Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I appreciate all the views on here, for me looking at the bigger picture and a stand out post was from space tomato.
I'm just going to repost it below.
So the pipeline is all ready and waiting, As per Baghdad rules normal crude payment is $6 per barrel, so they are in essence correct but also know themselves its ridiculously lowball. So Kurdistan officials will be drafting law to change the rules this week to enable payments for exported crude at a upgraded level...Oil companies hold the whip hand here and want "payment as per contracts", nothing less. Also agreement for future prompt payment and a mechanism for payment for crude already produced and sold.
Its quite achievable , and the fines being levelled, because the pipeline is not full and the huge lost revenue will surly concentrate the mind. That's the next step for us. Things are actually moving along quite nicely now.
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) negotiating delegation will return to Baghdad next week to meet with officials from the two Iraqi ministries of finance and oil," Hunar Jamal, spokesman for the ministry, told Rudaw.
"Next week's negotiations with the two ministries are to draft a joint bill to be submitted to parliament in order to amend the articles of the general budget law related to the method of determining the share of the Kurdistan Region and payment of oil companies."
(...)
د. "Another point that is likely to be amended is the clause related to the payment of financial entitlements of oil companies in the Kurdistan Region, which Baghdad has set the amount of six dollars for the production of one barrel of oil and a small amount," he said.
According to the 2023 budget law, the Iraqi Ministry of Finance must pay the financial entitlements of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) oil companies, but according to the criteria followed by the Iraqi Oil Ministry.
Very pleased with update, he correctly stated that production was 33k bopd at last announcement with plans to increase.
Bet he would love to have declared what it actually is now, however that's market sensitive news and must be RNS'd.
Good prudence from a CEO demonstrated. Expect an update soon.
I'm not into wild share numbers but one thing slowly at a time, however he indicated that discussions were taking place this week and clearly the oil producers sticking together have major clout. In the meantime we cover all costs are are increasing production all the time, so pressure is off the oilers.
Good to here we have no water breakthrough on the wells as we decrease pressure as flows gently increased.
Much more crude being sold for cash locally. Fully agree there, what we are actually seeing is a resumption of the export trucking operation .
Has the Iraqi local refiners suddenly started ramping up production and require more supplies on top of existing?, I'm very sceptical of this.
Well its all under the "local refiner's umbrella", and in truth the road tankers might start in the general direction. Bet only a small number actually arrive.
Who cares???? we are operating a "cash and carry" operation.
Look at the maths 24t at 7 barrels a ton is 168 barrels, buy at $30 sell at $80 cheaply and thats $8400 dollars profit per load. This is in a region where labour/driver costs are the cheapest in the world and fuel dirt cheap.
Quick turnaround to Turkey, 2 drivers and 3 days return.
Little wonder sales are rip roaring...and in fairness all that diesel req may cause the local tinpots to increase production a tad.
Very unlikely to see this demand dropping off, more like the opposite when we find whos doing the trucking...
I think we all know the answer there.
If the high level of shorts is correct at 4.9M, its going to give them a hell of a headache trying to close them once Mr. Market sniffs a wounded position, it could potentially become a bloodbath, as every trader in London buys stock knowing they will have to purchase such a huge amount of stock, which must force up the price further.
They are after a quiet opportunity to off load but with the current volatile climate and resulting rising crude prices the tide is already running against them, and strong possibility of turning into a torrent.
Another thing that makes me think after reading the Rudlaw articles is why Turkey would now publicly state that its "ready for crude oil".
Well privately I suspect its been ready for Crude oil for about 200 days while it held out on terms and conditions and a deal on the two legal issues.
Now it seems that's been sorted (which is not a small thing), it sees itself being continually blamed for the delays which sits well with those who are happy to see this drag on for ages while they have alternative objectives.
So they now produce the "ready for crude" statement. This will give those that privately don't want a settlement, but publicly are all "Iraqis working together" nowhere to hide.
Strongly suspect these are the very same people who spout nonsense like "contracts are illegal". Its all aimed at continued delay while two facedly having a different public image.
However we are much closer now to getting the crude to flow with contractual payments.
Believe Mr. Market is starting to think it as well, that's why generally our share price is rising.
Thanks for sharing Morbox,
Date on that was the 4th of this month so clearly someone has been sitting on their hands.
This is during a period when all the [parties are blaming each other for the holdup, I believe we can now clearly see who is the ringleader in this fiasco of stupidity and deliberately causing delays and thats the Iraqi government in Baghdad.
Latest excuses are the IOC's wanting payment as per contract and prompt payment at that.
So we've been waiting months and they didn't know about these potential snags and holdups which could have easily been resolved while we've been waiting. What rubbish, clowns in charge in Badhdad, if not clowns probably vindictive politicians bearing political grudges with other political alignments.
Bet they are currently being paid for their uselessness...and with plenty of backslapping, biscuit munching and brown envelopments for fees. ...lol..... rant over.
I'm glad we are seeing the IOC's really sticking up for themselves, just demonstrates what clowns these countries have in charge thinking they can get away with making exploration and development agreements with oil companies then trying to cheat them when its time for rewarding all their hard risk and effort.
Bet when Iraq was discussing exports with Turkey they never really considered it.
Just what they were going to trouser.
