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Putting everything into the pipeline is excellent news, raking in about 350K dollars per day as their share is also good numbers and significantly changes things with this stock .
I would support company expenditure in additional tankage which normally has a water draw off facility.
If we are supplying a refinery direct they should have de-salting and water draw off facilities as standard.
Gone now are a lot of going bankrupt worries and more likely to see a fair bit of company wealth while we await resumption of main export flows.
The fact that GKP are now getting customers for significant quantities of crude will be a shot across the bows for those hoping to squeeze extra monetary advantage by crude exports to Turkey. Things are most certainly looking up for the patient shareholders here , and I'm happy to beholding a strong position. Going to be a good end to this year.
Hi NewK,
Also if there was still any serious contractual doubt looming over the companies they would not be allowed to fill. Suspect this is just grumbling or ways to score minor points and gain negotiation advantages, just smoke and mirrors. You don't put crude oil down a pipeline you don't intend to start up....
If we had a crude export pipeline that we believed in any way might fail under full load we would "pig the line with fresh water" then pressure test it with that. That way if you do get a leak its much easier to repair, and even easier to clean up any water leakage rather than crude oil everywhere.
This is a start up , end of. Now where's that dry powder . Mr. Market clearly agrees.
Just need to take an overview of the pipeline situation.
Testing.....You never test any pipeline with air....think of a pressurised gun, same thing with any vessel ..you always use water or another liquid . Know of workers who have been killed when a pipe held pressurised N2 and suddenly released. Might well use a light flushing oil/fluxant to get things moving.
Lets take a step back here....we know all parties want to get the crude moving again to Turkey, but its all about the money, however as crude prices rise the ability to compromise more also increases. Lets not forget, that talks have still been going on between all parties, just not shouted about.
Wasn't long ago that Iraq asked Turkey to resume crude imports as a sign of "good faith", while Turkey also increased water flows to Iraq in a similar vein.
So "testing actual flows", nicely meets that request, just dressed up a bit different. Also will actually make it much easier right now to get the crude moving while daily temps are high than waiting till a future time when it might not move at all.
Its a clear sign of co-operation and things should move soon.
I don't believe the current halt has anything to do with pipeline damage. However if agreement gets reached its an ideal 2 way face saving excuse.
Of course one of the underlying questions which we wont get answered is, have those who know (or contacts of such) if talks on opening pipeline which might be bearing promise have indirectly buying this stock.
In a corrupt region, I doubt if anyone on here would be surprised as such and its certainly beyond any company to control as we've seen quite a bit of similar action in the past.
So might well be time to use that stored powder, and certainly not a time to sell for a small gain.
Bigger things are afoot it seems.
We can all agree that GKP is treading water currently, certainly holding its own with the Turkish export route currently unavailable.
Hopefully now we do see some accord between Erbil and Baghdad, it must be time to explore the overland route to the gulf. Part of it has a damaged pipeline, might be a good time while we are in limbo to start putting it back into full working order. Would certainly spur on Turkey to reach agreement on exports.
Clearly pressure to complete a pipeline deal growing on all sides now. Expect the pressure coming from Uncle Sam was requested by Kurdish officials who find themselves with no place to turn to.
As the Saudis and Russians reduce production crude oil prices are already responding ahead of the coming winter, so its also in western interests in several ways to see the pipeline reopened.
Iranian influence on Iraq may be a bit of a sticking point, but they are not the majority.
Will crude prices high and likely to climb further even with the pipeline re opening the prospects for GKP could quite easily go from stagnation to blooming with a single act.
Some great posts Kheldar, thanks for sharing...So GKP are keeping all the monies collected currently and putting it against debts owed.
More excellent news which certainly safeguards our company and is the most cost effective process.
Hi Rogthegamer,
They have come a long way already, just need to go a bit further and once everyone starts to see the benefits they will never look back. They are indeed fortunate to have such decent reserves of crude oil. Many countries in the world in the same positions of development would love just a tenth of what Iraq has. However they do know they have to sell the oil, so I dont think we will wait that long because all sides have made their positions clear, just need a bit of flexibility and it could be flowing by next week.
Hi Armasmaximillian,
I completely disagree with your comments that "the Western idea that Iraq has lost billions is ridiculous".
However this is from a factual western standpoint. Agree the oil is still in the ground so still has value, however we must agree that alternative energy is starting to make oil not so essential, and that with the huge reserves that Iraq has it will take many , many years to extract it all.
Take other successful Arab nations who are selling plenty of oil, but used it to massively improve the lives and living conditions of their populations, while investing a good chunk of that income to insure future prosperity for its people. To build top notch modern cities with all the associated transport, communication and medical requirements takes many years indeed, along with proper jobs not quango ones. Time is not on their side, they needed to start that process yesterday. I've stayed in many Arab cities and the facilities and service are indeed superb.
Now compare that right now with what you are saying ..The oil is in the ground, well they cant eat oil, oil in the ground is no good if you are unemployed , children are starving and require ongoing medical care and treatment.
Also no money to pay the rent, and suffering in torrid 50 degree heat. Indeed a nightmare that is transformable.
Clearly when you consider this your comments against my views I doubt you will still agree with what you published.
