Shock and Awe20 Sep 2025 08:12
You really have to just marvel at what has transpired over the last 48 hours. I confess, I can’t get my head around it! That’s not to say I’m surprised because where money is concerned, especially a large rebalance such as was required here, it was always going to be odds on that they would try every trick in the book, and so they did. I just didn’t think they would get away with it quite so cleanly as they did. Perhaps more will become clear in the form of TR1s next week.
Whilst I do partially subscribe to Redirons theory that this is a singular event that was only ever going to produce a singular (and likely temporary) spike. I’d argue that the relentless pressure on the SP in the run up to this has caused an even more profound price dislocation. Just as a very crude comparison, GDX 3 month chart 38%. GGP 0.42%. Now the GDX seems to be faithfully tracking the gold price with a 3x miner leverage, GGP now finds itself even more undervalued. All the while considering that GGP was undervalued vs ASX peers BEFORE this prolonged price bash. I just take heart in the fact that we are fully participating in these bonanza gold prices and that the market cannot ignore this forever.
I genuinely cannot find a mining peer with a tier 1 asset in a tier 1 jurisdiction that is this undervalued. It’s going to be explosive when the market finally twigs what’s going on here. Next quarter results will start that, as will a WDD RNS, but the true afterburners will be lit when Telfer’s mine life is revealed next March. Throw in the DFS (not the sofa) and you can see there’s a real purple patch on the horizon in terms of news flow.
Here to march? 6 months. It’ll be upon us in the blink of an eye.