIP). Ophidian professes to have worked extensively in pharmaceuticals, and for me, either possesses god-tier bullsh*tting skills, or, as I suspect to be the case, has indeed worked extensively in pharmaceuticals.

So are his timelines dead on? No, of course not. But are they a logical outline of the expected workflow one would undertake to bring an LFT to market? Yes, I personally think they are valuable as such a resource, especially if taken in good faith as an attempt to outline the process Avacta are presently navigating.

From my personal experience - which I would describe as 'the same, but different' - I work as a junior architect who designs and builds buildings:

To do this, I first do a lot of research (1), outline the clients conceptual requirements (2), obtain my first regulatory sign-off (planning permission) (3), undertake detailed design in conjunction with specialists (engineers, etc) (4), tender it to a contractor (5), build it - with all the headaches that entails... (6), obtain final regulatory sign-off (building control) (7).

To apply this analogy to Avacta:

1) Research Affimer's as a diagnostic tool, especially in LFTs (think: companies work on ZIKA)
2) Avacta's conceptual design of an LFT for COVID
3) Liverpool STM sign-off on sens/spec requirements (see RNS)
4) Cytiva's involvement
5) BBI/Abingdon
6) Tech transfer (now)
7) CONDOR

You can see from this process that invariably, when many different parties are involved, timescales are liable to slide for reasons beyond your control. When architects build buildings wrong, you end up with Grenfell Tower. When diagnostic companies get tests for a deadly virus wrong, then...

So in my view, I expect some slippage and am not overly concerned by the present (reasonable, I feel) loss of time, which has been acknowledge by the - IMHO very capable - board of directors.

COVID is an incredibly contagious virus which will - sadly - haunt the global population of over 7 billion souls for years to come, until it has either infected and killed millions or been contained by vaccines and other measures; so yes, I sadly do expect the market in 3 months to be crying out for an Avacta solution.

Indeed, the number 1 problem for global capitalism today is that the entire labour force cannot go to work for fear of spreading the infection and so productivity - and GDP - fall through the floor. Spending any amount of money on any solution to change that is thus cheaper than the alternative: it's why Avacta's o

Same Journalist yes: I said that they had spoken to him and that I thought something would likely follow - and it will, as they are following the story closely - but AS isn't able to give any meaningful comment on anything to do with the LFT; which is why I am so sure there is an NDA in place, as is the stated protocol for moonshot.

My posting history is visible for all to see, so you can draw your own conclusions as to whether I am bullsh*tting you or not.

I've started trying to post on this board more as a long time reader and negligible contributor, in the hope that other novice investors - like me - can try and draw some useful information/discussion from it, and moreover, as an attempt to try and improve the culture on this board: which is driving away informed posters to the detriment of anyone who actually desires reliable information.

So take my post or leave it; it doesn't bother me and its up to you. But that's my honest opinion, which is more than can be said for many of the posts on here this evening.

Novacyt - First mover advantage with PCR; has continued to innovate; lots of contracts, lots of money; well done them.

Omega Diagnostics - 'Gold standard' antibody test: only received approvals last month; only confirmed first order last week

Mologic LFT - No clear timelines as not obligated to release, however I understand (from a well informed journalist) management to be "frustrated" at lack of government interest, and I hear (from this board) tech transfer scheduled for December (of relevance here as ODX are a manufacturing partner (unless, OFC, they jump over to us...))

Genedrive - Best in class PCR with sens/spec confirmed in early summer; approvals only for South Africa (and I think India); still no confirmed sales; now working on a point-of-care test for Q1/Q2 2021; clearly close to sales, but haven't made any yet with a good product.

Virolens - 15 second test revealed as likely hoax

Avacta - 'New gold standard' BAMS assay now on sale for research use, with clinical validation imminent/overdue; first-in-class assay for the BAMS platform. LFT likely to be 'first & best-in-class' for saliva based, home use test; tech transfer ongoing (and likely near completion) with a missed target of "end of summer" (September, or last month...); competition in the LFT space is receding owing to technical challenges.

My point here is that while the clear slippage on Avacta's timelines are frustrating, when we consider the progress of other diagnostics companies on AIM who are also developing novel COVID tests, they have also taken longer than expected to make headway and aren't exactly storming ahead.

The only exception is Novacyt, who are producing a PCR test - in many ways the simplest COVID test to design. Avacta is producing two completely different types of assay for two completely different platforms, on which no other company is as advanced with a viable competitor using the same attributes (saliva, LFT's, home-use, BAMS-based, etc).

The company has stated we will see tech transfer and validation complete in Q4: we can infer from the government's increasing bullishness on mass testing (of which it is beyond apparent Avacta are key too) that they are aware of progress in this space; we know from previous timescales that the end of summer was considered feasible, and we are just shy of two months over that.

Slippage is to be expected; but when the pace of progress is benchmarked against other AIM companies, I can see no real indications we are taking any longer than anyone else has given the complexity of the problem being tackled here - and certainly no cause to suspect a significant technical obstacle.

In the words of my medical researcher friend: "to get anything done properly takes a ****ing long time".

Today Captain Al sold 3.5% of his holding to buy a house - and fair play, on his watch the share price has done 1000% this year.

He also kept the other 96.5% of his holding...

IMHO, we are very clos

Let's see what Bozzer has to say...

The amount of one-hit-wonders suddenly on this board trying to terrify people into selling says it all really:

1) CEO's cant sell shares ahead of bad news unknown to the market because it's **very illegal**.

Do we really believe, given the caliber of the company board (look up their histories on the website), that this is insider trading; that having spent 12 years building this company, Alistair would destroy his credibility - and that of the company - for the sake of £400k?

2) He has sold slightly over 3% of his equity and retains options for over 5,000,000 shares, awarded to him as part of his salary to incentivize performance - his interests are still very much aligned with long-term holders.

RNS's like that predictably cause a drop; the price was also at the day high when it dropped. Cue day traders pulling out profits and a drop in price, then exaggerated by PI's panic selling - no doubt encouraged by the drivel suddenly appearing all over this board.

Either you think the CEO is a crook - abetted by a very well respected board of directors with background in Tier 1 pharmaceutical companies - or, like me, you think the man just bought a house.

Chill out!