Member Info for BasilAlderman

Yes and when those results are announced we could repeat what happened at UPL and POS at the end of last year. They both climbed over x 10 on positive sentiment. Therefore 13.5p a share, if the resource is as massive as we now expect, would not be unreasonable as a JV or Takeover stampede would be likely from the major Helium players. i.e. A £700 Million MCAP would be cheap for a worldwide helium discovery of this magnitude. Don't forget that HE1 have also said in its recent RNS of July 1st, 2024, that "helium concentrations that were brought to surface could be slightly higher than previously thought". In summary, this could be a massive few months for HE1 and its investors.

The UK Stroke Association figures are:

1. A stroke strikes every five minutes in the UK

2. 100,000 people in the UK have strokes each year

That's a lot of potential tests for GDR's CYP2C19 ID stroke kit in the UK alone and then you add the rest of the world at 77 million strokes per year and you see the true potential of GDR for patients (and investors).

PWC's latest dealmaker report on our sector makes for interesting reading:

1. Dealmakers in pharmaceuticals and life sciences and in healthcare services are eager to get deals done in 2024.

2. Competition for truly innovative assets remains intense.

Can anyone think of a company that has truly innovative assets in our sector?! Oh Yes, GDR's MT-RNR1 hearing kit and CYP2C19 ID stroke kit.

3. Large pharmaceutical companies will continue to pursue biotech targets and products that can offset revenue declines from lost exclusivity in the coming years

4. Companies seeking opportunities to digitalise through implementation of analytics technology, digital direct-to-consumer therapeutics offerings, smart health devices and other software innovations will continue to acquire or partner with data and analytics and other technology companies that can deliver these digital solutions.

https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/services/deals/trends/health-industries.html

Which major pharma isn't going to want to buy GDR once the CYP2C19-ID test is given the green light by NICE? The number of strokes globally is growing each year and big pharma will want a piece of the action:

1. 1 in 4 adults over the age of 25 will have a stroke in their lifetime.

2. Over 12 million people worldwide will have their first stroke this year

3. 6.5 million will die as a result of a stroke this year.

4. Over 77 million people in the world have experienced an ischaemic stroke in the last year. This number is growing year on year.

"The Genedrive® CYP2C19-ID test should be used as the test of choice for point-of-care strategies" - NICE draft. That's the wording! In full below:

"The UK's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence ("NICE") has recommended in draft guidance that CYP2C19 genotyping should be used to guide clopidogrel use after Ischaemic Stroke ("IS") or Transient Ischaemic Attack ("TIA"), and that the Genedrive® CYP2C19-ID test should be used as the test of choice for point-of-care strategies".

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/genedrive/news/rns_widget/story/x8ygvjw

Don't mislead! The actual wording, dated as recently as 27th June and published on GDR's Investor Relations portal, is:

"The UK's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence ("NICE") has recommended in draft guidance that CYP2C19

genotyping should be used to guide clopidogrel use after Ischaemic Stroke ("IS") or Transient Ischaemic Attack ("TIA"), and that the Genedrive® CYP2C19-ID test should be used as the test of choice for point-of-care strategies".

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/genedrive/news/rns_widget/story/x8ygvjw

https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-dg10054/documents

A 6p target is very low indeed as GDR's CYP2C19 ID stroke Kit targets the most common type of stroke. i.e. Once NICE guidance is confirmed the brakes will come off the share price moving forwards. Why? Read below:

"The UK's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence ("NICE") has recommended in draft guidance that CYP2C19

genotyping should be used to guide clopidogrel use after Ischaemic Stroke ("IS") or Transient Ischaemic Attack ("TIA"), and that the Genedrive® CYP2C19-ID test should be used as the test of choice for point-of-care strategies".

Globally 77 million people have ischaemic strokes on an annual basis. This is a massive target for GDR to target. Even a small percentage of 77 Million would be worth tens of millions to GDR each year. Therefore your 6p target should be more like 60p!

Yes but bearing in mind Ian Gilham, Chair of Genedrive, has a track record of selling his businesses for hundreds of millions of pounds (£250 Million for Axis-Shield & £300 Million for Horizon Discovery) these daily rises could go on for months on the back of FDA, Specialised Commissioning, NICE approval, sales updates etc.

When momentum kicks in a share price can have an upwards trajectory for months. e.g. There are many examples of AIM plcs in our sector that have seen rises carry on for over a year. NCYT 12p to 1200p over 12 months. SAR 10p to 450p in 12 months. AVCT 20p to 250p in 12 months. SNG 8p to 250p in 12 months and yes even GDR going from 8p to 130p in 12 months a while back.

These long-term climbers do happen, especially in our sector. We could see 20p here quite quickly in 2024 and if Ian Gilham is aiming to repeat another £250 Million+ sale then 45p a share (x 10 of the current price) is looking a distinct possibility. Plus, we have seen many small companies in our industry bought for over £1 Billion by a bigger player, so 150p a share would not be out of the question if a major pharma came in with an offer. Don't rule any of this out as our Chairman has achieved significant sale prices before of £250 Million and £300 Million respectively.

