Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Wonder how long it will take till we hear the specifics of the export agreement.
Most importantly how it will effect our company and amount of income it will generate. In my book the more tight lipped they are the more shady the small details.
It could indeed be excellent news for the exporting oilers, however knowing how these twizzling, pocket lining, corrupt officials operate we best be sceptical until all the information received.
I know every investor on here is fully "eyes and ears wide open," and not naïve at all regarding the risk reward ratios.
That said, its still on the face of it excellent progress, and could well lead to re-establishing full production ASAP, along with the well deserved shareholder rewards.
Its a crying shame that the oil companies have to take this unwanted action. Also proof to the fragrant levels of corruption that currently exist that they've completed their side of the deal..IE explored for crude , drilled , and extracted it, and the thieving diplomats trouser the last crude payments and don't pay the oil companies . They then have the cheek to come back and say " start exporting again chaps".
They are the ones who need locking up for corruption.
Doesn't have to be a massive divi, give a modest one now and post notice thats its going to be repeated all being well.
That way, faithful shareholders get rewarded now and the prospect of future divis will boost the shareprice making it a win/win and longer term hold.
Lots of traders, most of which know somebody in Iraq, Kurdistan or Turkey or mixed up with one of the oilers trying to anticipate the market .
Always a very high chance of the curved ball being tossed, which is happening right now with Turkey saying the pipeline is ready (ahhh but at what price), is little different from SOMO saying "we would like you to open the pipeline" (but expecting high prices and full control of all the crude).
Knowing this region with its blatant corruption, its good to see the oil companies sticking together. The politicians have paid themselves, in effect with money owed to the oilers so in effect stealing from them.
Bet they thought they could get away with fooling the oilers again and try to cheat them by changing contractual terms after they have taken all the risk , found and extracted the crude oil.
That would subsidise the brown envelopes further and get the crude flowing...and we'll give the oilers any last remaining scraps.
Well Oilers should be paid first, or don't expect more.
The most modern refinery's are constructed to handle very heavy crude as its normally purchased at a discount to brent.
However its very very marketable, and no one should be any doubt of that. Just look at this older article from March where new Chinese refinery's been build that can only run on heavy crude.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Price-Of-Heavy-Crude-Oil-Is-Climbing.html
Believe what the oil companies require is actually very easy, and could be completed in minutes.
Give then a guarantee that all contracts will be fully upheld, and that they will be getting prioritised future payments with a proportion of the owed money as well.
That would suffice...and I'm sure shareholders would also like to see it.
The oil companies want to know exactly where they stand.
This is really good news that the oil producers collectively are fed up with being cheated and not being paid for the crude oil discovered and funded by in the best part shareholders.
They are sticking together and saying, that although you may have agreed cosy deals and back handers where's all the money for the crude we have produced which has clearly been trousered.
This is the perfect time to do it, as Iraq needs the crude payments and the oil companies want the correct payments promptly as per original contracts, not a bit when the Kurdish or Iraqi government finds some spare change.
Pretty sure they will win this argument as its pretty clear cut.
However then by winning it will make it very difficult for someone in the future to try and reduce or with hold due contractual payments.
Fully support our company holding out on this.
Good post CCC,
Does demonstrate what we have been saying, Turkey now willing to be more "flexible" faced with Kurdish crude being sent to alternative sources at increasing rates.
Actually I believe having SOMO in charge of crude exports is responsible for this new "potential flexibility", which can only be movement on costs /fees and backhanders.
This is because they cannot hold SOMO to ransom like they did the Kurds extracting ludicrous costs and expenses. Now they know SOMO can divert Kurdy crude entirely if they wish it puts a whole new perspective on talks.
My game plan here is actually to hold and wait for at least first dividends, when that happens the price will also be north of here so the two go hand in hand.
If we look at the risk/ reward aspect from current position the odds are pretty good, but certainly not zero.
Fully agree Swell, another area where Turkey could aid Iraq is in the region of flare gas recovery and export.
We are flaring off our gas, clearly long term not sustainable. Europe is desperate for gas and Turkey is a main consumer.
Give them a good deal and they will come. Just need to demonstrate adherence to agreements and contracts past and present to rebuild shattered confidences.
At first weeks of the holdup we saw Iraq requesting opening of the crude export line, and Turkey not opening their side.
Now it seems Turkey wants to open its side and have asked Iraq to restart crude flow.
We aso know that talks and discussions have been taking place for a while now, with minor leaked reports that progress was being made.
During this hardball time GKP found other markets, firstly trucking its crude and the latest we heard piping it away.
Has Turkey suddenly realised that it may have overplayed its hand so has relented on concessions, now faced with the fact that the longer it goes on the less likely Iraq needs the Turkish export route.
Either way its much better news for Kurdish oilers as it seems there are multiple suitors for its crude.
Normally when that happens the price increases.
Or you exercise some stock in order to move them to a more efficient tax wrapper..
Best time to do it is when the stock price is low so able to get a lot more in.
Best done with stocks that might generate a handsome divi or growth in the near future.
Expect many on here done the same, I have.
Hi Gruntar,
Loosing the "angels share", is a really serious issue which oilers dont like talking about.
