Member Info for BaysilHope

Funeral last month, my great friend, huge share enthusiast - would state SP up 0.1% this week - would state to the kids - Turkey for Christmas & not chicken. It's all a wake call/ GLA I know his son will read this. Paul would have loved the divi for a party.

Rookie - US trade off - smash POO, hunker down on inflation - long on tech (Check Fed rate rises threat thereof) - cheap trade 10:1 return given relative market size of both sectors until the Mkt fundamentals return. hence I said this is going South on US shorting POO big time, they threatened this last week. Nothing to do with HBR, poses great oppo IMO - OPEC will respond. Soon - while Chian is a Zombie state. Oil demand only going one way. Volatility = greater profit - as we all know and you do my boy.

BBB - Norway 77% is a misquote - From ONS - Read 50% imported - of which - The UK?imports around 50% of its gas from the international market and?most homes in England and Wales are heated by mains gas supply.?Gas is also used to fuel around a third of the UK's electricity generation, so rising gas prices will usually lead to rising electricity prices.
Norway is typically the UK's largest gas supplier. In 2021, the UK imported £14.5 billion of gas from Norway, which accounted for 77% of all gas imports (Figure 3). Other countries the UK imports gas from include Qatar, the United States and Russia. Almost half of the UK's gas exports in 2021 were to Ireland (47.2%), and the Netherlands was also a large export partner (28.2%)

No different to last week, just one step on. The Oil MM's will look to attack OPEC's defence of POO, with a modest cut. There is a real growing dislocation between the physical market and the virtual trading world. POO will be pushed down before Winter and other bullish macro moves. I think OPEC will make a market announcement next week outlining escalating major cuts if POO hits $80. The MM's have 6-8 weeks to play with, then Nature takes over and China will start to recover. Should coincide with the TU Q3. GLA IMO DYOR Best balanced Oiler out there - scale - balanced output Oil/Gas - multi projects with stella oppos and can withstand EPL. What's not to like! GLa

Thats the Credit entry, the Debit entry is the possible Nat gas cap - for the NS producers sell to UK and Earnings impact /!!! We'll see tmz GLA

Clued - yes Germany made a huge miscalculation, maybe coloured by a desire not to repeat the 27m Russians killed in WWII. Whatever, Norway have indicated they will consider a Gas price cap (Plus extending it to Russia) in order to reorganise energy pricing structures. Needless to say, this will take time - however it's better for Europe to act united against the Russian war machine than fight over division and individual national identities. There's more at stake than just energy, the European (Including UK ) is being stress tested increasingly applied by Putin, his last major card. He wants rioting, division etc etc to publicise the propaganda back home and create genuine misery throughout.

Let's hope the UK has the right policy mix to get the job done. Fingers crossed - we'll know tmz , just as we go Ex Div, great sign.

All at sea - 100% correct IMO - WT max £10bn given the configuration of Oil major's earning. I think there will be a trade-off for WT abolished and gas price cap. Norway said they would entertain this, at prices higher than last year. If the cap is set properly, win - win with sustainable profits. GLA

The European Union appears set for a new showdown with Russia over gas supplies.

The bloc has revealed plans for a price cap on Russian gas imports in retaliation for the war in Ukraine and measures to help member states cope with the energy squeeze.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen laid out five proposals on Wednesday, hours after Russia's leader threatened to turn off the taps to any Western nations moving to impose price caps on his country's energy.
She said Russia had become an "unreliable supplier" following state-run Gazprom's decision to turn off the taps on the major Nord Stream 1 pipeline indefinitely last week, adding that the EU's reliance on Russian gas had fallen significantly since the invasion and stocks were back 82% across the bloc.
The other measures however betrayed the perilous position the bloc continues to face ahead of winter.
They included, Ms von der Leyen said, a mandatory cut in electricity use across the EU to preserve power.
She also proposed a cap on the revenue of non-gas fuelled generators to re-channel their "unexpected profits" into
measures that support households and companies.
A windfall tax on fossil fuel companies was also on the cards, she said, along with aid for utility providers struggling under the weight of wholesale prices.
The president explained that the cap on wholesale prices from Russia was now possible after the bloc had eased its reliance on Russian energy.

