Member Info for BasilAlderman

Yes, $102 Billion MCAP Air Liquide speculation relating to an HE1 JV deal is VERY interesting!

1. A GGP style x 65 rocket could happen with a deal with a multi billion operator such as Air Liquide.

2. GGP's JV with Newcrest saw the SP rise from under 3p to over 35p.

3. Those invested since the 0.55 days saw a x 65 increase in their holding.

4. Mega multi-bags can and do happen. HE1 could be next with the EWT and then a follow on JV or trade sale.

5. As we have seen with GGP it's entirely feasible. Bring on Air Liquide or ANother Multi Billion player for a JV and the share price is going to the moon!

It looks like there could be an RNS inbound as Investor Meet normally follows news, not always but in many cases. It's going to be interesting to see what Lorna Blaisse and Graham Jacobs have to say on Wednesday 10th July at 12pm, that is for sure.

2p could happen today but don't write off 2.5p - 3p by close of play if significant momentum kicks in. We've seen big daily and weekly rises with HE1 in the past. It's going to be an interesting week!

You make a very interesting point about where this share price will go when we get a big RNS from HE1. Having been invested in GGP when they signed their JV agreement with Newcrest I can vouch for the mega rises that do happen with similar sized small mcap AIM plcs. GGP rose from under 3p to over 35p. The really lucky ones were those invested in GGP since the 0.55 days who saw a x 65 increase in their holding. In a nutshell, mega multi-bags can and do happen. HE1 could be next with the EWT and then a follow on JV or trade sale. A X 65 GGP mega gain for HE1 would be nice and as we have seen with GGP it's entirely feasible.

Yes, LegalWolf, as you say mega gains do happen:

BOTB multibagged over x 71,

GGP multibagged over x 63,

EUA multibagged over x 36,

VCP multibagged over x 63,

ESG multibagged over x 41,

NCYT multibagged over x 100,

SNG multibagged over x 100,

SAR multibagged over x 30,

TPST multibagged over x 39

PYC multibagged x 34

ARB multibagged over x 100

You would have to conclude that if they can do it then so can HE1 on the back of a positive EWT to, say, 3p+ and then much much higher if and when we get a JV or M&A announcement.

"Mega Multi-Bags" do happen, as the above companies highlight.

Yes, 3p soon in the run up to EWT and much higher thereafter on a positive outcome. Remember, that commercial production typically requires helium concentrations between 0.04-0.35%. HE1 is reporting that it is looking at helium concentrations up to 4.7% at the Itumbula West-1 well and according to the latest RNS this could be even higher than 4.7%. In anycase this is way way way above 0.04-0.35%. We also have been briefed via RNS in November last year of the helium seep measuring up to 10.4%. Hence why HE1 is "potentially a world-class helium source". Remember too that ours is pure helium without hydrocarbons. I'm really looking forward to the EWT and then the follow up partnership announcements in due course when we become the next GGP, RKH, ARB, NCYT Mega Multi-Bagger.

A X 10 would only be a £300 Million approx MCAP. That is peanuts!

1. A X 10 from here in the short term is very possible in this sector on the back of a positive EWT.

2. A JV would most likely follow with a positive EWT and then you are looking at much more than a X 10 gain. RKH and GGP both became Billion MCAP companies for a while on the back of their good news.

3. It could all happen quite quickly if the EWT is as positive as many expect. The RNS today hints at a bigger find than 4.7% helium. That would create mega excitement if and when that is officially confirmed. Watch this space.

4. A £300 Million MCAP would also make HE1 very attractive for M&A activity from a major player on the back of good EWT news.

Yes, that's what I'm expecting soon. Check out Confo Therapeutics. They were paid an up-front payment of $40 million last year for a licensing deal with Eli Lilly for its lead asset, CFTX-1554, which is in P1 development for neuropathic pain. Plus last year AZ entered in to an agreement with KYM Biosciences for its P1 clinical candidate CMG901. AZ paid an upfront payment of $63m and agreed additional milestone development and sales-related payments of up to $1.1bn.

AZ also paid $185 Million to Eccogene - upfront in cash - 5 months ago following encouraging preliminary results from Eccogene's P1 trial of ECC5004. The deal was structured in such a way that Eccogene could also receive up to an additional $1.825bn in future clinical, regulatory, and commercial milestones and tiered royalties.

