Member Info for BaysilHope

That answers any doubters as to HBR ambition to grow, I'm shocked by the scale and size of the target and establishes HBR intent. Such an acquisition would be a game changer, it would more than replenish reserves, move the production focus away from the UK , EPL and be greener. They have done the maths and could fund a very substantial target, I wonder if they have bought time to recalibrate and then revisit.

I was surprised by the lack of response on the BB but there again everyone's heavily exposed short. News like this will be out, not IF but when and that changes every dynamic of this share.

Cont'd Shell's annual report shows it held stakes in 21 Norwegian oil and gas production licences at the end of 2021, including a 17.8% stake in Ormen Lange, a 45% stake in the Knarr field and 8.1% of the Troll oilfield.
It produced around 13,400 barrels of oil per day (bpd) and 490 million standard cubic feet per day (scf/d) in Norway in 2021, around 7% of the company's total gas production.

that's pretty big - so ambition is there for the right deal

Shell energy transition prompted talks to sell Norway business

Shell (SHEL.L) held talks with Harbour Energy (HBR.L) to sell its Norwegian oil and gas fields last year but could not reach a deal due to gas price volatility and uncertainty over the long-term outlook, three company sources told Reuters.
London-based Shell has said it will focus its oil and gas operations in nine basins around the world, triggering a growing internal competition among assets as it aims to gradually reduce its oil and gas output and grow renewables and low-carbon operations to cut its greenhouse gas emissions.
Talks with Harbour Energy, the largest British North Sea producer, reached an advanced stage towards the end of 2022, the sources said, just as Norway cemented its position as Europe's top natural gas supplier after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Negotiations with Harbour Energy included Shell's assets in Norway and its small-scale operations in Italy and several ageing assets in the British North Sea, the sources said.

The news article lacks true distinct definition IMO - between the 'Total Project profile' and HBR's 50% stake! The $3.3bn Tuna development must surely be the 'Total' project cost, it then says HBRs gross revenue $773m, is that HBR's share or total project return? No doubt there will be clarification at the TU next week. very loose use of terminology or lost in translation. HBR have a high project IRR criteria and they wouldn't prioritise low yielding projects at the expense of their 50% ers. GLA

China will recover very quickly, the Chinese Covid has no scary DNA traits, Western medicine will move in and huge Chinese pent up demand will convert to energy demand. I think taking Gas below Pre War prices is a ploy as Permanent supply is OFF market. Gas a tool here - short term before conditions get out of hand. Winter hasn't started yet in Europe FFS. Will add.

China HAS wrong footed traders - hence POO held down, any China recovery will DWARF European downturn and mild US recession for Oil demand & POO. They are using the COVID Scare to hold oil to realign positions. New Year watch this move with Russian embargo. China's move is 3 months earlier than expected _ JEFFFFFFF 3 months earlier - MRAN vaccine will take hours to redesign. POO will head for $110 by March and obliterate the WT impact on HBR FFS.

This is not an aside - this is fact, China CAN@T go back, the genie has left the bottle. Chinese domestic demand for air travel is huge, so is the PENT UP demand after 3 years of restrictions. Don't be short girls FFS.

Great deal for MacQ - they get a reverse takeover of SQz effectively and free float - no IPO needed. Apart from tax losses - can't see £644m as a good deal. IMO DYOR> large dilution with MacQ holding all the cards. That could be a good thing longer term but at what price?

as Brits put the heating back on to battle winter freeze
The arrival of cold winter weather has sent wholesale gas prices sharply higher as Brits reach for the thermostat into some of the longest nights of the year.
On one industry measure, prices have seen a sixfold increase in six weeks. Numbers out today from the Office for National Statistics show that the 7-day rolling System Average Price of Gas spiked up to its highest since September, more than trebling in a month.
Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Did call it, OPEC fup allows US to **** all over Brent - how stupid are they ..

Strong US jobs report & wage inflation,

gets fecking boring mud-slinging - HBR sells all it can produce , this is a cash machine OPRC will cut next week and Winter gets worse from now on. Watch gas.

Two main reasons:
1. After the last 2m cut US pushed POO from $99 to $82 - so it didn't WORK stabilising POO - if they don't react same down pressure persists
2. OPEC will lose credibility as the conduit and dominant force controlling world POO (Now US Shale has conceded any material investment & growth plans) and concede POO to US speculators whim and bearish sentiment.

I think another 500-1m Boepd. GLA This SP will open up tmz, Sunday OPEC meeting will surprise.

Simples and Winter getting a grip this week. Roll on 5th Dec Russian ban.

Plus Winter and NO SPR release $120 I'd say and Nat gas surge - LNG shipments will fall behind usage end of Dec 22 with Beast from the East weather warning.. HNY

The fake news is the fecking Yanks- get $140 and feck em.

In 10 days time they will be begging KSA to lift output. No chance after dropping it like a brick on the news. feck the yanks i say.

Quote 'Prices slumped after it emerged that Opec+ - the cartel of 13 oil producing countries and 10 of its closest allies - is considering an output increase of 500,000 barrels ahead of the EU’s embargo of Russian oil, according to the Wall Street Journal. Quest que c'est - says it all really. Typical MM short term swing - mega volatility - will reverse month end,

2 weeks ago Brent circa $100 - obvious bear clear-out before winter and Russian crude ban and SPR stops. Brent hit $80 26th Sept and iImissed Enq 20p. So strip out Brent effect before analysing the WT impact.

Britain will be hit by 80mph gales, freezing temperatures and icy roads and rain from tomorrow
It comes as parts of the UK have been hit by snow today as temperatures plummeted, with near freezing temperatures said to be on the way.
Chance of a very cold snap’ in December, climate experts warn
If there are colder-than-usual temperatures before Christmas, that spells bad news for the EU’s energy crisis preparations.

Predictions - Oil $+110 31st dec Nat Gas will double- simples- not long now. Ans then to march 23

Our full year guidance for post-tax operating cash flow (before working capital impact) has increased to $2.5-3.0 billion (from more than $2 billion)

As we have stated previously, Neptune and its shareholders continue to explore strategic options for the business to support further development and growth, including M&A and the possibility of an IPO.

When forecasting lads, get the short plank out of the calculator-please. EPL is only up +10%, decomm Interest is offset 40% basic tax FFS. Neptune is showing earnings harbour will achieve in 2023-24 when hedges unwind. I'd be surprised if Tax is greater than 55%. At 280p thats equiv £2.60pre buybacks - or 13p old PMO when PE ratio is under 2. It makes sense to borrow cash and gobble up HBR - it will be paid back within 2 years. No brainer.