Member Info for Barrieprov

Me too dananzi
My holding maybe small but it’s the best performing share I’ve held bar none and the return substantial in relation to my net worth so I’m grateful for all the technical input I’ve read on this board over the past two years

Maybe just maybe PFG has reached bottom and the share price has stabilised st a discount to NAV

I’m holding and would dearly like to be in a position to buy more but that’d probably put me in the invidious position of owning a much higher percentage of the equity of a listed company than I ever have and one that’s risky to say the least

GLA I expect this board will be quiet now until the company makes further announcements to the market hopefully with some advance warning maybe Q3

Littleaston
There was a labour MP I didn’t bother to check who she was talking about Nationalising the energy companies

That’ll guarantee we’ll have a one party country for the next 100 years as I don’t suppose the average pensioner wants his pension confiscated by government

That said Truss’s idea of regional pay structure and cuts to civil servant pay was quickly withdrawn

Politicians of both stripes really don’t have a clue I’m afraid

Sorry dananzi - spell checker made you a part of an unhappy history

danazi that’s not a small holding in my view so feel free to express a view! My very modest 1,950 shares concentrates my mind and focuses me on dividend

Seav

Good point well made about dividends

Even a 10% rise has given BP a 4% lift v 1.3% for Shell so I totally get where you’re coming from Seav and I’m disappointed with a 0% rise so here’s to Q3 when profits are unlikely to be as good as the previous two.

Seav

I think we both know a 70% dividend hike isn’t credible in the Current political climate as brain dead Truss who will win the Tory top job because everything the government does is counter factual will tax the business out of existence to get her party re elected on a tidal wave of the hard of thinking Daily Mail readership (used figuratively) but 10% would be nice

bigpunt

I guess on the basis all the bad news is behind us I would bet the ranch on this share as it does seem to be a case of buying £1 coins with the commemorative 70p platinum jubilee ones

Problem is I just don’t know if there’s more bad news to come either on cost control or impairment but you are right maybe a bit more time is needed to bottom that out

If the full year results aren’t clean I’ll reluctantly be heading for the exit but meanwhile have set a stop loss of 175 minus the interim dividend on part of my holding as if they fall much further somebody knows something I don’t

Jezzoo

My thought precisely - U.K. PLC under this government is a pariah - neither investable nor a pleasant place to work if indeed EU nationals can satisfy the criteria to do so

Jezzoo

I wonder if the board has allowed themselves to be swayed by politicians as I can’t substantiate it but thought I’d heard talk about further windfall taxes being levied on big oil

I’m not sure if that can be right as the existing program I think is due to last until 2025 but the degree of emotive rubbish coming out of the potentially successful PM candidate to me spells an unprecedented level of uncertainty about just how interventionist government could become
I agree that dividend yield isn’t going to look very good if BOE move the dial 0.5% on Thursday reducing the margin between risk and risk free return

Hi Boyobach
At this rate your shareholding will soon be nil cost
Maximum respect
I’m still calculating my average after taking profit on FIFO basis and treating my holding as unrealised gains on an average that’s increased due to recent buys higher up than maybe I could’ve got but like you I’m happy having increased my holding and moved my profits well into 5 figures which for a penny ante inexperienced operator like me isn’t bad

Theborn
They shot the lights out alright and are now stumbling around in the dark - as you say the only consolation is I believe I’ve recently been buying pound coins with the new jubilee 70 pence pieces but sadly they’re in short supply being limited edition issue but a year ago it now appears I was buying two pound coins for a fiver - I agree with your assessment that it’s time to give someone else a chance that can reduce the central costs and hxulcolrdoh (cryptic handle BTW) that their communications are so recondite as to leave no option than to assume the worst which I think is costs are out of control and the possibility of a profit warning in the full year figures is already priced in or largely so plus the risk of rising impairments is higher than management have provided for?
I’ll hold now at my average of 275 but wished I could afford to buy my way to an average below 250 but am in for c £12K which for a small time investor like me is a big risk as I’ve currently got £32K in Shell but am £11K in the money do effectively have reinvested unrealised profit in what is proving a problematic share - time will tell but I’ll raise my stop loss on 1,000 of my holding to 175 if the share goes above 200 once it becomes ex div - GLA and happy to exchange views as the economic backdrop becomes clearer