Ofcourse, a company such as AZ could also make a takeover approach for SAR now that the SDC-1801 results have been unveiled. e.g. TeneoTwo was acquired 18 months ago by AZ for its P1 clinical-stage T-cell engager TNB-486. AZ paid $100m cash up front for TeneoTwo plus R&D-related milestone payments of up to $805m and additional contingent commercial-related milestone payments of up to $360m. i.e. A total of up to $1.265 billion.

There is so much M&A activity these days with phase 1 candidates, both in on-licencing and takeover transactions. Sareum could very well be next with this positive SDC-1801 news today.

You only have to see what happened to a similar bombed out share price with Tempest Therapeutics to see what’s possible. They had dropped to an all-time low (just like SAR) and then positive data was revealed that saw the share price surge by x 39 in 1 week last September. Yes, a 3,900% rise in 1 week!

CEO's wife sells 2 Million shares for £1.5 Million approx: Helen Forrester, wife of Robert Forrester CEO of the Company, has sold 2 million shares in the Company in two tranches of 1 million shares each this week for 77.55 pence and 74.00 pence. That's a big £1.5 Million approx slice to be selling off and reduces the CEO's holding to 1.63%.

Yes, that was an amazing 4 days for PYC. 1p to 30p+ in 4 trading days. I sold my PYC ISA holding back then for a big win but have held in my SIPP hoping for a repeat! With the right kind of news PYC does tend to have a good spike or two. I like what the new CEO is saying about growing the business. The contracts are getting bigger and if he can pull off a few more of these out of the bag this financial year the share price should increase accordingly. I have 4p as an initial target for 2024. It won't take much to get this going again. We won't see another x 30 in 4 days but a gradual climb could happen if positive contract news becomes more frequent. Sentiment will then spur the price northwards. The current PYC MCAP and SP are tiny. i.e. Lots of scope for a big gain here.

Yes and there's nothing precluding our Chair or CEO having a chat with Pascal Soriot at AZ, Emma Walmsley at GSK, Paul Hudson at Sanofi, Albert Bourla at Pfizer etc with the message that SDC1801 P1a data is coming out soon and would they be interested in seeing the topline results. "Here's the NDA. Please sign here etc". This is pretty standard stuff in business.

Yes, and the share price went up every day in a row, almost, from 70p to 450p+ in 5 months from March to August'21. That sustained rise could be on the cards again if we get positive P1a data, a move to P2 and a licencing deal within weeks of each other. I don't buy the line that the share price will fall if by the end of Q2 no data is released. Why would anyone sell now when we are on the cusp of possibly transformative company / shareholder news? It's very much onwards and upwards from here.

Yes and fingers crossed for all SAR investors. We are entering the most exciting period in the company's history. I am particularly buoyed by the fact that in the month's pre-and post the UKRI data for SDC-1801 being released in July 2021 the SAR share price climbed dramatically. This is the very same candidate that we are about to hear P1a results about. It certainly feels, to this seasoned SAR shareholder, that history is about to repeat itself. Hopefully, Tim and John's moment to shine on the global pharma stage is nearly here. Wishing everyone invested in SAR the best of luck over the coming days and weeks.

As the clock ticks down to the release of the much awaited - and potentially transformational - P1a trial data it's worth pointing out to the newbies that:

1. J&J's Stelara treats adults and children 6 years and older with moderate to severe psoriasis and has annual sales of over $10 Billion. Yes, $10 billion! This is the market SDC1801 is targeting.

2. Stelara's patent is about to expire, creating a "patent cliff" opportunity for a rival, such as SDC-1801. Will J&J licence SDC-1801 or buy Sareum? See https://www.pharmavoice.com/news/jnj-earnings-2023-full-year-stelara-patent-cliff/705396/

3. SAR has already had one amazing x 45 rise from 0.2p to 9p (10p to 450p+ post consolidation price) between 2020 and 2021 on the back of exceptional data from the very same SDC-1801 candidate.

4. It was, perhaps, a false start but the rise was based on its lead candidate SDC-1801, the very same one that is in clinical trials in Oz. It is primed to lift off again now because SDC-1801 data is about to be unveiled.

