Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Yes they do look foolish Mulder, had ample time to sort this out a failed to achieve eve the simplest of tasks. What they need is a stick incentive like stopping of salary until its sorted, but it would be a deal done today then. However knowing Iraq, those thieves will be after back handers.
I remain fairly optimistic of the right outcome
I don't actually believe they will accept our contracts. They could have done that months ago, while at the time trying to blame Turkey for the start up delay the actual fault lied at the door of those in Baghdad, who have been causing all the trouble for years.
Reason being it might cause unrest with the other oil companies which are working to some kind of service contract. Also they have been at loggerheads with the Kurds for years, just this time they are doing what they do best...Munching biscuits while agreeing and back slapping only to go back on it as soon as they return home to Baghdad.
Time to hold ones breath, and dream of a Baghdad politician who isn't bent and corrupted.
Although I'm still bullish it pays to keep our feet planted firmly on the ground as I'm still very wary indeed and distrust the SOMO and Iraqi politicians who could have sorted things out months ago but have chosen not to.
Its clear that Uncle Sam is being removed from Arab dealings worldwide.
2 interesting articles that investors should read. the second one is current, but the first gives the insight.
https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Africa/Iraqs-New-Oil-Law-Highlights-The-Wests-Fading-Influence-In-The-Middle-East.html
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-And-China-Tighten-Grip-On-Iraqi-Oil-Crescent.html
I fully support the oil companies holding out against exporting. Its still clear that the greedy SOMO Iraqi oil officials want much poorer contracts for us, and forgetting that unlike those production contracts in Iraq on known oilfields the Kurdish oilers took all the risk.. Now they are trying to rob them of their rightful rewards by changing the contracts.
Hold out I say, even if the crude doesn't flow this year via the pipeline , because they are hurting much more than us and the oilers hold the whip hand, while they loose the bulk of the income
Also the accurate statement...."Despite previous delays, the current intensity of the talks indicates that a breakthrough may be imminent".
Clearly something has changed dramatically, almost as if they have been instructed to agree and get the crude flowing again??? Great for GKP, but what's this most recent driver that was not there before, or is it the realisation that if it goes on much longer with increasing local sales they wont need the pipeline anyway but will be burdened with empty export line financial penalties.
Yes Theoryman, I picked up on exactly the same things. Almost saying that the FGI officials are actually ignorant of all the small but important details of the Kurdistan oil contracts.?
This is despite spouting garbage for years that our contracts are illegal, they don't even know how they have been set up and who gets what. Really shows up the politicians and FGI officials as actually spouting hot air for years and not knowing what our contract entails.
Why say these comments comes to my mind...I expect its because now they are being discussed they've actually had to come forward and admit they don't really know so are asking our representative to carefully explain. Will probably find payments not that far removed from some in the south, and if they had even taken the time and trouble to do some background research for which they are being paid very handsomely indeed for , could probably have sorted out the issue 10 years ago and avoided lengthy court battles.
Could really struggle to buy 5M shares, Mr. Market and the institutions takes no prisoners when it smells the blood in the water of an over exposed position. Expect the big boys will be contracted first to see if they will release some decent blocks of stock...Failing that if they go to market to fill the order it'll cost them a pretty penny to buy that stock.
I'd wager no sympathy here at all....In fact the complete opposite.
I would still like our company to invest in additional storage tankage, yes some really large tanks will cost probably 5M,
however its a case of "use just once and they've paid for themselves easily.
Know we could not have run at max though out this pipeline shut in, but could have certainly have filled the tanks.
Just gives so much more flexibility, who's to say the export line might leak due to earthquake or man made means, could also charge others for crude storage. I'm thinking of a few million barrels of storage, not a couple of hundred thousand.
Once you scale up size the costs crash.
In my humble opinion its certainly not a time to take profits (not that there's anything wrong with that), as a lot of official news yet to be released which could propel our share price forward a fair bit more.
I'm looking to have confirmed the following.
Payment method for outstanding invoices.
Exporting crude to Turkey via pipeline to commence.
Contracts recognised and fully accepted by SOMO pending alterations if needed to legislation to fully legitimise them.
Right payment for exported crude, and new established timeline for those payments.
When the money then starts to be received our company will then decide how to distribute it.
Still hurdles to cross and essential to keep fingers in pockets during this period. However if the above works out most shareholders will then probably not want to sell, as it will be doing so well.
Still plenty of risk, but clearly Mr. Market believes the above process has started.
When our company does start to receive serious income as a serious shareholder I'd like to see it distributed 3 ways.
firstly R and D, secondly share buyback announced in advance and over several months as an ongoing process. Then divis being given to holders.
This combination I believe would result in a very decent capital growth in shareholder value while increasingly rewarding stock holders. This done over a decent time frame to help stability.
Does appear that after a good few months of waiting shareholders might be on the cusp of being rewarded, but foolish to count any chickens yet as lots of things still might happen to scupper things completely.
However if they do go the way many here hope I believe it might turn out a foolish move to take any quick profits as you might well leave a hell of a lot on the table and subsequently live to regret those actions especially after holding so long.
Just what was being discussed the last few days, Iraqi failure to honour contracts and pay on time knocking confidence in investors eyes, also a major factor in why our current share price is a fifth of what it should be.