Norway - Britain’s biggest gas supplier Norway willing to discuss price cap
Norway is willing to discuss potential long-term gas agreements and price caps in a move that could help to bring down sky-high energy prices in the UK.
Britain’s biggest supplier of gas, which has seen its exports surge as Europe cuts ties with Russia, is facing calls to do more to help ahead of a brutal winter that could lead to blackouts and recession in many countries.
Jonas Gahr Store, Norway’s Prime Minister, said: “I fully understand that Europe now has a profound debate about how energy markets work, how they can secure more affordable prices for citizens, families, industries, how this shortfall of gas after Putin’s aggression can be handled.”
He told the Financial Times: “Norway is not closing doors to any such discussion.” Any cap on the price of Norway’s gas could help to bring down household energy bills in Britain, offering further relief to families amid the cost-of-living crisis.
Some oil and gas executives outside Norway have argued that the wealthy Scandinavian nation should do more to help Europe ahead of a tough winter when many countries could face both recession and record energy prices.
Equinor and other companies are in discussion with customers about potential long-term contracts that could lock in a gas price lower than the present level but higher than that of a year ago, according to people familiar with the talks.
Asked whether Norway could agree to a voluntary price cap, the Norwegian prime minister said: “I am not closing the door to any ideas that can take Europe forward. It’s in Norway’s profound interest that we reduce instability, that we increase reliability for our allies and partners.

CNE IMO i sjust begging to be taken out. It has Net Cash of $630m or £500m, so cash is £1.70 per share FFS!!!!. If HBR offered £1bn cash, Net Acquisition cost would be £400m for +150b reserves and 36k locally priced gas and mkt Oil. get 9 NS licences and Mexico. Conforms to HBR plan to get another International producing platform. Low carbon etc etc.

The TLW merger is going sour and quote H1 - The Board continues to believe that the proposed merger with Tullow can deliver significant long-term
value for shareholders through creating a leading, Africa-focused energy company. The Board is also
mindful of the impact of external factors and market conditions and is, as always, assessing all options
to maximise value for shareholders. The company is exploring a number of expressions of interest
relating to alternative transactions, and is engaging with those parties expressing interest to evaluate
potential outcomes.”

HBR could pick this up for 6weeks cashflow and gain all that experience. I know they have had two dusters but Mexico Block 7 drilling starts Q4. NO Brainer IMO DYOR - does not derail any other plans. Plus Eqypt assets were owned by Shell, maybe more a foot. Only a guess.

There we go and - Spain’s Repsol has started drilling the much-anticipated Rencong-1X wildcat in the frontier deepwaters of Indonesia’s North Sumatra basin in the Andaman III Block.
According to Aceh upstream authority BPMA in its release last week, the drilling started on 18 July, which is being carried out by the Capella drillship, and will take 66 days to complete at the water depth of 1,100 meters.
Significantly, the block is adjacent to Andaman II block, where operator Harbour Energy discovered gas and liquids earlier this month using the same drillship at its play opening Timpan-1 exploration well. The region, which is largely undrilled, offers the potential for big gas discoveries. Indeed, if successful, the wildcat could help unlock the deeper areas of basin. The planned Rencong-1X well is located 40-45 km from shore in waters about 1,100 m deep.

Somebody knows something me thinks.

Brilliant, reduces Divi cost to HBR by 44m shares, increasing further EPS keep it coming +$100m to come.

Called that - last night. HNY

Saudi Arabia’s signal from two weeks ago that OPEC+ could decide to cut production at any time, in any form, managed to lift Brent oil prices to above $100 per barrel for around a week.

But this week, fresh lockdowns in China, intensified fears of recession, and guidance that the Fed will continue with the large key rate hikes sent oil prices tumbling to the low $90s.

While OPEC insists that oil demand is robust and will be so through the end of the year, data suggests that demand in the world’s top oil importer, China, has been weak this summer amid COVID lockdowns and slowing factory activity.

Overall Asian crude imports are estimated to have slowed in August from July, with imports in India, the world’s third-largest crude importer, also down month on month, according to Refinitiv Oil Research data cited by Reuters’ Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist Clyde Russell.

