Member Info for BellNippleBear

who know but it is the w-end so here is my best ( probably wrong ) guess - we will see 50p again for a short while Monday or Tuesday by will end the week higher than the 54.3p that we are sat at the noo.

pijoe - there is real need to post your reason yet again mate , a lot of peeps will percieve that this is you justifying reasons why you missed the latest rises in the SP ( confirmation bias that your trading in this share was correct and justified ) .
- you will also find that a lot of peeps will question why you never post on the boards of those shares that you have made a lot of money on ( pmg , rkh and others ) but continually post here when not invested .
i say that you tell them all where to shove it . keep posting here and not on shares that you actually hold , keep highlighting the risk here and reasons to be cautious ( i always like the balanced view ) - good luck and hope you get to a situation here where the risk allows you to buy back in and the SP hasnt gone to high to justify buying back in .
i totally respect your comments , input and judgement here and on the other shares although I would appreciate if you shared your views here on other shares before they rise , rather than in retrospect to allow others to enjoy the same phenominal gains as yourself .

GLATIC

delayed buy from earlier would be my opinion , judging on bid/ask at the time and sp movement thereafter - posssibly an order that was filled by the mms .
a good day and although in my last post I said that I would sell at 90p and take a cheeky 25% profit, well I never and am still holding those bad boys , still trying to puzzle out if there is any substance , leak , IIs topping up or buying in . Hard to call so lets see what Monday brings .

peeps , have a splendid weekend with hopefully more of the same next week . lol

I think that if we look on the internet we can always find predictions on future POO from $30 dollars to $300 pb . I think , with all due respect , that finding an article that backs up a predictions doesnt mean that the prediction was correct .
and as was mentioned a couple of days ago , there was peeps on here that I respect that were saying that the SP would not break the 50p in the future and milestones would not effect the SP and then we see the rise this week .
a nice lazy weekend for me I think , few beers and feeling smug about the SP here and across at Farn ( rise of 40% today) which really was a bit of a bet to keep the stress level up .

hoping that appointing the big boys is in preperation , i do not want any early takeover to happen yet , unless it is a few $dollars per share - i would however take 1 BP share for every 2 hurricane shares tomorrow - ( as most honest PIs would imo ) . but 1 for 1, this time next year .

under promise and over deliver as always once the fpso leaves dubai then that will give us a handle on if first oil is possible this year - 1 week sea trials , 6 - 7 weeks voyage ( including frare stack attaching ) , a few days to connect the buoy , 4-6 finish commisioning , line walks et cetera .then first oil . IMO

I would expect an RNS tomorrow morning , as rt said it is rns worthy so as soon as the PBLJ leaves tthe 500 , then i think it is off hire to hurricane , which happened this afternoon .
not sure how the sp will react to the news , hoping that it consolidates in the 50 - 60p range now before we see the bouy connected then a tick up again when the vessel sails or gets towed from the uae
( again for the record - i do not know if it will sail or be towed , but 5000 of adoubles shares going to a good charity gives me a warm fuzzy feeling inside ) .

thanks wessek , adouble - possibly the peson entering the field name into the AIS has just regained the use of his hands after a few year . - that would also explain the vessel going round in circles last week .

i cant remember who it was that kept going on about confirmitory bias or what used to be calle myself-bias , possibly NigWit , but it was the subject of debate on here a lot last year .

this also works in reverse when investors miss a rise or miss the chance to add , or miss the investment chance altogether - and they try to justify their hypothesis to themself and others sometimes by constantly exagerating the risks or giving other resons why they " missed the boat " - this is human nature and it may not be conchious deramping .
possibly in play with peeps on here and not just the ones that have admitted missing the latest rise.

be aware of myself-bias when invested or reverse myself-bias when you "miss the boat" or are not as invested as you planned when the rise came .

it is also nice to see this above the 50p marker that some peeps said would not happen before after first oil .

PBLJ currently trravelling at 6 knots , but is she finshed with hurricane or not ?, are we using her for other sub sea work and has she indeed finished the wells . I await the rns to be certain .

one of the lead vessels saying Fingallan Field - never heard of it , any ideas ?