Even in the UK where pipelines serve major airports from major refineries via multi purpose buried pipelines I think many peeps would be stunned if they knew just how many "angels " have been discovered in just the last 18 months using illegal "hot tap " operations, and helping themselves by the tankerful . Even have crude labs set up so they only sip the correct grade like white diesel compared to jet. Many only getting caught when they get too greedy. Actually very easy indeed to do.
Clear risk of a major spill or fire with this kind of action.
So if we've had two full pipelines sat full of Iraqi crude stretching many hundreds of miles, might the same have happened in a very corrupt part of the world.. Thats more likely the need for pipeline inspections rather some earthquake after which they ran at full tilt for 6 weeks.
Also another reason for a careful start up.
If the line crossed a mountain range in between, unless a vent valve was opened to allow the crude to gravitate downwards, it will normally remain full. Only a fool would open a vent and potentially allow oxygen into line containing hydrocarbons.
Hi Gruntar,
The pipelines are constructed normally with safety valves to protect the line from over pressurisation normally from a boxed in line.
Almost certainly the message came through to stop the Iraqi feed pumps. No one would just shut a block valve or control valve against an incoming flow unless they wanted to deal with a major crude spill.
Common industry practice is the leaving the line "floating" on tankage. That means no valve actually closed.
Line will slowly depressurise into the tank, but they never empty, normally always some level in tankage so already got a slight head on the discharge side of the line.
Might get some gas flashing off, over time but bar a few hundred tons or so the line will effectively still be full.
When a pipeline is undergoing a total grade change IE: diesel to naphtha, we would normally insert a pig , which is a device like a sausage, with multiple layers of flexible heady duty plastic cups which rub along the inside of the pipe to push the normally slower moving liquid at the inner edge forwards. They are very effective with minimal wastage even over long distances. However apart from some vapour sections, we believe the pipeline is predominantly liquid full, so we can forget about the requirement for thousands of tons to fill.
Clearly there is every opportunity here for large amounts of crude to "vanish", ie being diverted to a grade change tank, and left for a very long time, till that tank fills?
Another one....we are suddenly supplying local refinery our max output with local priced $30 crude....hang on, I didnt think the local refiners could process all our heavier grade crude.....possibly some, but plenty of opportunity here, to give the refinery a small slipstream while the bulk disappears, to be sold at much higher prices, by either transported by pipeline or trucked by road car.
This is Iraq, creaming off at every opportunity happens, even when it was going to Turkey it was going to Israel, with some being creamed off for further profits.
I've a strong holding here, as I believe some good gains will be obtained by shareholders, but fully eyes wide open at the blatant high levels of corruption. Know the majority of posters here share these views.
Hi Itsaponzi,
Think you are becoming confused sir, GKP are putting into the pipe to supply local refiners, any small slipstream into the main export pipe stream might not come from us, in fact I'd be surprised if it did as our crude is very heavy ie: higher sg, which might solidify. Ideally its the normal running grade which is a Kurdy mix. That way it all becomes instantly marketable once enough arrives in Turkey.
Lets not forget that there is a pretty long time from starting to feed the pipeline and having full tankage in Turkey ready for export. We can pretty much guarantee that the Turkish tankage facility is at a low inventory level , so as long as the parties in discussion have an understanding that shipping exports wont start till agreement reached, nothing to prevent a two way flow until that time .Turkish tankage is millions of barrels.
In effect this means GKP might decide to fully start up as we will need every barrel of crude if supplying local refineries (bet its filling their tankage to max first), while supplying exports. Bethe same for all the other kurdy oilers.
Thanks for sharing Morbox,
Article talks about the slow start up which we have heard about so confirms that. However also mentioned a few other things which are new. Firstly that some progress has been achieved in talks, and secondly that talks are continuing on a trilateral basis.
Clearly with crude at $95 dollars a barrel and highly likely to remain there for the foreseeable the cake is big enough now for all to share, even mentions Uncle Sam's input who also want exports as a way of keeping a lid on global crude prices.
Good news for all Kurdy producers.
Being open about things last night when the price was 110p really was an excellent time to take out some serious shorts.(not me). We saw some hefty after hrs trades reported. This is due to some excellent GKP related news, but nothing concrete about the real biggie...thats Turkish crude imports.
So knowing that prices often drift on limited news I think the shorts were well timed.
However shorts have to be re purchased, so in effect its a share price increase in the bank, unless they can be timed with some negative news or sentiment. Good news is share price is now artificially low as a result of this so take advantage for the longer term if you can. This is the biggest fear of shorters, price rebounding and they burn.
Got to start crude flows at minimum rate, not any high rates at all and we would have plenty of recycle on the feed pumps.
This is because the line when it becomes completely hydraulically full with liquid moving forward with exert a forward thrusting pressure head of at least 3 times the supply pressure which can burst lines.
Remember what's in the line is in effect a product mix and has been sat in the hot sun all summer, so wouldn't be surprised to find many gas pockets within the line which will most certainly cause pressure surges and hence the need for min fill rates. Really is no gain for rushing this process and must be done steadily.
Hope this explains things.