Member Info for BeContrarian

*the price will have to move BEYOND a simple xmillion buys= xmillion added to the market cap. Key point!!

Nine, you make some good points but there is a rather fundamental error in your thinking.

If there is forced buying in a short time, you are assuming that those $millions will find an orderly entrance point and ample liquidity at whatever price they choose to enter. I’d be amazed if the SP remains stable in such an environment. Factor in gold price rises and a growing realisation that the company is churning out millions upon millions in a red hot sector, along with other catalysts like drill results and a DFS (not the sofa). Surely you can see there will be reluctance from many to sell at the current price and therefore the price will have to move a simple xmillion buys = xmillion added to market cap situation. Whilst these aren’t the ‘facts’ you crave, the one fact I’d like to point out, now clear, is that the drop was not logical, you will likely find the rise, when it happens, not to be logical fOr almost the same reasons.

For what it’s worth I think the whole will we won’t we ASX debate to be hugely overblown. It’s a matter of when not if, what’s a couple of months to LTHs. If not now, a nice present for the new year, from a much higher base I’d expect.

The short will get badly burned if it remains intact much longer. The gold price will see to that.

You can’t keep a good dog down and now people are starting to twig the drop was engineered, and what this company is really all about, the reversal is proving swift.

Our moment in the sun is arriving. This gold price coupled with the Hav FS in a matter of 3 months max. You couldn’t ask for better timing!!

Dark pools, if anyone is interested:

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/050614/introduction-dark-pools.asp

PP - I think that both of those companies have volatility, favouring UTs, but TBH don’t know enough about either company to comment beyond that.

Bellers -perhaps, but these shares could simply be being worked into a dark pool. Us pleb PIs will only find out after the fact, but I’m convinced that accumulation is going on. When gold was last at these levels we touched 18p a share. We have barely budged an inch as gold has climbed from its recent cycle lows of $3250 to current levels. GDX is at 52 week high and the sector is generally going great guns. Keeping the SP stagnant promotes frustration and, eventually capitulation. These late trades allow the volume to stay low, keeping the SP in a very tight range and hoovering weakness.

Rotherby, I reckon these shares are going to very sticky hands, yes, and won’t be coming back to UK shores ever again. But how long this process will take is anyone’s guess.

So I’ve done a bit more digging around the whole after hours situation to try and figure out for myself exactly what is going on.

For comparison I’ve tried to find some companies with a similar trade volume, working right up to much higher trade volumes.

Card factory - 417 trades. 0 late trades reported

Abrdn - 2100 trades 2 late trades totalling 20k shares

Rio Tinto - nearly 8k trades. 3 late trades totalling 9k shares.

GSK - 9900 trades - single UT (looks a transfer as 2x identical amounts) 1.9 million shares.

So looking at this, does Greatland’s activity seem normal to you? Especially given how ‘thinly traded’ (apparently) we are? Do we seem comparable to any of the companies you see there, even though they’re traded far more frequently and therefore are likely on a much thinner spread which makes a UT more likely?

The other two plausible explanations for UTs are thin spreads and volatility. The spread has maintained a healthy range of between 3-4% for the past few weeks. It’s barely shifted from that. Making UTs less likely as there’s a clear gap differential between buy and sell. Likewise, the Volatility has been low. The SP has been eerily calm. So neither of these factors lend any weight to the UTs being a genuine uncrossing situation.

I’ll let you draw your own conclusions but to me it seems clear that there is a concerted effort to keep as much of the big trades off the book during the trading day. Someone is building a position.

Don’t see how this false lid is held on if gold’s gap up continues. That short must be getting warm!!

Nobby I feel like it doesn’t count unless it’s got ‘just saying’ at the end…just saying! 😂

Think it’s important not to put the date on too much of a pedestal. One way or another it’s happening. If not now then in December, with another quarter of results and a Hav DFS behind us. The momentum by this point could be huge.

For every day that passes where the share price remains stagnant, the P/E compresses just that little bit more. This is a cash generative company making millions a week. The longer this goes on, the sharper the upside reversal when reality finally bites.

They’re trying to bore you out of your shares with this mill pond SP. But the canary in the coal mine (pardon the pun) is all these after hours trades going on… it’s my view that the dark pools are in full flow and some massive accumulation is taking place.

Going ballistic

Element when do you anticipate that WDD ore could be feeding the mills? Based on current progress and likelihood of it being a prime development target? Many thanks.

Element when do you anticipate that WDD ore could be feeding the mills? Based on current progress and likelihood of it being a prime development target? Many thanks.

I think if sentiment needs a jolt (and in the current context it does) then drill results may well get released outside the quarterly cycles. You’d hope they’d have the flexibility of approach to play the situation as it stands.

To be honest I don’t think it’s standard practice for drill results to be within the quarterlies, usually that’s separate?

There’s pros and cons to both approaches. You can lose dusters within quarterlies a little easier if financials are good. Conversely, good results (as we saw with some of the cutback drills) can get totally lost within the rest of the info.

Thing is, all this grafting from the likes of Halba (who posted virtually the same message 50 times on the morning of the quarterlies BTW) isn’t producing any volume. The FUD isn’t working!

600k shares traded so far today. That’s paltry for anyone who’s kept half an eye on volume over the last 12 months.

No point engaging with any of them to be honest. Let them have their echo chamber but it won’t be producing any shares to the market that’s for sure.

I think this vindicates Element and a few of our resident trolls owe him an apology (don’t hold your breath though!)

It’s a shame that these results got lost in the wash of the quarterlies. The stage 2 cut back drills, especially in an open pit scenario, seem really good?

§ 36m @ 1.6 g/t Au & 0.07% Cu from 43m (WR30814)

§ 36m @ 1.7 g/t Au & 0.12% Cu from 137m (WR31163)

§ 12m @ 3.1 g/t Au & 0.02% Cu from 97m (WR30813)

§ 19m @ 2.4 g/t Au & 0.46% Cu from 25m (WR29805)

§ 8m @ 12 g/t Au & 0.02% Cu from 33m (WR31638)

§ 8m @ 5.2 g/t Au & 0.20% Cu from 52m (WR31915)

§ 31m @ 1.3 g/t Au & 0.03% Cu from 136m (WR29807)

§ 15m @ 2.1 g/t Au & 0.08% Cu from 11m (WR31324)

§ 35m @ 0.9 g/t Au & 0.10% Cu from 32m (WR27634)

Marshall, a good thread on the topic (in addition to Element’s cogent analysis) here:

https://x.com/TFMetals/status/1953092459073826973

Don’t think that this has been posted so will post here.

Can’t say they didn’t warn us!

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/official-reserve-revaluations-the-international-experience-20250801.html

Even if it’s not a rumour it’s a pretty open and shut case.

They can explain why the guidance was revised.

They can show that guidance is still within its original range and is not a complete mismatch to the flotation estimates.

They can point to the risk factors highlighted within its own prospectus.

They can explain that clearly the market reaction was not reflective of the details within the revised guidance.

Given the above I’d be astonished if anything came of this, even putting to one side the fact that it’s all hearsay and rumour dressed up as a story with any credibility whatsoever. The gaffer has said that they haven’t been contacted and a member of ASIC is not going to be discussing anything sensitive with media so of course it’s going to be ‘no comment’.