Member Info for BaysilHope

Serica's EPS was hit by WT - Corp tax £66m on £194m NBPT - SP muted really. EPS was 43p H1 FY should be 86p FY EPS 86p - SP £3.58 - PE ratio +4.2.

HBE - When FY 22 plays out - EPS +$2.25 or £2.10 - HBR should not be languishing around £4.50. As Soder states Net debt is Debt $2bn & cash £2bn, banks will lock your facility in to maintain the debt and the profitable hedging part. Therefore - the best use of $2bn = FREE CASH is to acquire =M&A. replenish reserves and boost output, until longer term plays kick in.
Unlike Serica - which is young developing business, HBR has a multitude of mature ops for capex and get the tax relief to oppose the full impact of WT. HBR has scale - sufficient enough to operate constructively in the O&G M&A - enough SCALE for offloading Big oilers - without recourse to debt. GLA

NO not a remake - quote “We announced earlier this year to our investors and to the city that our goal is really to double, double double. Our goal is to double our monthly active users to 20 million, to double the number of streaming hours on our streaming services to 2 billion streaming hours and double subscribers over the next five years.”
A new destination, not a catch-up service

just listening to the developments and ITV with be the Tesla of broadcasting, innovative - ahead of the curve - has global linear production for live events and sport and will share World cup with 35 other partners.

As Lennon says- just give ITVX a chance. This is looking good - not rushed, quality well thought out planned improvements - I think this will become a world class platform and deliver growth over the next few years. Impressed. GLA

BOE base rate 2.25% is obviously set too low and way off what the Market is expecting to secure funding and support capital inflows - see UK 10YR yields, which are falling back from 4.25%. The BOE have been overly cautious and is behind the Inflation curve, hence the sterling crisis and FX is the tool used by the market to activate change. UK 10YR is now +4.10% - a very wide convergence indeed - demonstrating lack of credibility in the BOE by global players..

Until the BOE act and act decisively - the FTSE is going to get played IMO, with markets using yield & FX as whips to play us. The govt City reforms should be good for the market but need time to implement. Given this marco economic background, HBR SP IMO will lack any meaningful conviction - up or down IMO, (especially with the SBB done) until we get closer to the TU, not because of trading fundamentals, rather than the vagaries of the Market. As soon as the BOE gives clear sight of realistic UK Basic rates, we will be at the mercy of the Global money peeps. The BOE have only bought time, it is still wide open to attack. I'm sitting on the fence for a while on all my holdings, I hate this situation for trading - its too muddy and volatile. GLA

Is it finished? Need an update and will it be continued.

Can BOE & KK stop the run on sterling after today's bland press release. Judging by Sterlings response = Now. $1.07. I'm only joking of a comp, I guess there will be an emergency rate hike this week, (only what they should have done last week & bit them in the bum +0.75%), especially when they are asking the market to fund the deficit. HNY GLA UK 10YR thru 4.24% FFS. Andrew Bailey - Jesus H .

This was - Always going to be a game of 2 Halfs - First the PC DISGUST by the City of a Pro City Budget FFS !!??? - smash the obvious use UK 10 YR yields to hammer shares - carefully forgetting the PM saved the UK from a Cliff hanger recession from energy costs.

2. Once the City are feed and watered - with all manner of new legislation post Brexit and bonuses and a clearer vision of the less tax future we'll stabilise. Until then - this is a buying oppo sub 60p - given the + £150bn cash into the UK economy - once the threat of higher interest rates fade. Unlike the US which needs too cool after so much Covid Stim, UK different we are in recession, so things should moderate by the Q3 TU and H! divi - GLA

Quote H1 'Pre-tax profits were $1,490 million (H1 2021: $120 million) and profit after tax amounted to $984 million (H1 2021: $87 million). This increase in profit is primarily due to higher revenue, recognising a full six months of Premier earnings, foreign exchange gains of $360 million offset by a total tax charge of $506 million. The foreign exchange gain consists mainly of unrealised gains arising from revaluation of open gas hedges denominated in Pound Sterling. - That was sterling $1.17 US dollar add another +8% gain and then the forward hedging diminish, FY 22 results will be a monster.

This week IMO is all about BOE & Gilts UK 10YR rate. GLA SP Comp I'm out. Got my pants caught on the fence.

