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The last placing in March 2024 valued Hemogenyx at £90M (fair market value) for their £3.5M raise. Importantly, while the share price (SP) may fluctuate, the venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE) firms investing are likely in it for the long haul, so short-term SP movements have minimal impact on their strategy—unless worst-case, like Mint, they sell off immediately.

A bigger risk of dilution, however, comes from the possibility of a Big Pharma takeover. If a major player gains enough shares—whether through market purchases or what would be a mistake, another dilution raise—they could potentially acquire a majority stake and control the company without needing a licensing deal. This is a risk if there’s another dilutive placing without a significant ‘fair’ market cap increase (above £90M).

The best scenario for us would be if the next round of funding is non-dilutive with any initial solid clinical results. This could push the market cap up to £100M+, and with that SP valuation, fair market value could be significantly higher, in which any future dilution would be significantly less impactful. Following that, Hemogenyx could raise funds to continue developing their pipeline without risking a takeover or excessive dilution. Just my thoughts of how it is likely to play out.

£30,000 yesterday, £100,000 today—this looks like institutional buyers spreading their risk, slowly accumulating positions. That’s a great sign for those of us who are long-term holders (LTH).

I hold over a million shares accumulating more each year since 2020, and with Hemogenyx's clear progress with Car-T, I believe we're getting closer to a game-changing moment. Likely the trigger will be strategic partnership with a major pharma player, which could bring in the non-dilutive funding Vlad needs to take through stage 3 and beyond.

Given their raises in Sept 2023 and March 2024, Hemogenyx likely had around a 9-12 month cash runway, considering the costs of advancing their CAR-T therapy. That said, if non-dilutive funding does land as part of the next big announcement, we could see this stock skyrocket like nothing we’ve seen before.

The potential for a partnership is real, and it’s not a matter of if, but when given their runway is likely March 2025. Once that news hits, this stock could be poised for one of the biggest jumps in the biotech sector.

Given you’ve been here for years more then me, who do you think might be their partner?

My research indicates that there are 7 competitors to Hemo, with a similar phase 1 trial acquired in 2023 for $245 million (Cellular Biomedicine acquired by J&J).

Competitors and their current Car-T projects:

• Janssen (J&J) owns C-CAR039 and C-CAR066 at stage 1 ($245 million investment).

• Novartis is a global leader in Car-T trials with 5+ Leukaemia Car T products at stage 3 and 2.

• JW Therapeutics owns Carteyva at stage 1 (Internal product)

• Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) has approved Lymphoma CAR-T and stage 1 and 2 for Leukaemia.

• Gilead has approved Lymphoma CAR-T and HuCAR-19 for Leukaemia at stage 1.

• AstraZeneca has internal projects and acquired Gracell Biotechnologies for $1.2B.

• Pfizer has part investments in Car-T therapies, like Caribou, Allogene and Ceelectis

Currently, there are 6 FDA approved Car-T therapies:

• Kymriah (Novartis)

• Yescarta (Gilead)

• Tecartus (Gilead)

• Breyanzi (BMS)

• CARVYKTI (J & J)

• ABECMA (BMS)

Potential future acquirers of HEMO with my rating:

• Eli Lilly (News indicates interest in more non-solid product candidates) 8/10

• AbbVie - Added Umoja Biopharma at $1.44B minimum for solid tumours, interested in more 6/10

• Pfizer - If it decides to own IP, instead of Partner would be a contender 5/10

• Merck and Co - Artiva, Focussed on solid tumours 3/10

• Roche - Focused on solid Tumours 3/10

• GSK - Rolled back their Car T investments, focusing on scaling technology for the industry 2/10

Recent acquisitions have been at $200 to $250 million. Positive trial results would lead to MCAP 8-10X share growth, but HEMO could have offers at $120-150m even before then. After March 8th, we likely have 6-8 months (December 2024) until the 36 or so patients' results are published, which would come immediately with offers for acquisition.

Never been closer to an actual result than 2024. If you're long-term invested, you shouldn't care about day-to-day prices.

As with many of the people holding right now I got in at the highs of 2020.

Currently sitting on a large loss, even when I’ve bought more still sitting on a 66% deficit.

The potential of this company is astronomical. They have more money in the bank then their market cap.

Let’s get to clinical trials, get life saving treatments out to the world and all make a lot of money. Wish I could buy more at this price. Pretty confident I’ll make my loss back by end of Q3.

I thought the CDX news had already been announced that they were moving forward?

What RNS are we waiting on about this?

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/HEMO/cdx-antibody-update/14921850

I have held stock in Hemo for over a year, and have been looking at adding more as a long term investment. However, I am finding it hard to find data on how big the market is for their products, should they be successful in reaching the clinical stage, and proving their effectiveness.

Does anyone know the size of the current financial drug market they're looking to disrupt/improve. - effectively how much revenue are they likely to generate from their products if it goes well? Typically you would find this data abundantly clear at the IPO stage where they outline their market, but I haven't been able to find it.

The knowledge I have is (internet searches):
Transplants during blood cancer (hu-Phec product) - (9.9% of all cancers are is in this category)
CDX Antibodies (effectively 3.3% of all cancer is leukaemia).
Cart -T - (9% of all Leukemia is Acute Myeloid Leukemia).
Excluding humanised mice/covid treatment - they don't have patents so not really interested in this.

If these treatments only help 1000 people a year then it's not going to be profitable, but if it would treat 100,000, then that's the data I want to know. Any help/info is appreciated!