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M & A - CNE better value than SQZ15 Sep 2022 16:59
Rookie1 every time I've mentioned M&A you stated the opposite, yet today you recommend a SQZ TO. If HBR truly want a balanced Multi-National portfolio they could get CNE for $400m net of CNE's cash - or 6 weeks cash flow and get 40kboepd, in Egypt & more tax losses. CNE - as a business model are in a dilemma or limbo, II's don't like the TLW deal and will vote it down, CNE have $630m cash in hand and +12 other licences including GOM being drilled.

CNE is not dynamic but its gas a quality (Ex Shell) producing infrastructure 50:50 POO & Gas strengthens their portfolio base, whereas SQZ will just add the same output as Tolmount and increases exposure to WT & NS. With CNE you are not buying any premium, Egypt gas is price tied but POO mkt rates, CNE would be a cigar but deal, as Warren Buffett would say, you can extract so much more out of these assets and development leads in the area than the price paid and gain CNE expertise - easy bolt on acquisition. IMO DYOR, CNE could be paid out of HBR petty cash and no fight put up. GLA

Linda's contacts in Shell could provide more off loads for offshore assets in that area. Just a thought, I would do it - it would distract management from any other key priorities. HNY GLA

Hi D4u don't fecking tell me to invest twat - HBR FCF has options to move 50% of its productions overseas thru M&A $3bn War chest - that's not factored in - the Shorter's have the day, let's have a conversation in 3-4 days - one big deal and there will be a short bloodbath, all the risk is for an upside risk NOT down, we've done all that. You can hold an SP down against fundamentals only (artificially) for so long - as they say, with winter coming O&G prices one way UP UP and Nordstream is CLOSED PERMANATELY - so take your chancers position and feck off, this is going One Way. I've added today at the bottom and made profits.

The WT fog/cloud is a play, Since BP Q2 results - their SP has increased +16.5%, HBR has decreased from £4.94 to £3.74 -24.3% that's the anger as this IN NO WAY represents the performance of the business, NOR the RISKS, why we have to be subjugated to this insult is what winds me up. MM's are penalising the SP mercilessly on a PE ratio of probably under 2. That's what get me. Well whatever the truth will out after 3 more trading days and then the market can judge for itself. The WT was factored in 25th Aug when we hit £4.94 - at £3.74 they must have priced in WW3. GLA GN of out.

The Treasury must realise that in order to capture Billions of BOG OIL mega profits, they will need to design a tax vehicle that is specific to the Big Oilers and not destroy the smaller independents. Smashing HBr is not going to generate $10bn. This has to be thought through and make it BIG OIL specific- being a fair tax. HBR is paying WT and will pay more Corp tax next year due to the threshold increase. IF BP and Shell are getting green energy subsidies- fecking smash that FFS. Common sense must prevail here. GLA DYOR - And fecking Shell should feck up and grow up and stop spreading caca throughout the industry, wenkers. Own up stop taking the subsidies.

I had my finger over the trigger at £3.75, then it misfired. I recommend this share for anyone suffering from mental illness, its a screaming buy. Thank God this weeks over ffs.

I wish Shell would feck up. We are paying our way in tax FFS. The Corp tax rate is up next year so that should be that.

Fear of Moving Objects. Can't wait. 3 mths of Tolmount 22k unhedged gas at +$230/BOE huge boost to FCF. Hopefully news on M&A. GLA

Pussy more like. Cheers.

Rookie - found it - right click on the fecking graph, if I was(am) a dinosaur - I would have thought the bright light in the sky was Halley's comet. Watch out now I'm going to apply for a job as chief broker in Credit Suisse FFS. I found the data in IG Markets, what a deck head. Thx my boy, a brave new world, I was looking elsewhere , taking me away from my positions. Bloody hell some great tools here - no sleep tonight. Got the £4.04 etc with Graph. HNY

Cheers Rookie - appreciate your reply and I will take note and invest more time into this - as I find it very interesting. I spend too much time on forecasts and company accounts and underplay the massive volatility and vagaries of the market. Thx BH Good luck.

No probs Rookie, my TA is poor, I'm interested in your MA analysis of 3.95 then 4.07 do you recommend any suitable software or all are home grown? I know you have years of experience. Cheers.