Gift sub 61p - where else can you gain yield FFS - +8% and ENJOY THE PRODUCT - watching great stuff - you have a cash positive business, debt in control and going forward- - Low risk added again today sub 61p. Ex div 20th Piece of Piff

If Lizz did nada, UK economy fecked - Sterling worthless, now she has saved the UK & business next 6 months and stopped Corp tax - slammed. So A Brucy Bonus Bank charter and the City slam it, until they get home, call the boss and rework the Maths. Another case - as the BB states MM manipulation. I am concerned with HBR of the SBB ending next week, which limited my +adds today. Fundamentals are excellent but so are the dark Arts with HBR MM's Nobbitts. GLA

Premature trade - so to speak & BP - POO sub $86, US 10 YR cooling from 3.8% to 3.71% - - could be an error but you have to take risks. GLA

Clued I agree need to be in O&G before winter, this will bounce - no doubt - just fxing nervous after the last kicking.

Thx Rookie, I'm still down on my plus 5's I hold before the big slide. I haven't seen BP drop like this for a long while sub £4.30, there's some mean stuff being played out here. Always temped to dive back in but there could be more trouble Monday I guess? Calling a floor is mega hard but I will get stuck in next week. GLA - we all need it.

Point I made last week below - it's the Rate hikes in the US - FOMC much tougher-10yr yield 3.755% - S&P 500 down 50pts as we speak - I think the next few days will be tough as the US re-adjusts to higher rates for longer.& UK rates reaction.
Quote - 'Added some today but will wait until next week rides out, Fed rate hike Wed, BOE Thurs, expect US to challenge June 22 lows 3600'ish when FT100 hit 7000 - with PMI's on Fri - following Fedex. GLA' Hugely unlike me - I had a small short on this last night, after watching US 10YR yesterday afternoon - I'm back to cash and will add later.

Mini budget tmz, £150bn stimulus to the UK economy and we are talking about celebs FFS, this is an investment - go twitter and get more views.

The problem faced by PI's is the extreme SP volatility, HBR fell from £5.38 to £2.98, a 455 drop - then rose to £5, then fell back to £4.44 with unchanged fundamentals!!! That rarely happened 30 years ago, the explosion in financial instruments aligned with the massive expansion in tech - translates you have to factor in volatility to your LTP. The HBR SP crash changed my thinking completely, I have a deep distrust of MM's and hopefully won't get wrong footed to such a massive extent next time. I have a LTP - lowered by profit taking but now focus on the short term risks and rewards of the market.

There are massive economic shocks currently in play and risk dynamics fluctuating daily, so to sit and watch the world go by is one way of dealing with it, I no longer support that posture. I hold more cash now - as a % of investments that I ever have and take a far more defensive line and attitude. I sold HBR today - as I think the conclusion of the SBB will withdraw 2m shares bought per day and opens the door to risk. Simple as.

Sekforde - I did a very quick calc, 38m of the SBB was sub £4 - £3.60 Av, I reckon we have 3-4 days left at the current £10m buys per day, so next week it will finish. Regarding EPS - allowing for summer maint'ce and WT, H2 will have 6 months of Tolmount flat out (2mths at 15k H1) & $1bn less debt so Interest costs should fall $50-60m - so EPS should be strong with 62-64m less shares or +7%. With the TU not far away, I guess they will announce further SBB's at this cheap SP. GLA

For the first time today, I got in at the bottom £4.734 and sold at £4.88.4 - the norm 99% - I've either bought too late or sold too early. I'm off to the pub now and wait for Liz Mini Budget.

Wow Global business - dissed by Monkees. Cause S4 Cap got it wrong FFS HNY

NSS great post and thanks for the link, I missed this and its Shell - Linda loves shell. GLA

What the feck are you guys talking about - Max Int rate 4% - Nobody mentions 1992 FFS - How much did interest rates go up on Black Wednesday Sept 1992?
The following day, the pound was hit by wave after wave of selling, prompting Mr Lamont at 11am to raise interest rates from 10% to 12% and then, three hours later, from 12% to 15%. I was an Accountant in manufacturing business - and the bank relationship went mental on the OD - Add banks margin we were paying 18% on the OD - Utter Boloraes
Sub 5% EHHHHh - what were mortgages like in 1992 at 12% FFS - You - too young - this is a piff take,

Rookie1 - I get the frustration but the world economy is reacting to unprecedented economic shocks, with post covid demand recovery, hyper-inflation, quantitative tightening, supply side constraints and war in Europe. S&P 500 is in correction, energy crisis, UK £150bn bailout. HBR is doing relatively well I think - all things considered.

My main concern with HBR is timely reserve replenishment, in 2022 we will produce +70Mboe with long lead times for mega projects to grow reserves. IMO DYOR there needs dome form of M&A - not a mega takeover or merger, rather buy in to medium term time horizon projects or undervalued acquisitions- to maintain momentum and diversify production, which is too focused in the North Sea. Hence a possible takeover CNE for £400m Net of their $600m cash. Diversification, reserves, quality management etc etc easy bolt on for petty cash, reduces risk concentration again - win win. GLA