Member Info for Barrieprov

Hi Theborn

Agree I was slightly disappointed by interim dividend albeit a full year payout of 15p is a yield of 7.5% based on 195p
I’m in at a much higher average so will have to hold at least until full year results are out to see clearer picture and impact of uncertainty on economy but looking at RNS it’s a lot to digest for my small brain so I’ll defer to your analysis and certainly the market isn’t reacting positively despite tone of management which appears contradictory to SP move :-(

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/provident-financial-PFG/share-news/Provident-Financial-PLC-Interim-results-for-six-mo/88679569

Hope it’s precautionary and not a leak but decent fall in price a day before results due??

So much for the run up pre results

Well GLA as if anything less than very positive news tomorrow these shares are worthless

Everything crossed there’s at least a bottom line profit

Fed up with endless stream of adjustments / exceptionals

Gary59

What’s your view on distribution policy though?
Are share buybacks better in the long run or increasing dividends? I thought maybe just continuing to pay down debt would help rerate the shares but then it makes it harder to generate a good ROCE with reduced leverage ?

Boyobach any thoughts??

I think the relationship between SP and OP needs a hard reboot via increased distribution policy Shell are implying as it looks as though Brent is going to suffer a sustained fall due to a number of macro economic factors and Covid
Pre pandemic the SP was in a very different place but also interest rates were near zero as was inflation so equities were very attractive - for now at least that’s not the case as central banks push rates nearer to yield the risk of holding shares becomes obvious. I’m holding but not buying more than reinvesting dividends hoping for recovery of SP to £24-£27 in the long term

Up 7 roll on 27th GLA

Thanks Theborn
I hadn’t spotted the date - a gentle uptick continues GLA a forensic analysis of the numbers will be crucial- I’ve got roughly £10K invested so would really like to see £4 / share if that’s not too speculative - I didn’t win EuroMillions or I’d become an activist investor in PFG

Scarcely a massive gain but decent move over two days
I’m now only £3K out of the money lol

Well observed Jim800
It’ll be interesting to learn what She’ll decide vis a vis shareholder returns as that may just pique the interest of institutions and lead to the sort of re rating of the SP you mentioned for its peer group

Hang on … this can’t be right??
Shares up 5% ?
Not sure I can remember when that last happened

Cheers Boyobach
I do have faith in Shell and agree holding cash unattractive during these inflationary times

Theborn

I’m the same

Holding with almost £10K invested well out of the money as shares currently worth £6K but can’t bring myself to add more fur to obvious negative sentiment around share / sector which on fundamentals denies logic

GLA when those long awaited results eventually arrive

Thanks 5lawsofgold that makes perfect sense
I accept the need for patience and like the idea of reinvesting dividends just as I do with premium bond prizes

RDSB1
I’m really an innocent abroad when it comes to shares so don’t be too hard on me
I could’ve taken a fat profit but just got greedy that’s all
I’ll get over the disappointment but Boyobach has come out with some accurate predictions with regard to SP v OP and I do at least find it easier to follow the logic of his charts

I’m over my disappointment as it’s mostly hindsight and inexperience that caused me to arrive at this position and the only fox will be the SP recovering to £24 in medium term

I wish you well with your holdings and have no doubt you’re doing better than I am at present

Well so much for holding

Brent futures now $96 and Shell has perfectly followed OP down to 1920 territory so only £5 / share less than I could’ve sold the share for a matter of a few weeks ago!

That’s moan over!

Guess I’ll see it’s a buying opportunity though it’s hard to call the bottom so I’ll buy small and maybe add more on further falls if that happens

Didn’t expect such a rate of fall but US market really gripped by fear of inflation and interest rate rises and oil price paralysis due to demand side failure

Any comments from wiser heads welcome!

Boyobach

You’ve totally nailed it

The dividend is the key issue with rising rates reducing the risk premium on equities generally

Shell is on a P/E slightly lower than BP and hovering on the boundary of single and double figures while yield is a bit lower than BP on forecast basis with strong $ cancelling out between two but nevertheless improving the individual yield and to some extent explaining the relative resilience of the U.K. market

Love the charts by the way

Am considering picking up some BP and focusing on energy sector which is risky but the only way I can deploy meaningful capital and sitting on cash not an option with inflation at 10%

Totally my decision but the analyses really help and it’s refreshing being on a BB that isn’t full of disparate elements ****ging each other off

GLA DYOR all the usual salutations and caveats

Good point nutkins100
I’d missed that by focusing on recent past
Saw a broker has reiterated buy on share but dropped target to 1420 from 1600 so past not being guide to future seems to apply to this share! I’ve just sold some on recent rally to free up some cash at a small profit but I always manage struggle to get my timing right on this share including forgetting the ex div date but eventually I’ll buy and hold when I’ve achieved my profit goal or at least seen a recovery elsewhere

Cr@p
Me too £24.50 seems long ago

Theborn

Couldn’t agree more unfortunate I’ve got 3,000 turds priced closer to gold bars than toadstools currently :-(