Exxon & Chevron tomorrow - then BP 1st Nov before HBR. Should be a solid flow of good Oil news. GLA

Shell - Impact of gas Q3 - HBR would have had the first full Qtr of Tolmount unhedged gas at full prod'n - massive profits.
The FTSE 100 group reported profits of $9.5bn (£8.2bn) in the third quarter, more than double the same period last year and the second-highest figures on record.
The performance was driven by a sustained spike in wholesale gas prices,

Have they liquidised those sterling hedges which gave rise to the $360m FX gain H1 - Sterling $1.18 - now when Sterling dropped to $1.10 and hedges unwound. I'm tired of profit oppos GLA . HNT

Our gross margins - greater than' s Apple FFS and we are at 1.5x EPS Klazy with sustained output.

VFM - Value for Money on Capital employed - - what's the krap when the studios are making a 27% ROCE - bollecks talk like ITV is losing money FFS. Ditch the shorts and grow up FFS Go sloth another share.

I Kept a few posts from one of my respected posters Soder over the last many months, his knowledge outstrips mine and I hope he won't mind me quoting him, to bolster Q3 forecasts- Quotes

Let’s put it this way…even with a decent proportion of hedged output…at 200p a therm on the unhedged portion that’s being sold for an equivalent barrels of oil equivalent price of 236$$$. Our opex per bbl is $16. So when selling unhedged gas we are making over $200 a bbl equivalent per bbl.
That’s never happened in history. The unhedged minority production is making more money than the hedged portion.
• RE: Gas price27 Jul 2022 09:52
• 490p = $4.48 per therm
Therms to boe is 4.48 / 0.0172414
= $271 bbl of oil equivalent
The reserve based lending facility has essentially been refinanced/redetermined with minimum hedging requirements now falling by 10 percent of production to 40 percent in year 1 and 30 percent in year 2.

This will allow us to be a bit more gung-ho on hedging, or rather lack of it over next few years.
But, given balance street strength we should also be able to secure lines with banks and other parties to put some hedges on. I for one would not be averse to hedging gas and oil at current prices for next year.
RE: HBR - Outstanding H1 Update25 Aug 2022 07:25
I mean seriously. Wake the **** up mr market.
This is free money at these prices. Like truly you n 20 years investing I have not seen such a freebie. The fundamentals are so strong that where is your downside over the next 12 months? This should double and how many times can you say that about a large cap stock. You can’t!!!! It’s literally a free money party.
All aboard.
I totally concur with those statements made in July & Aug 22 - we are now at £3.80ish when our unhedged gas was making +$200 Gross margin FFS. Q3 will be the best quarter ever in the history of HBR so far. This will improve as hedges fall away and we grow our baseline production through M&A. When you look at M&A - current EV's are NOT expensive - they are highly discounted to FCF. GLA - Soder - hope you didn't mind quoting you - you state it better than me and have more extensive O&G experience. Cheers.

5 days before H1 SP was £3.85, upto £4.30 day before RNS, then straight to £5, not missing that move, added big today - Sunak bonus not in the SP we are below Aug with less shares and probably +$6-700m additional profit and fcf. Huge discount going forward. UK 10 YR normalised, downside risk minimised.

HBR repaid Shell STL and added liquidity to balance their O&G trading needs. With +$2bn free cash Q2-3 - they must have exploited the O&G markets last 4 months from free cash and made a bomb. HBR are stronger now to deal with the wild fluctuations of the commodity cycle - this is not reflected in their EV. GLA - Also Quick Comparison 31/12 to now
FTSE 100-- Now 6950 ish was 7384 -5.6%
SP was £3.45 now £3.72 +7.8%
POO was $70 now $93 +32.8%
Gas was 163p now 185p +13.4%
SHARES IN ISSUES WAS 925M NOW 863M --7%
DEBT debt WAS $2.3BN NOW niL nil -100% Major factor

Quick matrix suggests HBR should be £6 with hedges diminishing and new stronger position being taken care of. HBR is no longer at the mercy of hedging, it has the cash and resources to play the market as an O&G major producer and max the return NO FWCKER is mentioning this - read last report . Profits up and will climb 2023 & onwards. GLA

I thought according to the BB - every fecker was selling Jesus Fake news again FFS.