Member Info for Barrieprov

Thanks Boyobach I find your charts very informative and your argument sounds very rational in the midst of irrationality

Think I’m going to hold my nerve and take a dip in at 890-900 as not only FOMO but also the feeling that one day a reduced average will serve me well as I’m not a trader but now in for the long haul

Someone on this board is averaging in at 950 which I think is frankly amazing unless of course the shares hit 500. ;-)

Thanks Winsome I recall the expression “don’t catch a falling knife” and agree there are no fundamentals at present to support buying other than yield and the conviction Shell wouldn’t need to cut divi again

Only problem is of course no sooner the headwinds have abated the shares will rocket so it’s probably a case of working out a comfortable average to get down to and then wait and see

I’ll see what 900 does to my WACC but maybe pause until I’ve read more about what’s driving sentiment

Brent futures down
Trying to get hold of FT today to read analysis
Shares looking oversold but im getting the jitters as for me I’m building a large position that’s a patchwork quilt of prices
Might hold out for 900
Thoughts anyone? Some posts I’ve seen advise waiting to buy until price starts rising

Marfthew I’d be very pleased to be in anywhere near March low which was I believe 890 so looking at 900-925

Nope but I’ve been reading some of the massive quantity of posts there which proved to be salutary

A lot of hubris calling 20p share price that’s now 10p makes me more aware of how difficult it is to call SP and just how risky these shares can be if I needed reminding

I’m happily holding my small stake in NSF that’s still 30% out of the money GLA

Wow KthankS you sound like an old school Warren Buffet patient investor

I love £ cost averaging and am applying that to RDSB buying 250 share blocks so I’m a bit player compared to many here, the latest at 1023 missed so the low by some distance

Good luck to you I really enjoyed reading your post which isn’t something I often experience on BB but this one is better than any, maybe due to the fact it’s a major share

http://modernfarmer.com/2016/03/carbon-farming/

Interesting article

I think global economies need to find a way to value biodiversity and invest in initiatives to tackle climate change making it worthwhile for poorer countries like Brazil not to burn the rainforest but the simplest starting point is to remove populist climate change deniers like Bolsonaro and Trump

Nice move today up 40 now

Marfthew nice trade RDSB up 21 at 987
I got in too early and missed 950 but am on target to average down at £12 so hoping to be in the money someday soon

Or PFG is being seen as a “bank“

The sector is being hit by impairment worries due to resurgence of virus cases maybe

Thanks Boyobach

Some very useful and constructive comments on this BB really has a professional feel to it compared to some (albeit penny share) ones I’ve visited lately

Will be keeping my eye on SP current in 950 range

The price short term is probably more likely to respond to worries about second wave which is starting to manifest

The best advice someone recently posted was probably to stop buying on the way down and start buying on the way up

Only problem is I can’t tell the difference!

Until there is some likelihood off a vaccine or therapeutic drug for Covid I think we’ll continue to ride a rollercoaster

RDSB shares have lost 5/8 of their value since their peak last year 994/2647

That doesn’t make them good value but it’s quite a drop so hopefully when some normality returns there will be a level of recovery to reward investors at this level As always GLA DYOR

That’s good advice Boyobach Thanks
I don’t do technical analysis but have heard watching shares crossing various day moving averages is a good way to look at things so buy on the move above rather than the fall below
Fortunately I’m not taking big blocks but trying to pound cost average 250 shares at a time to end up holding 1500-2500 shares depending on how I feel about holding. I think many on this BB are much bigger and more experienced fish!

Last topped up at 1022.7555 so as usual jumped in too early but am contemplating a further round ahead of Dec OPEC meeting or Q3 trading update depending on SP

Looking to push average down towards £12 so that if I’m ever “in the money” I’ll hopefully be “in the money and have a lot of what it takes to get along”

Agree
The dividend payable in $ slightly reduces the yield with translation of 16c down to 12.09p this time
I guess the problem with yield over time Is how SP performs as any fall undercuts return calculated on an aggregate yield and capital return
There will of course be a pivot point at some level of SP bit with imperfect information market volatility will persist.

I’ll keep buying on dips hoping for support based on forecast cashflow generated from oil price recovery

It’s going to be a long wait until mid October I think

I think $ weakness is a factor this time around in terms of relative floor price and is affecting commodity prices in general

The $ weakness is due to amount of US QE that’s been pumped into the market but undeniably the sector has been shunned and there’s still a persistent demand side issue the supply side is struggling to address

The impact on the business is also cumulative and will take longer to recover from the longer it persists but I’m sticking and will continue to top up with small amounts at this level to average down hopefully allowing a quicker exit on any recovery

I’m still hoping for £15 by end 2021 GLA DYOR

Agree

There does at least currently look to be support around the 1010 level which the shares bounced off strongly yesterday and have just eased off today (low was actually 1009 when I checked a few minutes ago) but if it breaches 1000 it’s anybody’s guess with one BB ouster saying next level down is 875 which isn’t great news. I’m averaged at 1339 but can maybe get down to 1200 with dividends and patient accumulation after which it’ll be hair shirt until Brent hits $60 / barrel hopefully by end 2021

Good to see I’m consistent in jumping in at 1022 only to see the SP seep away beneath me

On a yield basis I think we are now at 4.75% but oil prices are going to need to rally a lot more for the SP to recover to recent levels but I’m cautiously hoping it will get back to the £14-15 range by end of 2021