Dutch Ambassador puts them straight...Worth a read.
https://www.rudaw.net/english/people-places/15102023
US has not hit Iran, it has hit Syria and at Syrian groups backed by Iran that have been firing at them for days.
https://news.sky.com/story/israel-gaza-latest-israel-sends-tanks-into-gaza-as-troops-complete-ground-incursion-12978800
Agree it will cause a spike in Crude prices
I believe the united stand that the Kurdish Oil companies are taking is not something that's just happened now that the court case that has been dragging on for many years has been finalised.
These actions of jointly withholding crude exports while ticking along nicely suppling the local "marketeers" , have long been discussed and plans drawn up in which they expect to succeed in. Rising crude prices in general are aiding their cause and the huge "unfilled export pipeline penalties", which are being accrued daily is the kicker which Iraq cannot ignore much longer. Throw in the local unrest, and it wont be long until a compromise is reached. Believe it will be a compromise with legitimised contracts not a capitulation from the federal government.
I would also agree that both of you are correct. Any oilfield in the world that falls into a certain countries boundary's belongs to that country and its people. However exploration and extraction contracts (if exploration is successful), give the company certain rights to extract those found products (oil and gas), for agreed percentages normally per barrel. Clearly what you find and in what quantity must reflect in that companies potential recovery quantities.
In extreme cases be it champagne crude that flows naturally at huge rates out of a well, or bitumen shale oil that has to be mechanically dug out. Clearly different values get attached here, as the amount of topside plant required is utterly different, also the time aspect of how long it will take to achieve decent flowrates and the difficulty of extraction.
Certainly our company comes up trumps here, the big negative which is put on our company is actually due to the untrustworthy nature of the local Politian's and volatility of where our fields are situated.
If our oil fields had been in the UK. GKP would not exist, nor would it have even got the chance to explore. If for some reason it had I'm not even going to speculate on what the share price might be.
However there is fair chance now things have come to a head that our contracts will be fully recognised this would clearly remove our biggest obstacle to company development, and attract the sharks without delay.
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Hi Phat,
No mate, long and strong, even looking at topping up further.
Please let me explain.
This is because although I believe the federal politicians are acting not in the countries best interest for all its people, the over arching goal for them is keeping their personal gravy train running.
Believe in a strange way the dreadful middle east unrest, has certainly started to stir things up in Iraq, and when there is a possibility that this unrest may effect their personal gravy train issues may in fact suddenly get resolved much faster than otherwise would have happened.
They don't care about the Kurdish oilers and huge numbers of unemployed, but when those protests start they don't want to be in the rifle sights of any protest. Far better to agree quickly and get the crude moving again and the oil companies spending again, and most importantly the population busy working again rather than laid off and protesting.
Think we may have caught a break here which otherwise might not have happened.
Https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/241020232
Hi Phat, thanks for posting, I've only reposted your article that you found. I actually believe that article gives us exactly nothing new..
Its actually the federal government that are stopping exports, because they are in effect saying "you are free to to export, but we wont pay you what's in your agreement".
All blame is on these idiotic, overpaid, under educated (for proper oil management) family appointed politically motivated politicians.
They complain that 7Billion dollars wasted while their own population goes without work and country slips further into debts, while they prosper. However they've had several months to iron out this easily foreseen issue and done nothing deliberately. Hypocrites the lot of them, while hiding behind a cleverly designed law to give a pittance in payment to kurdish oilers which they know is totally unacceptable, while at the same time publicly saying they are working hard towards a solution while doing nothing intentionally.
As the oil companies have laid off non essential staff this can only add to the unrest.
They actually have only themselves to blame as if they paid the oil companies as per internationally struck and mutually agreed agreements for taking the risk, finding and then developing the oil fields we would not be in this position right now.
The Arab leaders got greedy thinking they could cheat and steal from the oil companies and originally succeeded with payments not sent and then trying to come up with new payment formulas which really had one objective and that was to enrich themselves further as the expense of the oil companies and their backers.
Their actions poison relationships. Many investors here now think what they can take out of this stock then run for the hills, rather than a long term dividend yielding investment.
Not all parties are to blame here so not blaming "all Arabs either", just that I cannot find any innocent ones in power currently in this part of the world.
Have dealt with many Egyptians in the past and also found that they devise many novel ways to try and obtain the extra dollar from clients, which in general UK workers do not. Been informed that Iraq is much worse.
When you report very old news it actually works against your intension. It means investigation was undertaken with due diligence and that unsurmountable obstacles or skeletons were revealed which stopped progress. Every investor on this board knows these facts already so please post any new news you may have or refrain. Very best regards sir.
Completely correct CCC. I refrain completely on any wild share price presumptions because they are certainly pie in the sky.
I take a 2 year view normally , and things with our company are actually going pretty well currently. Our CEO was dying to say the current production figure during the recent excellent interview but cannot due to RNS constraints.. It was clear to hear. Certainly light at the end of the tunnel now, as Baghdad can most certainly see how it can make a lot more money if they just change their rules to accommodate the kurdy oilers as per contracts. They will certainly not want to appear to breach those contractual obligations as it will have repercussions with other investments in Iraq.
All the while they dither losses mount and unused pipeline penalties accumulate, while the kurdy oilers are selling more oil by tanker and pipeline. They also hold a united front which prevents "divide and conquer".
Certainly not out of the woods yet, but in a much better position than we were in late spring.