Member Info for BaysilHope

Rookie, I just prematurely ejac'd on Phase 2 and had a few £4.06, still waiting but need some exposure to sub £4.10 & sub £3.80. Had a quick look at US CPI and just penned this quick review - waiting for my Sky Bet Account to load up.

Very briefly -

My estimate for CPI are 8.1%, down from 8.3% last month. Right now, the Cleveland Fed is forecasting a CPI of 8.2%. Meanwhile, core CPI is estimated to rise to 6.5% from 6.3%. The Cleveland Fed is looking for the core to rise to 6.6%. Given how reliable the Cleveland Fed’s forecasts have been over the past year, you could see why the market might be nervous heading into those reports. Headline CPI has beaten the Cleveland Fed’s forecast 10 out of the last 11 times and 15 out of the previous 18 times. So that may suggest that the consensus forecasts are too low.

PPI today confirmed inflation is persistent. Tonight FOMC more doom and gloom - I think whatever the results tmz they will smash the market and continue with the UK Friday showdown. Next week - massive rally after BOE cave in on more support.

I which I was at college again studying classical economic theory and then listened Liz Truss and triple K, I would have to DOR - Drop On Request. I just can't believe it. GKA Government Knows All FFS

Phase 2 starting to look cheap. Watching and waiting like a Mo Salah supporter.

Out at £4.20 when I saw Uncle Bulgaria trying to appease the sharks. Then Liz says no to tax cuts, unbelievable Jeff. Didn't want to but Phase 2 is cash. GLA & GKA - Government Knows All. Bolares.

Great post Pleebs, makes things a lot clearer, great input as always. Cheers BH.

bailey telling pen funds they have until Friday 14th Oct to sort out their collateral issues, after BOE only spent £5bn in 10 days. Blackrock - Merrill Lynch just waiting until the 17th Oct. If this wasn't so serious I'd have a breakdown, Andrew is playing with our pension FFS - he is an absolute Womble, trying to be like Uncle Bulgaria, send the twaht there. We need a bigger boat.

It's shocking to say the least. GLA £4 coming OYE OYE. I'm not short, with at Brent $94 as I believe we are so undervalued and want to concentrate purely on adding - with less than 3 weeks to TU..

Missed it - still 2 days to go - US Earnings season, only O&G will not disappoint - lost the article - but most other sectors will disappoint. GLA

At that stage - seems way overdone. Got ITV and they will not sit down, up - so that tells me a lot. When a share exposed to the market compares to HBR - and we are smashed GLA

Great Bloomberg interview with CIO of Coutts worked in pensions industry, rush for liquid assets - Pen funds selling certain derivatives at distressed levels. He states - why BOE have done so little?? - only bought £5bn in 7-8 days and much more needed for longer, at the long end. Markets will test this until BOE threw the artillery at it. Also US 10YR and PPI Wed, with FOMC then CPI 13th, get this out of the way first.

Will watch and add when I feel things have an exit. GLA

Hi Indy, am still here, I found it worrying HBR did NOT react to Brent increase, others not massively up. I've been watching 10YR UK yields rising steadily, to test BOE and pension fund liquidity - Quote UK borrowing costs shoot higher as Bank of England warns of pension 'contagion' -Its decision comes after eight auctions so far in which the Bank offered to buy £40bn worth of bonds but only succeeded in buying £5bn worth. The Bank has been purchasing the gilts using newly created money in a process known as quantitative easing.
However, analysts have warned that the intervention fails to adequately address the underlying issue.
Antoine Bouvet, senior rates strategist at ING, said: “The suspicion is that risk reduction by pension funds has been too limited so far.
“The question is do they have enough cash to meet new collateral requirements if the gilt market sells off again, as the gilt purchases by the Bank of England end this week.
"I think the fear is that the answer's no and that it will trigger the same snowball effect that we had two weeks ago.”

I think this Macro Issue is dominating the Market - If pension funds are forced into a fire sale. UK Base rates too low BOE fault IMO. Looking to add at discount to this SP. Waiting to see how this plays out. Cheers BH

ITV are mega profitable, the ITV studios are a growth machine underwriting TAR. The FX is helping UK studios get a cost advantage. ROCE - Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.24 = UK£688m ÷ (UK£4.6b - UK£1.7b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2022).
Thus, ITV has an ROCE of 24%. In absolute terms that's a great return and it's even better than the Media industry average of 12%.
The Marco Economic headwinds are already priced into the SP Sub 58p, downside is protection is key. ITV are operating at near record levels of trading. I'm fine and will hold and add at 55p. GLA Ex div 20th Oct can't wait.

Let's all take this down. Well played. Couple on here I would not be in a trench with fighting the foe. You all know the game, don't sell your souls, yes short but don't become a **** FFS. GLA

BOE has not resolved the Base rate differential with the global markets, mortgages on hold, wave 2 is coming - sit tight IMO GLA - did OPEC cut 2m/day or increased output by 2m? FFS- that's frustration.

Knew it - Train strike! Back on the bus tmz GLA

Bags are packed , can't wait.

2 Mil baby - rip it up.

OPEC might cut 1MB tmz, most OPEC members can't hit their quota, Russia will be backed into a corner Dec 22. US SPR release to fade and winter. All the focus last week is on the budget, ore importantly is the energy deficit. I think Europe have been playing it down on Gas and Oil this winter- in the face of a Lion aggressor.

Reality US has shot its bolt - SPR release
Russia are fomc
OPEC knackered no spare capacity
Winter
China rebound - Chinese New year
Arsenal v Liverpool no brainer.
Sub $100 POO is a joke - the play is be patient and wait. GLA HNY

Jesus that's the same cleaner I met, clever girl isn't she.

stingaling-Haven't you ever worked in industry - the Shop floor is the working guts of the business, where peeps grind out the jobs. Should have said horse's mouth maybe.

Comrieman, I always return a favour with one. He's looked after. GLA

If you invest £160m in content IT infrastructure developing a USP, the downside risk is limited - surely. It's not meta fuzzy money, but hard wired 3rd party verified addon. It does risk the divi - with recession overtones, its a risk that has to be taken in order to survive in a IT structured industry.