The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
I am an LTH and this is one of my larger holdings. But dreaming things are better than they are isn’t a great plan.
Both those RNS’s were poor. Messaging was unclear and suggested lack of grip or a team which didn’t want to communicate clearly. Either way - not good. Credibility shot. Share price smashed. They need to get this stuff right or they end up like Angle - one of my top examples of hype and failure.
I think it makes lots of sense.
Two badly worded RNS’s. Lack of clarity. Allows doubt and uncertainty after a period of confidence. Hot money / fearful investors run for the door. That accelerates as price falls. CEO has lost a lot of credibility and that’s expensive.
The only good news is that this can turn round and maybe the sell-off has been too aggressive. I hope so. - but the Board needs to get its act together and communicate properly.
Noix - of course the facts are fundamental . But what you are seeing here is the destruction of credibility. And that’s a result of the wording of the last two RNS’s.
No-one can regret that more than me. I have a large holding - fortunately still just in the blue.
Noix - actually i like the way you have written it!
We obviously see this differently to each other. It happens!
But the share price is down 12 per cent for a reason. And IMO it’s not simply due to the facts - it’s the poor way in which they have presented these facts. Obviously i can’t prove that but if i were in their shoes i would be thinking quite carefully about the precise wording of their next communication.
Ok. Here’s what i think about clarity.
First, it’s a very clear statement on XF 73 Dermal. Clear and positive. And clear quotes from CSO + CEO. No comments on that.
But then they tack on NTCD-M3. They didn’t have to say anything about this but they decided to. So what do they say? Well they are having to make changes to manufacturing. And they are having to change the product from solid to liquid. And these changes might require a further Phase 2 study. So you have some very significant changes and likely delays to market but it’s not really spelled out is it? And then you have this quote:
‘For any drug programme, the CMC elements of a development plan are critical to its success and one of my first jobs has been to review the integrity and robustness of the CMC for all our programmes and make enhancements where they will add value for our assets."
And that’s my real issue. It doesn't mean anything really does it. Of course it means Chris has a job to do - and that’s important. But it doesn't have any specific bearing on what’s happening with NTCD M3. And what’s happening is delays.
So it looks to me that they have had some issues to resolve with NTCD M3 but they don’t really want to explain that. And they have used the XF 73 announcement to get this news out at the same time. It’s the kind of thing lots of plcs do - but i think it’s a bit low grade. I would prefer that he manned up and addressed the specifics rather than employing generalities.
BTW - the share price fell sharply. Well it didn’t fall because of XF 73 did it? I think it fell because 1. Difficulties to overcome on NTCD but more particularly 2. They have tried to dress this up as a positive - IE ‘ strengthening manufacturing ‘ and that quote of Chris’s. And i think that’s how your credibility gets chipped away.
And i thought the same on the earlier RNS this year. Lot’s of words - some contradictory - but no clarity. In fact you are left wondering what was the point of it.
I’m not sure it necessarily has to be upbeat.
But if he’s going to say something it should be said clearly and we shouldn’t be left guessing the implications.
It’s this lack of clarity that hits confidence. And i think that’s what’s hit the price today.
No need to score own-goals.
BVista - i am afraid i don’t agree.
Destiny has now put out two poorly considered RNS’s this year. They just both seem muddled.
That raises questions about what’s going on.
It’s really important for small companies to communicate well - whether things are going great or whether issues have arisen. This company is failing to do that and that should matter to LTH’s.
In particular it’s opaque messaging on NTCD-M3.
I take it as negative. So does the market. So why not be really clear. What does Chris’s quote on this even mean?
Really off the pace.
Agreed. Last two communications very poorly thought out.
Unimpressed.
It’s a shame as historically they have been thoughtful around communication.
Bojo - you have been misled. Very few companies pay for research for the simple reason that no-one believes it as it is not independent.
No company in the FTSE 350 will pay for research.
And most below that won’t either.
If you don’t believe me, then just find 1 company in the FTSE 350 who does. That should be pretty easy.
But you know. - who cares whether it is paid for or not? i mean if you want to rely on that research note when they specifically tell you that you shouldn’t, go ahead. No doubt you will make a fortune :)
Agreed.