5. You only have to see what happened to a similar bombed out share price with Tempest Therapeutics to see what’s possible. They had dropped to an all-time low (just like Sareum) and then positive data was revealed that saw the share price surge by x 39 in 1 week last September. Yes, a 3,900% rise in 1 week!

6. Most of us will also know that a while back PYC went from 1p to 30p in 4 days.

7. NCYT went rapidly from 12p to 1200p.

8. Axsome Therapeutics climbed x 54 in one year and is up overall since 2018 by 2,635%.

9. If the data is positive it will start the firing gun for a P2 trial & for big pharma to do a licencing deal. At that stage our share price will then rocket.

Surely, we should be looking at the bigger picture here and what big pharma would and could be prepared to pay for a P1a trial candidate, such as SDC-1801, with positive data:

For example, Confo Therapeutics was paid an up-front payment of $40 million last year for a licensing deal with Eli Lilly for its lead asset, CFTX-1554, which is in P1 development for neuropathic pain.

* Last year AZ entered in to an agreement with KYM Biosciences for its P1 clinical candidate CMG901. AZ paid an upfront payment of $63m and agreed additional milestone development and sales-related payments of up to $1.1bn.

* AZ also paid $185 Million to Eccogene - upfront in cash - 5 months ago following encouraging preliminary results from Eccogene's P1 trial of ECC5004. The deal was structured in such a way that Eccogene could also receive up to an additional $1.825bn in future clinical, regulatory, and commercial milestones and tiered royalties.

Ofcourse, AZ could also make a takeover approach for SAR if the SDC-1801 if the preliminary results are good. e.g. TeneoTwo was acquired 18 months ago by AZ for its P1 clinical-stage T-cell engager TNB-486. AZ paid $100m cash up front for TeneoTwo plus R&D-related milestone payments of up to $805m and additional contingent commercial-related milestone payments of up to $360m. i.e. A total of up to $1.265 billion.

There is so much M&A activity these days with phase 1 candidates, both in on-licencing and takeover transactions. Sareum could be next and we might not have to wait very much longer to find out!

There are in fact plenty of examples of share prices rising substantially on good data / commercial news. Tempest surged over x 39 (3,973%) in 2 days in October last year on the back of good data. Amarin Corp gained over 300%, Reata soared 178%, Madrigal Pharmaceutical's share price went up over 400% and Kala shares rocketed 266% on the back of positive regulatory trial data sign offs. If you also cast your mind back to PYC, that share went from 1p to 33p in 5 days on positive data / commercial news. This could be replicated with the SAR share price in the coming days and weeks.

Surfie, quite the opposite in fact. The HNWI who invested £900,000 on June 1st 2021 and a further £1.47 Million 2 weeks later (see the RNS' confirming it was the same individual) was buying the SAR shares at the equivalent of 140p (2.8p then) and 245p (4.9p then) with an average of let us say 190p. If they sold at the top at 450p+ they will have more than doubled their £2.3 Million investment to £4.6 Million. They might have sold all or some of their holdings. There were some very big trades going through in 2021 for months. Far from being unable to call on the HNWI's again Stephen Parker, Tim Mitchell and Michael Owen could quite easily be in a position to promise the same gains again by buying in on the back of positive P1a data. It's happened before. Why not again? If they pull off a HNWI investment at the same time as the data is announced or confirm they are in talks with a major player for a licencing partnership this will see their share price soar.

Yes, this is exactly what happened when the share price surged 3 years ago with High Net Worth Individuals buying in to Sareum at a premium or at approximately the then current share price. It did wonders for the share price, as we know. Let's hope that Stephen Parker, Tim Mitchell and Michael Owen (in particular) are working the phones behind the scenes to their contacts. An RNS, as you say, with an undertaking from serious wealthy investors to invest in a P2 trial straight away would re-create the 2021 share price magic here without a doubt. History could be about to repeat itself as July 1st is fast approaching!

The Sound Energy deal just announced of up to US$45.2 million for a partial sale is huge for a company with such a small Mcap. Monday / next week should be interesting. This is surely going to soar. Wasn’t it 70p once? This looks a big deal for SOU.