Stockopedia28 Oct 2020 15:15
Risks remain. The reduced mining operations of certain host mines continues to impact on feed grades and Q1's PGM production decreased 14% year-on-year. This is something to monitor going forwards. There have also been issues with water access and energy supply to its sites in the past.
There is always the big unknown of the PGM spot prices. That’s probably the most important factor in the whole investment case, so you need to take a view here. Mine is that current prices will be at least maintained due to structural demand factors but others may disagree on this point.
In my view the valuation continues to compensate for the risks involved and I’m holding for a sustained rerating.
The near-return to historic levels of production is a creditable performance in light of the COVID disruption and government-imposed industry shutdown faced by this miner earlier in the year. The brokers are targeting 100p+ and, given the low valuation metrics, that doesn’t seem unreasonable to me assuming spot prices are at least maintained and there are no further operational disruptions.