Member Info for BaysilHope

Potential 2m cuts coming before winter - then sanctions of Russian Oil by the EU Dec - downside risk must be covered.
BTW - Mate of mine O&G industry pump supplier - said met HBR last week, rumours Debt free now = on the shop floor. Same guy warned me of COVID after his Chinese suppliers update Feb 20 - he was right I shorted PMO. GLA

You would not say that if England won the World Cup- would you? I'd say it.

Indy excellent prognosis, thanks for your insight appreciated. Good luck - I hold long here, will add bargain hunting -after TU bang its right up.

Don't disagree Indy, but I've lowered all holdings. Last point what do you reckon on Base rates, when and by how much?. Cheers

Well I've really enjoyed this week, the ups, the downs, the macro turmoil. Just sold up yesterdays no brainer. Closing down earlier today (Coogan Bluff rally) - long weekend off. GLA Next week Tory conference can't wait - US CPI data 13th, Gilts finish 14th Oct, S&P UK re-rating 13th, OPEC 5th, come on - what's not to like?

Also ITV H2 always stronger with the seasonal effect 45/55 1st to H2. Interesting to see the Royal effect at the TU global coverage which did ERII proud.

Thank you Thunder2040- replace depletion being saying that on this BB for months- it will happen - Why Searg, cause it HAS to happen. Great link ta.

Rookie - agree with the mind games. All Global Mkts attack UK are on a short, the pump up Labour, part of it. Yet what's the tax differential between the 2 Liz & KS?.

1. Keep HR tax - raise +£2bn
2. Corp Tax keep +6% +£20-5bn additional tax
3. Ratchet up WT maybe +£10bn - before they leave the NS

How the FECK is that going to fund the energy support scheme???? - Labour will have to borrow +£120bn. Labour would still face the BOE error on Base Rates and mortgage increases. Great British Energy - or the Flying Dutchman is A Melton Mowberry pork pie in the Sky within a 2-3 year time frame.
This is all about getting BOE to equalise Interest rates, which they are too scared to do. FFS BOE get BR to 4% and swallow a glug, like the rest of the world. Once this mess is sorted we are away - not long.

Compared to many other FTSE Co's HBR is holding up really well all things considered, Develops more confidence in the MM reaction. Very happy with the recovery from £4.27 which I missed - too nervous. Will rethink.

We all know the markets will corner BOE and rates will hit 4% soon 3-4wks. Will hit business and mortgages and general debt but manageable OR ENERGY

The Energy crisis, this time last month UK Plc was facing energy bills quadrupling - for business and individuals. This would have caused massive SME failures, huge rise in unemployment, the end of the world etc etc. This budget has stopped that ( The end of the World scenario) - but has caused a Mkt spasm. When this is corrected - next 3-4 weeks, then the brakes are off. This will re-rate sharply as the World Cup build up starts. Hitting sub Covid - What a fecking liberty! Brill.

I'm surprised no-one has taken a sizeable stake, low risk reward here. The cheaper this gets, the greater the upside. Seen this many times when a new product or paradigm shift draws out the shorts. Yes UK Mkt is down, ITV was down already - I've added at 55p and can't wait for the divi and TU Nov, will max at 50p

IMO - I am holding less shares than say 2 months ago, still have HBR. The markets have an opportunity to smash the UK, through past BOE mistakes (base rate too low 2.25% whilst US rates up US$ charging ahead) and Liz & KK, child like expresso mini budget fast (No detail or forecasted budget funding requirement - like me going to bank with a fag packet business plan in a recession FFS) . A large part of the budget saved lives - energy, supply side reforms and growth Brill, markets want rates up and will use FX to get their way. BOE too far behind inflation curve - should have hiked quicker months ago.

Next flash point Monday Tory conference - then Sterling attack, according to certain news - Sterling hits $1.035 BOE will have to raise rates, they can't defend sterling, no reserves. So its only a matter of time - next week. Until then I'm holding off building - ALL stocks. Bargains will abound. UK 10YR up 20 basis points today and climbing. GLA DYOR. HBR will do very well, when this mess settles down before the TU.

There are two things now keeping me awake at night.
1. The Mrs snoring
2. UK Base rates 2.25% - when UK 10YR +4.18% is NOT fixed and still rising - that can cause a Soros moment

I was there on that day Base rates +3%. Mkts will push BOE for an emergency rate increase before Nov 3rd (it's conflict alright) - and mkt Volatility will be berserk. HNY To counter point 1 above, I haven't had my ears cleared for 20 years, still not enough.

We all thought today might get some relief, FTSE down 150 before my toast was finished. There's a scrap in play here, Mkts Truss BOE etc and the BOE will need to get rates to 4% - very soon but are hiding away from it! - spells trouble. There will be mkt pain as this gets played out. 50DMA £4.18, 200 DMA 407ish. I'll wait, until there is a bit more Structural movement securing longer term stability, expect large volatility and play it. GLA

How the BOE didn't think the differential between the US 4% strong dollar would not effect Uk 2.25% rase rate when inflation is 10% FFS? thats the root cause IMO and they're using the mini budget to smash the UK's incompetence. IMF stating 45% tax band trouble - it only equates to £2bn tax, games are being played here to get UK up to speed.

There will be some bargains about soon. Good hunting.

OK It didn't recover FTSE 100 in a mess - just creates the oppo to get 50p where I'll add a lump. GLA

Netflix shares up +10% today - Netflix gets upgrade at Atlantic Equities, which says ad-supported subscriber tier can boost stock by 26%,

ITV will recover strongly tmz, Gilts calm for now, FX OK for now, fundamentals strong. GLA

Hurricane, Russia targeting infrastructure to boost price and OPEC will cut next meeting next week. Limits HBR downside.

This will become irresistible soon, in mar 20 divi suspended, studios closed, no vaccine, no end in sight, financial chaos. today the problem is inflation, slowing world group - (that stopped in 2020.
No doubt BOE needs to raise rates UK 10YR +4.5% gilts 5%. Inflation won't last forever. ITV has made great steps last 2 years and a large part of the investment in products has been done, 10% yield possible at 50p, no requirement for refinancing, which is now thru the roof.
Advertising will be supported by World Cup - IMO at 50p all the risks are more than factored in with a PE ratio of sub 5. Then its massively OVERSOLD. The yield will allow PI's to hunker down and wait for the recovery.

I think MM's are valuing this as a TECH stock FFS and ignoring the fundamentals, or just using ITVX to short. Netflix PE ratio 20. Redic

Totally Agree LC, must move away from NS - can't get exposed to labour and a WT increase, hence I think CNE is a smart move for Net $400m, after their $600m cash and 40kboepd , get exposure to another overseas hub and can reduce certain debt at the same time. GLA

Costs of UK Corporate refinancing going thru the roof, HBR completed theirs just at the right time. One less risk to worry over.