Member Info for beinthelead

Sorcerer - agree with the sentiment of your post. Thanks. Clearly a few major assumptions in there. Got to be at this stage.

“There must also be a significant possibility that they have already reached the effective maximum therapeutic efficacy of the drug - i.e. if a tumour isn't responding at the current levels, then it's probably Dox resistant and may not respond to at any level.”

They won’t know this at this stage. The ‘halo’ effect you mention, I assume is the stroma? As you say, dox resistance is a real hurdle here. Hence why TMAC is the ‘cure’. Precision (in this case AVA) is the battering ram, brute force access through the stroma that allows TMAC to do its ‘antibody thing’ and fix naturally.

In terms of therapeutic efficiency- I’d like to see them confidently imply it at this stage, and come back and test later. Perfection can be the enemy of good. Let’s get on with it.

RD - I’m terms of circulation time. What do you mean - ‘not long’? It’s half life is 4.5hrs. Significantly more than standard Dox. But a lot less than Aldoxorubicin @ 20hrs. Granted this is rat vs human.

RD - the rampathon has been in force for months, it’s nothing new. The “industry multiplier” line has been played more times than I care to mention. Each time adding a few billion to the outcome.

In terms of “big money later” - it all depends on how they fund raise. If they licence and forward load the platform, the rise will be strong and sustained.
If they don’t organise non-dilutive funding, quickly on the back of data, it’ll be sell on news and fade.

It’s really that simple.

The short position has become a game of chicken, re the above. Therefore, they’re gambling on them NOT securing non-dilutive funding. Not in the hope of poor data.

Who blinks first…

AS and timelines open the door here. As yesterday, I’d not question the delay to patient recruitment, rather the plan to dose cohorts. They should have known in June if cohort 4 was required, and explicitly told us. Instead, the date for implies they don’t need it. Tell us. Absolutely no need in being secretive. It’s not sensitive, confidential or in bad taste.

If they further DE now, it’ll more than choppy. Jupiter would be peeked as it means another 3 months, and back end risks further funding. Simple as.

Agreed on LTH holder comments. Little diff in long (6 months +)

And 2.97% everywhere else. If they cross, we’ll know. Be fantastic if they do, as AS appears to have a close relationship with them.

*Refinitiv

Conifer aren’t holding 3.3%. Why RNS to drop below 3%, then fly under the radar with their top up? Confirmation bias. They haven’t.

There are multiple lists that don’t show Conifer with a holding.

Cellarboy posted a definitive screen cap last year, which I believe is most likely correct. Always amazed me that not one person holding here has access to get a updated screenshot. Do they??

There’s a strategy in play at these relatively low doses. If they can deliver multiples in the TME, plus keep it relatively “normal”. It’s on.

Rip - agree. But dosing is more complex than that. There is resistance. I hitch is where TMAC becomes a cure.

Plus, if we agree a dose at a relative level, we should commercialise quicker.

That makes sense if the scale of the DE’s to date were significantly different - they haven’t been. And quite simply, if there were a 4th cohort (I don’t believe there will), we’d be looking at completing the data package in Jan. and that would be cutting it too fine for cash.

Yes. And why mention they may not see an MTD if not to hint at minimal DLT’s to date? He’d only be allowed to say that if that were true. I’m the first to call out his ramps - but this is another thing all together.

All other prodrug DE trial phases have a much broader, more crude escalation rule. We’re really tight here.

Low doses, but 80% over standard dox, while exhibiting no DLT’s. Absolutely no need to gather more data. Unless biopsies we’re driving it.

RD - I felt the same, re 4th cohort when listening to AS. Myles’s question opened the door for him to imply a 4th cohort is likely not required. He said it may be, and they have funded it.

We’re 4 weeks away from data and no further DE. Which leads me to believe it won’t happen, I.e they have enough to tell them they won’t hit reach a DLT driven MTD.

Timescales are not a good thing to bet on here. Best sitting back. They can’t even confirm if a 4th cohort is required, 4 weeks prior to collecting, analysing and presenting the data.

I sympathise with the delays, but there remains some reluctance to be drawn on details.

The SP is fluid. It’s not a success metric. We should be focussed on next months derisking milestone. Pivotal.

According to AS, yes it will. He was very clear that P3 would be required.

Again in the AGM recording, Myles’s data room question was pretty much dismissed as ‘it’s possible’ by AS.

With you Timster. Few weeks and a nice steady rise from a substantiated base.

Here’s Oneknows, adds zero value but hates unbiased balanced view.

Also calls everyone flippers.

P1a success is all but certain. There aren’t any surprises at this stage that can derail completion. Having not been stopped to date, says they’ve successfully dosed above Dox levels with AVA, and it’s safe. Not DLT’s promoting an MTD @ 120mg. Success right there.

What’s not certain is the level of success we can carry forward. Having listened to the AGM recording, AS quite rightly points out that excitement comes from the biopsy data. Efficacy is key. Not needed at this stage, but will strategise future funding.

Also; To me, he was very clear that any licensing will be post data. Contrary to what has been rumoured to date, re 3996.

Ignore the posts that highlight TW’s actions. Take your own advice.

And if you were so against drawing attention, why kick off the thread first hint this morning? Just ignore it? No - it’s not your MO.

Wyn never learns.

He is trying to get the thread deleted. Which I’m sure he’s reporting as we speak.

Rip is highlighting that there’s a scum bag wishing people who invest in this stock to lose money. With no fundamental basis. A scum bag who was connected to Rivington streets holdings… scum bag.

He’s short at 60p, yet expects it to rise from here before falling?? Even you know that’s useless.

Wyn - stop being so contrary and antagonistic.