HEMO communication7 Oct 2024 19:23
My personal opinion after spending my weekend researching every part of this stock and the pre/clinical market.
Hemo is unlikely to secure non-dilutive funding at this stage, as most companies only manage that after Phase 1 results, which for CAR-T typically take 12-18 months. If they manage to secure it earlier, it would be exceptional, with a more realistic timeframe being winter 2025 or early 2026.
They can issue up to 20% of their total shares annually, which means they still have around 166 million shares left to issue. While dilution is a concern, the key will be the price at which these shares are placed. A higher price, like the 5.6p Prevail paid, would minimize dilution compared to a lower price like their previous 2p placements, and could even increase the share price if investors like Prevail continue to hold their shares, signaling confidence in the company.
One major concern right now is the mass sell-offs of the stock, like today, which have driven the share price down significantly. This is largely due to no funding announcement being made yet, leading to uncertainty. This exact scenario has happened three times since I’ve been invested, and it’s shaken investor confidence. The last funding round in 2024, after the FDA lifted the hold on HEMO-CAR-T, saw a spike to 6.30p, but the price fell to 1.18p by August, driven by slow trial progress and a lack of communication.
Despite the dilution risk, announcing funding—dilutive or not— will help calm the SP and provide some stability by addressing the current cash flow concerns. People are selling because Vlad always announces or obtains funding late, and investors don’t want to risk their money in that scenario.
For many long-term holders (LTHs), this investment is more than just financial. Many are either cancer sufferers or family members of AML/ALL patients, invested in the hope of seeing these treatments succeed. We’re all in this together, hoping for a breakthrough.
My personal opinion is that dilution funding is likely, with a $3-4m raise, probably at 2p. This may be followed by a government grant from the US military for viral infections, and then by late 2025, a partnership or acquisition by a large pharma company once data has been released.