Member Info for BeContrarian

JCIT your commends display not just a profound lack of knowledge about SNG and the potential market for it, but about markets in general.

Apple was not the first to bring out a smart phone
Tesla was not the first to make electric cars
Monster was not the first to make energy drinks

And yet they are all massive companies whose market caps of many many multiples.

There is always space in the market for something that is good, or effective, to make an absolute fortune. Timing isn’t all that important and as pandemic becomes endemic, the need will still be there.

Balls of steel trading this share right now.

I know this isn’t the POLB board so I’ll keep it brief.

Polb will be a 10 year hold or a ‘warren Buffett’ hold if you will. You can see they’re in the pipeline building phase and clearly have a direction of travel. It’s exciting stuff with the right man at the helm in Dr Skillington too. No doubt there will be a dip as the lock in ends but long term this is looking a great in species divi.

You’re probably right Hawi.

I thought I was done here in terms of buying but if we see 15p again that’s too tempting not to add.

They clearly see a short term gain on the short but equally a steady walk up in the SP to PTAB could see them getting burned.

Morning guys, totally understand the logic of a Monday RNS for readout having maximum impact, but given the context, I think we will have it as soon as they are ready and they won’t delay by even a single day if the readout is ready for market. The earlier part of the week is of course more favourable but in the grand scheme of things a good readout is making headlines regardless and the market will digest it in time.

Don’t forget the interferon experts too. Sakura told us it was bunk because he was an ‘interferonologist’ in the 1970s. Oddly, despite dedicating many years to interferons, they were still apparently useless.

Honestly the webs some folks weave!

If calling out some of your misinformation a handful of times amongst your avalanche of posts makes me obsessed then so be it.

I was politely suggesting you go out and live a little, instead of wiling away another perfectly good weekend making the same points you did last week, and the week before…I still think that’s good advice, and you’d be better off just taking a little break from the keyboard, especially during a time when the markets are closed.

I’ll leave it there and see you all next week. No doubt you’ll have the customary last word but that’s all from me.

Good luck all.

Bruv, it’s a Saturday, go out and enjoy it. Nearly 7000 posts notched up in a year is no good for anyone.

Contrarian take: A low ball offer would be in the best interests of shareholders.

If, say, AZ came in with a 3 billion bid there’s no way the likes of Roche (300billion) BMS (140 billion) Novartis (240 billion) would sit there and just allow a fully ready golden goose therapeutic go for that sort of money. It would attract an awful lot of attention. A bidding war would ensue.

My own theory is pfizer would be very interested in trying to corner the market a little. Vaccine, preventative therapeutic and a lifeline therapeutic i their armoury would make them very powerful indeed.

All cart before the horse discussion of course. Obvious caveat based on good results!!

Single asset risk doesn’t really apply post readout. Us shareholders are the ones shouldering all of that risk and so premium price for a drug with a massive market should be expected. Sub 5 billion is laughable.

*isn’t a bit of FOMO today

I will be surprised if there isn’t. Bit of FOMO today. We really are at the business end here and there will be lots of nervous fingers tapping that ‘refresh’ button Monday morning!

A buyout of Synairgen post positive readout would break records IMO. In the context of global demand it would be a buyout without precedent. The market is absolutely colossal. The risk big pharma run with a low ball offer is a bidding war. I’ve said it before I’ll say it again. Pfizer ans Merck market caps shifted tens of billions on news (not orders) of their crappy pills.

10 billion+ for a buyout is not out the question, and I don’t think any serious bidder will be messing around s with low ball offers, attracting rivals in the process.

Orc, it’s not all about you either. The board doesn’t need to hear your daily hand wringing. Id wager I’m currently sat on a bigger paper loss than you. If it’s getting too much, I can only assume you’ve cut your losses and moved on?

I absolutely share frustrations regarding the share price, but coming on here with the same old CF bashing is not going to do a thing. Why is it this board is plagued with such relentless whinging?

