Member Info for Bantham

BOJO - take a look at the two year and one year share price graph for Angle.

The first thing you see is a one way substantial down trend. That means anyone who believed in Newland and held their shares as a long term investment lost a lot of their investment - on paper at least.

The second thing you see is multiple price spikes ( you need to look at the one year graph aswell as they get lost in the two year). That’s where the company issued some exciting update / breakthrough and the rampers ramped. The rampers knew what they were doing and sold at a profit. Even EC sold some shares during the last ramp for goodness sake because he isn’t a fo0l [ BTW i am not criticising EC - i don’t consider EC as a ramper - i think he’s a real believer ]. But the rampers sucked in gullible punters who were more likely to lose money - it’s actually an example where what’s written on this site and ADVFN does have an impact on people’s behaviour sadly.

This is not ‘ normal share price behaviour’ as you suggest. It’s a company which IMHO hypes announcements which appear to actively encourage rampers and leads to losses for the unwary.

So i don’t get the criticism of those of us who simply suggest there is enormous risk to a long term investment here. To me it is just a statement of the obvious.

DYOR etc etc - but the share price graph isn’t a bad place to start.

I don’t understand your point aimgambler.

The only way people lose money is when they get sucked in by rampers and then sell at a significant loss when the hot money leaves. This is exactly what happened to a lot of people with Angle. And it’s happened multiple times.

The only people who make money are the rampers who sell while they are ramping. Maybe your comments should be aimed at them?

None of us our short - that would be nuts on a volatile stock and I’m not even sure it’s possible for Angle. If it is perhaps you could explain how to do it? We just think if you invest here ( rather than trade on a ramp ) you will lose money.

EC - i mean objectively a track record of failure.

Who set the original expectations of Parsortix sales? Newland.

Who, nearly 2 years after FDA approval has secured no orders of any materiality? Newland?

Who, having set a sales target of £6m this year, has announced virtually no new orders to support that target? Newland.

Who has spent nearly £100m - or something of that sort - getting to a position where there is zero evidence of real commercial traction? Newland.

Doesn’t sound like success to me.

Maybe there’s one area where he has succeeded - as a kind of cult leader promising his followers that he will get them to the promised land despite all evidence to the contrary. And getting some people to believe that.

EC - Newland has a track record of failure.

He has burned through £10’s of millions to date and has made no significant commercial achievement.

He also appears to have alienated any half decent Institutional Investor. At least there are none on the register.

If he can’t get serious investors into the stock why do you think some corporate will pay a big premium?

Honestly - Newland has never done a decent deal so i really don’t understand why you trust he ‘ won’t sell on the cheap’. I think there are zero corporate buyers for this ( the evidence being that if they were they would have taken advantage of what you believe to be a very low share price ). However, let’s pretend for a moment that there is a buyer. Well in that case if a proposal were made he would have to take it at pretty much any price as his alternative will be to raise equity and he doesn't have the investors to raise £millions from as it’s a retail / day-trader register.

EC i agree it’s fun to speculate about some corporate riding in over the plains and making a bid at a massive premium. It’s always nice to dream.

But in reality there’s been nothing to stop a bid ever since the FDA approval. And no-one has bid. And that suggests to me it’s unlikely to happen in the near future - specifically until Newland can demonstrate ( a bit ) that he’s got a commercial product. And he’s miles ( years? ) away from that.

So my guess is a fundraising would happen first - not least as we have seen virtually no progress in hitting the £6m revenue target.

If you spent the time - i did a few months back - going through all AEG’s statements over the last few years you can see they leap from one thing to another with singular regularity. And then there’s no follow up. So i concluded that there is no real strategy - except that one day, over the rainbow, skies are blue. And i am not sure that’s a real strategy is it?.

Maybe Emerald can clarify it for us based on real market opportunity in specific target areas rather than the ‘ $100 billion ‘ nonsense that even Newland seems to have finally stopped repeating. Maybe it’s along the lines of ‘ if i could sell one Parsortix machine for every 100,000 Chinese people we would all make a fortune’?

Looks like has some broad overlap with Angle - except of course that it has a proven business model / customers / revenue generating and a management team with a successful track record.

You have to admit that this is a great trading stock if you have nerves of steel.

If they said that to you - which they shouldn’t - please could you post the detail of their response? Thank you

Are there other people who won this stock?!

The BREAKTHROUGH announcement?

The only answer can be that the market is behaving in a crazy way isn’t it?

This thing is worth at least 47p - i mean there was a golden cross. And the analysts value it at 120p.