OPEC+ is meeting on September 5 for its regular monthly gathering to assess market conditions and decide how to proceed with the pact which currently expires in December this year. The group, in theory, rolled back by the end of August all the massive cuts from May 2020, but it’s estimated to be 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) below the collective target.

Now the million-dollar question is: Will there be new cuts? And will cuts help support what looks like a softening physical crude market?

If OPEC don't stand up Hedge funds will smash POO with China situation. We will soon see. I think KSA are too smart. GLA

Morgan22 & NSS - KSA won't be stupid - especially with the Iran situation, which the US are prostituting themselves to get done. So - IMO a firm hand is needed from OPEC - IMO DYOR and I think the World will be happy with $90-95 POO before China recovers and winter. I think IMO OPEC need to remind the world they are alive - post Russia and 20 months of unwinding production cuts. They have painted themselves into a corner - and that's what NYSE are testing. With the Russia Ukraine war - OPEC have a greater seat at the energy table and will Max it. GLA

Typical i=of the US raise POO start and then challenge OPEC - Quote:
Oil Jumps 4% on OPEC+ Cuts Mantra
The grand plan among OPEC+’s less significant members is that cuts be announced at next week’s meeting and that the Saudis and Emirates carry those reductions — as has been the norm in the alliance for most of the past two years.
“It’s the same story each time,” said John Kilduff, partner at New York energy hedge fund Again Capital. “Crude prices drop $20 or more a barrel and these OPEC+ guys will be yelling cut, cut, when they’re producing well below quota. They’ll make whatever noise they can between now and the next week to try and get the market up as much as possible.”
A week earlier, OPEC+’s de facto chief Saudi Arabia said the group could cut production “anytime,” after its secretary-general Haitham Al Ghais of Kuwait hinted that output restraint could be an option for bringing the market back into balance.
“Balance” is OPEC+’s catchphrase for production cuts, a situation it deems necessary whenever oil prices are at the risk of a continuous decline.

IMO DYOR - If OPEC don't react to US dumping 1mbpd into a recessive market, they will lose all credibility - and POO could fall a further $10 due to US short selling - before China wakes up and Winter. So the -$13 drop in POO this week cannot go unanswered IMO. KSA is now Defacto leader given Russia's war situation. MBS loves an oppo to be world leader at something. My bet is on Monday Liz t will be Prime Minister, OPEC will cut Oil Production - and Arsenal v Man Utd will be a 2-2 draw. Got £90 on the bet FFS. OPEC - mothing to lose, Just F up the yanks- they jack off on recession and their economy is booming!!!! GLA - I did get this right Feb 20 when Russia didn't cut and set POO below $10 - I feel this in my water. US President every 4 years MBS - KSA a lifetime as long he survives. Will outlive Putin - needs to head the herd. HNY

IMO - the POO price action this week is designed to flush out OPEC - whether they have the cohognies to cut output. With US still dumping SPR into the market at 1mbpd - and US market blaming demand FFS. If I was MBS I would impose a modest cut and feck Biden up and have a laugh around a large Hookah - not hooker. GLA Waiting for the divi, increasing everyday as Sterling collapses. $1.10 by Xmas.

Well World cup sold out, ITVX will be a must, limited downside and high yield, with studio income in US$ at parity. GLA

Rookie 1 - With Hindsight HBR were set to fail - after the Stella climb from £3.50 to £5.38:- MASSIVE SHORT ATTACK +10% SOL - WHICH WAS USED - WELL ..................... Last FTSE 100 inclusion

1. EIG 37% Overhang
2. Windfall tax - EPL
3. HBR no post merger proofed accounts - Q1 was a TU guide.
4. Nat gas shock & Tolmount unhedged output not factored in.
5. Bogus FTSE 100 call to short
6. SOL increasing +10%

why different - just unwind main points plus
1. Share buy backs $300m
2. $200m divis
3. Gas is the Key asset next 2 years
4. SOL decreasing - less shorting.
5. FX Sterling v US

Anyway - need divi and take some profit post record date . GLA

HBR should now stabilise and slowly climb until next breakthrough.

GLA

Great to see a solid transaction in HBR shares 39.5m ish purchased to date. mega happy. More to come.