However to enjoy the full benefits of society, with housing, medical care jobs etc, you have to treat the oil companies right and give them due dollar as per contracts, never try to swindle them or water down agreements and pay 100% on time. This way other companies will look in and see how they are being treated and also want in invest in Iraq and Kurdistan.
Its staggering to believe that the idiots that run Erbil and Baghdad, have lost multiples of what would cost them to settle, while allowing large amounts of its population to become unemployed through their own inability to settle the oil export dispute.
Most of them have not earnt their positions, but been given it through bribery and family connections. They are not loosing money and still the first to be paid handsomely.
Stunning amount and percentage of the population "work for the government", so clearly do created useless jobs and which I expect is being paid for minimal contribution.
When it comes to bickering, extortion, barefaced bribery, breaking of agreements, and failing to pay dues and money owed these ministers are outstanding in performances.
Do they really wonder why what could be one of the richest nations on earth per capita is one of the poorest.
I expect many are making quite a few bob right now trucking our crude to Turkey. No one has said its not happening, just that the pipeline isn't open.
Got to bear in mind, it was reported a long time ago that Kurdistan would underwrite the complaints from Iraq to Turkey if it went pear shaped in the courts. It was one of the pre-conditions of allowing the crude to flow, and players like the Brazani made billions from it.
Chickens have come home to roost now. Little wonder that Kurdistan agreed so quickly with Baghdad about agreement on oil flows...they have been playing both sides, and also holding out on oil companies and getting paid for crude in advance....pocketing the proceeds. Everyone believed Turkey was the sticking point... now the cats out of the bag about previous promises made.
Both sides and the producers lose out every day of pipeline closure.
Makes sense that as soon as agreement made the pipeline will be opened.
That's a 20 minute task.
Co-ordinating a timely start up might take a day or two, however those plans should have already been completed and agreed in anticipation. Lets face it...the pipeline operators have had much more to do over the last few months.
When agreed it will be fast.
So now we have the Oil minister from Iraq travelling to Turkey to discuss ways to resolve the crude export problem and Erdogans trusted foreign minister renowned as a problem solver coming to Erbil and Baghdad also to try and resolve the same issue.
This isn't the biscuit munchers but those with real clout to get the issue resolved. Turkey has already demonstrated co-operation by opening the sluice gates with another 500mtrs per sec flow.
However remember the article stating it was "for a month". ...that might be extended.
so without actually saying so its a case of "we are sharing our resources, your turn".
Probably the best opportunity we've had for a long term settlement.
Clearly crude oil imports are high on the discussion list. We have already seen concessions given by Turkey and that is the release of much higher water flows from the dams to aid Iraqis. That will please those in Baghdad . Cannot be unnoticed the large amount of trucking that is starting from al of the stranded crude producers which has probably moved Turkey from its previous hardliner position.
Fines can be worked off, and I expect the water flows will be in exchange for stopping of further legal action against Turkey.
I'm sure some kind of "muslim brotherhood " crude discount will be arranged with Bagdad so we will then be pretty much set to go with the fanfare of fellow backslapping, biscuit munching with the obligatory and eyewatering "arrangers fees", and "introduction and finders fees" being delivered for doing almost nothing.
Hi Straycat, you write.
"The point is that this site is now being manipulated by paid posters. Probably without any investment in the future of GKP ".
It is suspicious why some are doing that. However if we look back in the history of this company, right to the TK days, it was clear that there were boiler room scams in operation then. I don't know whether we have the same scammers back again but clearly the motives are the same and its all about money, trying to run down stock by either persuading other investors not to buy or even better to sell up. I actually welcome negative views about this stock , as its a really corrupt location that we operate in. However I prefer factual points and not lies and clear manipulation.
The old saying of "oil will find its way to market", has never been truer.
We don't know if GKP are actually increasing the amount of crude oil being trucked away, however we do know that DNO are seeing increasing crude sales with instant payment so pretty sure GKP will be seeing similar.
Well the Iraqi people really know how to turn a profit, where fuel and labour costs are some of the cheapest in the world.
Can bet your btm dollar that many entrepreneurial drivers and tanker owners will be trucking long distances in order to make a decent up grade on crude sales, delivering to whoever is prepared to buy it.
More tankers moving, more local diesel required, so local refiners will also be upping local production as well, so even more tankers shifting crude oil.
Word soon gets around, and wont be long before its not just local drivers, but truckers from every local country like Jordan and Turkey turning up waving the credit card and wanting our crude.
Run the calcs...well worth the trip even with a few "gratuities", to grease the border guards for "fast track", pass through service.
Turkey best settle quick, or might find its better by private trucking..
Why send by pipeline if not being paid, swipe the plastic as the tanker fills is miles better for us, and the tanker operators and bosses.
Its proving co-operation between the two adjoined countries works, especially when one has an abundance of water while the other is struggling. 500m3 per sec is a real decent flow. Also demonstrates trust between the two countries moving forward, and quite honestly they have been at odds for a while.
Oil could easily be viewed the same way.
I sense the logjam could be breaking, and it seems the water is already flowing swiftly, Oil will be next.
I remember seeing the supposedly normal trucking costs to Turkey.. Where labour costs and fuel in some of the cheapest in the world remember thinking it would be a few hundred pounds... We were trucking \a decent amount of crude, but being charged an extortionate amount for the privilege.. Barzani family again behind the scam, and with this companies blessing.