Hi Ubik_Fresh

I know what you mean as I’ve had to sell elsewhere to finance the purchase which means I’ve risked returns I might’ve had elsewhere plus increased my exposure to a riskier share

It’s a big gamble for me and one I’ve mulled over but if there’s any future for this company I need to give myself the best chance by averaging to cut my position sooner and plan to raise my stop loss if the company SP does manage to go back over £2 but the annual results are last chance I’m giving the management in terms of no more BS about jam tomorrow and I rather fancy someone bidding to unlock the value I believe exists within this business.

We’ll said MPO

Papers like The Daily Mail are printed for the hard of thinking

Hi Boyobach

I was always schooled in the belief that share buybacks were the last resort for companies that couldn’t find projects offering a better alternative return but despite the aggressive buyback policy the debt level of the business continues to fall and we’re it not for the buyback the gearing would almost be too low. The street shares in issue the better the ROCE metrics but given the number of shares in issue $6b is a drop in the ocean so wouldn’t move the dial - politically not the time to be paying special dividends to investors methinks.

I’m hoping like you for a gentle appreciation in SP and I’ve concluded that not being as skilled a trader I’ll just reinvest my dividends on the dips and hold until I reach my target.

Also trading this share for significant gain requires more capital than I have at my disposal.

GLA but I’m happy my average though now up to £16.26 on 1,950 shares I’ve an almost 5 figure gain on recent disposals

Hi Theborn et al

For better or worse I’ve doubled down and added 1,000 more at 186.277 - I’m going to calculate my average but I think I’ll be somewhere in the ball park of 275 and I’ve set a stop loss of 160 on 1,000 shares which I’ll raise with any recovery in SP
The shares will qualify for dividend so I’m effectively marginally in the money but the SP seems to assume the management are hopeless or the prospects of the business are poor given a repeat of profit for H1 in H2 means £100m for a company with a market cap of c £470m and a dividend of
c 15p a share is a yield of 7.5% adding the dividend back to current SP which is about double the rate I’m getting elsewhere albeit none of my other shares have been the basket case this one has turned out to be

GLA I’d like to think there’s someone out there who’s looking to buy the company as tilts good value IMHO and meanwhile some PI with deep pockets has bought 100x my investment.
The two buys of 342,000 are c 0.25% of the whole company so not an inconsiderable buy and for that reason I’m following the money hoping someone out there is more savvy than me and prepared to punt it DYOR but on past form I expect we’ll hear nothing from the company whatsoever for at least another 3m and it’ll be late Jan 2023 at the earliest before we get a glimmer of how the full year has gone unless of course it’s bad news :-(

Two ordinary trades at mid 180s
Not sure if Directors but if so that’s a big buy or could be II as £1.25m purchase
I’m tempted to go in at this level but will have to sell something to do it - would average me down nicely from my current in excess of £3

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/shell-SHEL/share-news/Shell-plc-Shell-Plc-2nd-Quarter-2022-And-Half-Year/88691565

Golly Theborn

Thanks a million for a most comprehensive review exposing the deficiencies in management reporting

I can only take comfort as I think you do that my layman’s interpretation is the SP appears to factor in the bad news and I’m holding for yield having a much bigger holding in value terms in Shell who announce results for Q2 tomorrow which offers a lower yield but that I suspect will be better so can if necessary offset my loss!
I’ve read with interest the notes about the presentation, in particular about slides that don’t cast which I’d be shot for in my former life as a management consultant and frankly I’d find that shocking for a company that was an unquoted SME let alone one listed on the stock exchange?

In a way I wish I could average down to get a better yield but there are material uncertainties in transparency that lead me to conclude the only option is to wait for full year results which may reduce some of those variables, in particular EPS and dividend policy. Thanks again and it’s good to see this BB come back to life after a long period of dormancy