Full article below released today.
https://www.apikur.uk/publications/apikur-explains-200-days-since-the-halt-of-exports-through-the-iraq-tuerkiye-pipeline-7-billion-lost-export-revenue/
October 11, 2023
Key Points:
• October 11 is the 200th day of the halt of oil export deliveries through the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline (ITP)
• ITP closure has collectively cost the Government of Iraq, Kurdistan Regional Government, and APIKUR member companies a total of $7 billion in lost export revenues
• Iraq may be accruing almost $1 million liability each day since October 4 when Türkiye declared its intent to reopen the ITP for export of oil
APIKUR notes that today marks the 200th day of the halt of oil exports in the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline (ITP). During this period, the Iraqi government, the Kurdistan Regional Government, and International Oil Companies have collectively lost $7 billion in revenues. This equates to a loss of $35 million every day. In addition, the closure has significantly impacted the livelihoods of the Iraqi people and local communities that have relied on the economic impact of APIKUR member company investments for more than 15 years.
Furthermore, since the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources of Türkiye declared that the ITP is ready to resume operations as of October 4, the Iraqi Government may be obligated to deliver a minimum of 35 million tonnes of oil per annum through the ITP, according to MEES reporting. Failure to deliver this minimum throughput results in the Iraqi government incurring a tariff of approximately $300 million per year. These tariffs may now be accruing as of October 4.
These losses are avoidable and impact the global oil market, economic entitlements of the Kurdistan Regional Government, and the livelihoods of countless Iraqis and their families.
“As financial losses increase daily, APIKUR member companies encourage a swift solution for our contractual issues and a clear understanding between the Governments of Iraq and Kurdistan Region for our future payments,” said Myles B. Caggins III, APIKUR spokesman.
APIKUR members are open to engage with all parties to reach a commercial resolution that preserves their contractual rights and enhances the future investment climate of Iraq and the Kurdistan Region.
- Ends -
Video online shows her dancing at the open air party just a couple of hrs ago. She was a peace activist and had refused to join the Israel military. Total home goal I'm afraid and glad I didn't see the parade of her body because that's clear human rights violations and fully indictable. Very sad day for the middle East, and ruthlessly planned to try and continue violence, at a time when things were starting to look better. Limited effect for GKP, just that any Iraqi sales or crude via Turkey ending up in Israeli hands is likely to be prohibited. They were a customer previously.
Cor..... $35 per barrel to the oil companies, would you like that sir???? Little wonder that they would increase exports to 1M bopd.
Still just potential, but very promising.
https://www.rudaw.net/english/opinion/08102023
The Iraqi government has announced an allocation of only $6 per barrel for oil producers in the Region, a figure that has been met with significant resistance from IOCs. In an interview with Rudaw TV, the spokesperson for the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (Apikur), challenged a $6 compensation, revealing that foreign companies in the south receive much more than that amount, around $35. The oil companies in the Kurdistan Region demand a similar compensation from the Iraqi government.
Addressing these obstacles could lead to an increased pipeline capacity, potentially reaching one million barrels per day. This would attract substantial investment, driving further growth in the oil industry in the Kurdistan Region.
Yes i did also wonder about the Iraqi governments rule that 400k BOPD be controlled by SOMO.
Well thats fair enough to secure the 12% budget share, however pondering these figs for a while and thinking about expansion plans for the Kurdy oilers its possible that 400K will very soon be exceeded. Is this then Kurdish oil share.
Yes looks like it but pretty active buying when they offload a block, bet a few shorts traders are feeling a little hot under the collar right now. they've had some good runs but may have overplayed their hand this time. suspect we will rally hard into the close.
Yep, A cold one also beckons for me shortly, we know that unlike UK business is often completed at weekends in the far East and they take midweek breaks. Very good chance that the final touches will be completed over the weekend and we will be starting up come Monday morning with just such an announcement before trading commences.
This is because we do have ullage in tankage now due to local sales so can most certainly start to get everything moving again once payment assurances received.
You are 100% correct spacetomato,
So much so that I had a dig about in a couple of ISA's this morning and found some divis that have been produced from some blue chipped stock and bought a couple of k more of this stock this morning.
I expect those that are holding our company stock as shorts must be getting pretty worried right now , and a fair bet that they will be starting to close them soon or face the expensive consequences.
With the main parties Turkey and Iraq is effect aligned on restarting flows I believe we will see something official from our company within the next few sessions.
Lot can happen over the weekend and i certainly don't want to be caught out on the wrong side of a positive RNS when I have some dry powder left and want to maximise all opportunities.
Really dont believe now is any time to sell, regardless how much it rises today.
Hi Spacetomato...great name by the way.
Fully agree ref levels of corruption, and that the shareholders here could also come out of this very well indeed. Sounds like we have similar levels of investment.
Know we will have some expenses, but being robbed blind is another thing altogether.....Like security told to take the day off while a huge line of trucks helped themselves making a mess and no regards to safety, then disappeared into the sunset.
Guess the loading terminal.....Shaiken.
Wonder how long it will take till we hear the specifics of the export agreement.
Most importantly how it will effect our company and amount of income it will generate. In my book the more tight lipped they are the more shady the small details.
It could indeed be excellent news for the exporting oilers, however knowing how these twizzling, pocket lining, corrupt officials operate we best be sceptical until all the information received.
I know every investor on here is fully "eyes and ears wide open," and not naïve at all regarding the risk reward ratios.
That said, its still on the face of it excellent progress, and could well lead to re-establishing full production ASAP, along with the well deserved shareholder rewards.
Its a crying shame that the oil companies have to take this unwanted action. Also proof to the fragrant levels of corruption that currently exist that they've completed their side of the deal..IE explored for crude , drilled , and extracted it, and the thieving diplomats trouser the last crude payments and don't pay the oil companies . They then have the cheek to come back and say " start exporting again chaps".
They are the ones who need locking up for corruption.