Where are all the institutional buys we were promised? And why haven’t the Directors piled in? I can only imagine that we will see those buys any moment. This surely offers incredible value for anyone coming in now?

Or was it all an illusion? Please tell me this wasn’t rinse and repeat like all the other spikes that went before?

Kipper - i perhaps phrased that badly.

What i should have said is ‘ they are not communicating as if they have a grip on the situation’

the first RNS this year was also problematic. It simply wasn’t clear. No-one could say they had a better view on the situation after that RNS but it raised a number of uncertainties. I call that thoughtless to say the least. Worried me at the time as i posted at the time. I should have followed my instincts and sold then but i was too emotionally engaged! Always a big mistake…..

If anyone in the company reads this stuff ( probably unlikely ) they should learn from it . If you are running a tight ship commercially ( and i hope they are but am beginning to doubt it - hence trimming my holding even at this price alongside many others it appears ) you shouldn't let yourself down ( and the shareholders ) with poor communication which feeds uncertainty. It’s not difficult to be clear even if you have a difficult message to convey.

This feels like the Board doesn’t have a good grip of the situation.

Horribly reminiscent of Angle.

Having to sell some at these nasty prices because IMO the risk profile of this company has changed.

Execs should hang their heads in shame for those two poorly worded RNS’s. If you have difficult news you need to communicate it carefully and clearly. They failed to do that.

I am an LTH and this is one of my larger holdings. But dreaming things are better than they are isn’t a great plan.

Both those RNS’s were poor. Messaging was unclear and suggested lack of grip or a team which didn’t want to communicate clearly. Either way - not good. Credibility shot. Share price smashed. They need to get this stuff right or they end up like Angle - one of my top examples of hype and failure.

I think it makes lots of sense.

Two badly worded RNS’s. Lack of clarity. Allows doubt and uncertainty after a period of confidence. Hot money / fearful investors run for the door. That accelerates as price falls. CEO has lost a lot of credibility and that’s expensive.

The only good news is that this can turn round and maybe the sell-off has been too aggressive. I hope so. - but the Board needs to get its act together and communicate properly.

For most people here it was to go long on Angle.

Mine was to go long on Destiny Pharma which has been total car crash today.

Every day offers the chance to learn something :)

Noix - of course the facts are fundamental . But what you are seeing here is the destruction of credibility. And that’s a result of the wording of the last two RNS’s.

No-one can regret that more than me. I have a large holding - fortunately still just in the blue.

Noix - actually i like the way you have written it!

We obviously see this differently to each other. It happens!

But the share price is down 12 per cent for a reason. And IMO it’s not simply due to the facts - it’s the poor way in which they have presented these facts. Obviously i can’t prove that but if i were in their shoes i would be thinking quite carefully about the precise wording of their next communication.

Ok. Here’s what i think about clarity.

First, it’s a very clear statement on XF 73 Dermal. Clear and positive. And clear quotes from CSO + CEO. No comments on that.

But then they tack on NTCD-M3. They didn’t have to say anything about this but they decided to. So what do they say? Well they are having to make changes to manufacturing. And they are having to change the product from solid to liquid. And these changes might require a further Phase 2 study. So you have some very significant changes and likely delays to market but it’s not really spelled out is it? And then you have this quote:

‘For any drug programme, the CMC elements of a development plan are critical to its success and one of my first jobs has been to review the integrity and robustness of the CMC for all our programmes and make enhancements where they will add value for our assets."

And that’s my real issue. It doesn't mean anything really does it. Of course it means Chris has a job to do - and that’s important. But it doesn't have any specific bearing on what’s happening with NTCD M3. And what’s happening is delays.

So it looks to me that they have had some issues to resolve with NTCD M3 but they don’t really want to explain that. And they have used the XF 73 announcement to get this news out at the same time. It’s the kind of thing lots of plcs do - but i think it’s a bit low grade. I would prefer that he manned up and addressed the specifics rather than employing generalities.

BTW - the share price fell sharply. Well it didn’t fall because of XF 73 did it? I think it fell because 1. Difficulties to overcome on NTCD but more particularly 2. They have tried to dress this up as a positive - IE ‘ strengthening manufacturing ‘ and that quote of Chris’s. And i think that’s how your credibility gets chipped away.

And i thought the same on the earlier RNS this year. Lot’s of words - some contradictory - but no clarity. In fact you are left wondering what was the point of it.

I’m not sure it necessarily has to be upbeat.

But if he’s going to say something it should be said clearly and we shouldn’t be left guessing the implications.

It’s this lack of clarity that hits confidence. And i think that’s what’s hit the price today.

No need to score own-goals.