LTHs know that this will be all about the long game. It’s annoying to see the SP where it is but anyone with an ounce of foresight can see that revenue, cash position, moat, direction of travel etc make it a great investment.

Thought I’d pop back in but the usual bed wetting and gripes continue.

Leo Toole does not need to update the market, we know how much revenue is booked and what that represents vs projections. Even the most green of investors knows that ‘updating the market’ = either ‘we are in trouble’ or ‘panic’. There’s no point and it won’t provide a lift anyway.

OO does not need to be forced, it’s doing really well. It is of course frustrating that this is not reflected in the SP but what is whinging and moaning going to do about that? Get a grip or sell up.

Moni is right to highlight Avacta. One of many basket case companies operating with crazy market caps. Perfect proof that the market is often wrong, and is certainly not efficient.

OO’s time is coming and I’m sure CF and the team are working tirelessly in the background to deliver even higher profits and growth this year. It will take patience, but long term holders will be rewarded handsomely. Those sad acts that come to wring hands every day need to understand that the SP obviously doesn’t reflect the value here, that this is a long term reward with very little risk, or, if you can’t deal with the fluctuations of AIM, pull your money and stick it under the mattress.

The daily moaning from some on here is utterly embarrassing and a poor reflection on this board, many of the good posters on which have since stopped posting as a result.

As many of us are UK investors, it’s natural we have a fairly ‘UK centric’ interpretation of this pandemic. We see ‘everything is over’ according to our media, who, since this all began, seem to simply be an echo chamber for one another. I don’t think the UK picture is as rosy as is being painted, the fall off in testing is a worrying development that will cost lives. No wonder our figures are going down!

I do get the argument that life must go on, but without an armoury of therapeutics we are basically leaving our NHS to the mercy of the worst that this virus can do, arming our hard working doctors and nurses a water pistol to put out a raging inferno.

Anyway, UK aside, the world picture is looking bleak. Only today, the WHO are talking about a ‘west to east’ omicron tsunami, and how Europe is about to feel the full force of omicron. All the while, as this virus runs riot, the risk of mutations grows exponentially, it really is a matter of time before a new variant emerges. There were whispers of a new one in Cyprus but the jury is still out on that one. Either way, allowing a virus to freely circulate is a ticking time bomb that has gone off before and is bound to go off again.

I will resist the urge to get political but the recent response is emblematic of the way in which so many ‘crises’ have been handled in the UK. Dig hole, take head, place head in hole. Thank god that the precious lifeline that is SNG will eventually mitigate such reckless incompetence.

Orc your username does not conjure up a pleasant image let me tell you! Hahaha

Suppose selling price is always a personal decision based on personal horizons and ambitions. If someone has shouldered risk for a year or so and wants to bag their profits, who can blame them.

However, from a purely objective view, I’m coming round to thinking that selling on results makes little sense. In a sense it’s just getting started. No one can ever rule out a black swan event but all being well, good results will be swiftly followed by orders, I can’t see the wait being too long. Maybe a month or two maximum?

You’ve also got to think about how other therapeutics have moved market caps of their parent companies. The precedent set by Merck (approx 18billion added on day pill announced) and Pfizer (approx 22 billion added)means that a good therapeutic is going to eventually be seen as way more than the commonly touted £10 a share. Even if we added half to our Mcap that the pills added to Pfizer/Merck then that puts us at 40/50 a share.

I know these numbers sound mind boggling, and it does sound rampy, but this is the space we are operating in, these are the precedents that are being set in the market.

Dream big folks, and don’t be one of the many UK investors that sell out just as the money train is leaving the station. Try and look at things objectively is the best advice I can give.

Mumbo, Atea was pumped to hell (as with a lot of pharma on Nasdaq) and let’s face it a pill that isn’t efficacious amongst a vaccinated population won’t fly in terms of FDA and western regulatory approval.

I was at that game Terry. Not our finest hour. If I remember right it was curtains for Mick the day after.