Pijoe , that is correct , wellwell apology accepted ( joking ) . it is the chevron assetts that may go to the Jersey Oil and Gas and Sqz type players , particulary with the coming change to the rules on decomissioning costs and the tax breaks being able to be passed on to the buyers, changes that come in to play later this year .

thanks miss dosh , it may also be worth keeping an eye on the smaller players that are currently seeking to buy , Sqz and Jog for example have the funds and have stated that they will make acquisitions in the UK sector if the deal is right .

Although not possible - t would love to have a look at the defence document , although the company just need to make it known that they think that RF may realistically end up as 40% , they need to tell us how deep they think Lincoln and W potentially could be and then put out a best case recoverable oil figures based on those 2 pieces of info . which could more than treble the cprs conservative figures . Then line up an interview next week with malcy to then talk about the real water cut on the wells and finish the interview saying that the buoy is on its way , the sub sea is on ahead of schedule , the fpso will start sea trials soon and will be on halifax by september with first oil november. - then ask how many shareholders want to sell out for less than a few quid per share .
but I agree with biffa , this is just a red kipper and side show , imo

we also do not know if kerogen already own some of the bonds , or do we ?

both bp and statoil will be very interested in all the IP for modeling FB when it is proven to work , in fact all the big boys will want it , just as much as they will want hurricanes potential reserves .

adouble , i will take another 500 shares at your now revised odds of 25 to 1 - thank you very much .

and just for the record , i do know not if it will sail or be towed , or even carried by mermaids , but love the odds .

jim , dave , i do not know if they are going to sail or tow but would not rule either of them out , in fact i think it is 5050 which is why when adouble offered 10/1 I though it was worth a punt and a good charity will be the winner either way as I am sure adoubley will agree .
dave , i get you point about cost of the tugs and tow master , tow crew (and a ships captain ) for a tow . but they will also need extra people for the sail because the OIM will not have a clue and the final marine team that will be looking after the marine side when on location will not be the same guys that they will need to sail the thing across .
i am also guesiing that there is also a lot more systems then just the thrusters that need to be fully working tested and certified before she sails , sytems that will probably never be used again ( i suspect that after 10 years wos she will be scrapped ) .
Jim , the sea trials are not just to test the thruster or engines , it will involve a lot more than that starting with the inclibnation test before even moving , seawater deluge systems , watermaker (if it has one) lifeboats and anything else that cannot be tested in dock .
but like i state , i do not know if it will sail or be towed nor will i lose sleep either way , and 500 shares for a good charity is just fine by me .

jim , why would they not tow for sea trials ? . most purpose built fpsos now are unable to sail under there own steam , they have no bridge either as the ccr are mostly below deck and yet they still manage to conduct sea trials .

Ghengis , why does it make it less likely ?

ok , when the AM is west of shetlands she will only use her thrusters during offloading taker operations , possibly at times for Heli Ops , and sometimes to assist turning into the weather but not always .
When wos , the thrursters will or should be checked probably daily for oil levels , leaks and seaps etc and routine PPMS on filter changes etc . but after approx 10 years ( give or take 2 years ) they will need a major overhaul including changing the seals motor parts etc - this may include flooding the chanber to get to the seals ( that prevent sea water ingress and oil to the sea ). If they look after the thrusters then they may last the eps without any major work requiring , if not then then it is a major PIA when on location . so with that in mind will the company be really want to run them near max 24hours a day for about 35 days even before the eps begins .
I do not know either way but have a 500 shares to your (adouble's) 5000 shares that says that she will be towed back . or shall we say the cash value of the 500/5000 shares on the day of First Oil, payable the same day .

it matters not if it is towed or goes under her own steam - both option will average only 6-8 knots on a good day .

imo

all good and when the market realises that come november , with the sanctions take 2 mmbd of the table , and shale slows down , then the poo will hit $100 pb IMO . do not be fooled into thinking that the Saudi's will fill the gap - they will be using up there reserves to supply an exra 1 mmbd and that will be them flat out . They are humouring mr trump bcause they want and need a regime change in iran but apart from that they need a high oil price as much as Prem Oil do .
$100 by year end is my prediction .