This is good tax planning by Sarah Cope. If she was expecting to make a CGT loss she would have kept it in a non ISA Tax wrapper to claim the losses. Think about it. She clearly thinks the gains are going to be big and does not want to be taxed, hence she's popped her 1,495,857 shares in to her ISA. That is another positive signal that the directors are expecting big things soon.

We could all be blindsided by an extra and very significant RNS soon regarding "Specialised Commissioning".

1. GDR's CEO James Cheek was waxing lyrical about this in his presentation in November.

2. If GDR can pull "Specialised Commissioning" out of the bag for the MT-RNR1 ID Kit this could be a tipping point moment for the company and its share price.

3. Back in November in the investor presentation James Cheek stated that he had "been speaking to key people, such as Sue Hill and Alex McLoughlin", and he felt that there was "an acceptance sooner rather than later" that 'Specialised Commissioning' would occur.

Lets hope he can confirm Specialist Commissioning soon for the MT-RNR1 ID Kit. It would be a game changer.

Yes, 100% agree on a buy out of GDR. However, it will be in the hundreds of pence a share and by a major player. Ian Gilham, Chair of Genedrive, has a track record of selling his businesses for hundreds of millions. i.e. £250 Million for Axis-Shield & £300 Million for Horizon Discovery. That is what is going to happen with GDR in due course. We just need to wait for full NICE and FDA approval and a big pharmaceutical will buy out GDR.

You do realise that Dr Ian Gilham, Chair of Genedrive, has a track record of selling his businesses for hundreds of millions? £250 Million for Axis-Shield & £300 Million for Horizon Discovery. This is what is going to happen here in due course. GDR operates in a takeover hungry sector. e.g. the takeover of Amolyt Pharma by AZ was completed today for $1.05 billion in cash, of which $800 million was an upfront payment. Yes, $800 Million upfront! Once the hearing and stroke kits have full NICE and FDA approval a major global pharma will come in and take over GDR. It's what happens in our sector. GDR's Chairman has a track record of achieving significant sale prices for his business in the hundreds of millions.

Yes & 15p a share is only X 10 from the Open Offer / REX. So, wake me up then and I might sell a few but as this has the potential to be a 100p+ share I'm in no hurry. GDR's MT-RNR1 and CYP2C19-ID kits have long term mega multi-bag potential for the patient investor. FDA news today is excellent. Short term we could see at least 20p a share here in 2024. Watch this space!

FDA support normally produces a very positive share price reaction. For example:

1. Amarin gained over 300% on FDA news

2. RENX rose from 75p - 145p with FDA news

3. Reata tripled in 1 day after its FDA news

A X 10 from the Open Offer / REX is 15p. So, wake me up then and I might sell a few but as this has the potential to be a 100p+ share I'm in no hurry. GDR's MT-RNR1 and CYP2C19-ID kits have long term mega multi-bag potential for the patient investor. Short term we could see at least 20p a share here in 2024.

Great post by Legalwolf about the timings involved and managing expectations. Well said. The mega gains will come with a positive EWT and then a JV. Both have to be RNS'd and it won't happen via Investor Meet. Having said that there's still time pre Noon for an official regulatory update!

Yes, Air Liquide ($102 Billion Mcap) look an interesting fit. Plus Linde (209 Billion Mcap), Exxon (503 Billion Mcap) etc are all multi billion businesses and could easily takeover HE1 for £1 Billion+ or they could pen a mega JV/MOU with our company for our Helium resources. A big deal could very well be in the pipeline on the back of a positive EWT. The big players won't hang around long. FOMO in corporate boardrooms of missing a deal is a big thing, especially in this sector.

Don't rule out Exxon ($503 Billion Mcap today) in addition to Air Liquide (102 Billion Mcap today). Both could be in the frame for a JV / MOU with HE1 for the helium discovery at the Itumbula West-1 well . All the major players are going to be fully up to speed regarding HE1's statement that helium is flowing to the surface in "such significant concentrations" and that this "has confirmed a globally unique helium producing province". HE1 is big news in our industry and there won't be many CEO's in this space unaware of the helium levels that have been found at Itumbula. Just watch this share price rocket when we get JV or M&A news. e.g. GGP went from below 0.60p a share to over 30p a share.

Yes a JV or trade sale deal with Air Liquide (MCAP $102 BILLION) or ANother Multi Billion player will see the HE1 share price rocket. This could be like ARB and we all saw what happened with that share. i.e. 3p to 300p+

Yes, an Aim listed company actually delivering on its promises with natural growth. Well done ABDX. £6 Million revenue is a big climb from last year and even more impressive if you look back 24 months. You can only conclude that ABDX is very undervalued.