What amazes me is the nonchalance of so many LTH’s on the Balance sheet. The cash is pretty much spent by the year end and - it seems to me - a lot more will be required just to keep the lights on after that. So to the obvious question - who is going to fund a [£15m] ask? It has to be II’s. But there aren’t any [ yes i very slightly exaggerate EC to illustrate the problem ]. If that isn’t risky i don’t know what is.
But our ramping friends say - ‘ no worries, there’s £15m of cash and that takes us through to 2H 2025’.
Well even if that’s not massively risky from a funding requirement ( which it is ) have you guys ever thought about how potential customers might look at the situation? You think ‘ big pharma’ doesn't look at Balance Sheets and the ability to deliver longterm.? Well i have news for you - that’s exactly what they do. And Angle’s balance sheet won’t be appealing to these counterparties.
Constantly amazes me how people ignore obvious warning signs when their eyes are focussed on a massive prize over the horizon.
IMO DYOR please
I don’t think so DG.
IR’s main job is to build II relationships - which is exactly what Angle needs. No II will pay any attention to paid for research - they will run their own models. They would perhaps have paid attention to research from Jeffries - or at least that would have got on their desks.
So who is the audience for this stuff? We are……
Just to be totally clear - note the following in the disclaimer:
‘Research on its client companies produced by TDRL is normally commissioned and paid for by those companies themselves (‘issuer financed research’) and as such is not deemed to be independent, as defined by the FCA, but is ‘objective’ in that the authors are stating their own opinions. The report should be considered a marketing communication for purposes of the FCA rules. ‘
In other words, Angle has money to commission stuff like this but can’t afford an IR director to develop institution relationships.
Go figure….
And DYOR
Sandy - thanks for this.
A few points.
Valuation - even based on massive hope value they only get to 67p. Note the discount rate for the DCF is only 10%.
How many times do they note how difficult it is / going to be to get commercial traction?
It’s a corporate client - so this is ‘ paid for research’ i think.
It’s clear they think the best route to market would require much more cash: ‘ Although an internally developed complete “sample-to-answer” approach would arguably retain more value, we believe that in order to realise the commercial potential a meaningful installed base would need to be established, which would take time and require substantial additional investment. ‘
They forecast just £4m of cash at year end. No surprise there - but let that focus minds for a moment for people who think they can delay a raise into 2025.
This is not something for the LTH’s to take comfort from. Quite the opposite.
DYOR - seriously
Hi Sajy - where did you pick up that the company already have the results? I can’t see that.
Good analysis in my opinion JTIT.
I too became very concerned about announcements that never seemed to lead anywhere.
AN is very strong on the announcement of ‘ breakthroughs’ but doesn’t have much of a track record on delivery.
One of the many red flags related to Angle and its BoD.
That’s why all the longs here are just hoping for a dream to come true. Maybe it will this time but history suggests otherwise.
I note we are pretty much back to the price before the latest ‘ breakthrough’ . All that tells you is the hot money flooded in and ramped up the price and then it left and , surprise surprise, the price dropped back down. In the meantime some people lost a huge percentage of their investment based on the ramping.
Don’t be so pompous Mr Giffiths. This site is a bit of entertainment. No-one takes any notice of anyone else’s views - which is probably a good thing. EC / TG2D - don’t take it so seriously. Except bear in mind that EC made money at the top so maybe he’s worth listening to?
And glad you had a chance to chat to Brett. Your opinion on him is very important despite no links to RNS’s / other sources. BTW - you mind verifying your discussion in some way in line with your advice to the rest of us?
And could you clear something else up for me? You have clearly forgotten that you apparently filtered TG2D some time ago. Did you forget you told us that or did you miss his posts and unfilter him? Either way - let’s at least always try to tell the truth shall we ( if that doesn't sound too pompous )?
Hope you enjoyed it EC. I was trying to copy your style - with a twist! Just for fun.
Actually you were smart because you sold a slice at 30p. Always a good plan that i don’t do enough.
Anyway - i would like you / the LTH’s to make money. You deserve it for all the pain Newland has inflicted on you.