Member Info for Bantham

The original warrants are actually exercisable from the first anniversary of Admission to the third anniversary. That’s clear in the Offering Document. They are not something to ignore because they are enormous relative to the issued equity and bring in virtually zero consideration. They should be included when you do your NAV calculation. Whether or not you think they are ‘ a nasty’ or not depends on your point of view. Personally i think they are.

IMHO etc

Wow!

I was looking at the Listing Doc - so they must have issued a lot more.

If thats correct, there are c.420m fully diluted shares. And there’s. £200m of Bitcoin.

So the NAV is 48p. And it’s trading on about 4.5x NAV.

Put it another way. Let’s say the price / NAV falls over time ( not in the next couple of months but over time ) to 2x. That means to maintain the current share price ( let alone grow it ) they need to double NAV per share. As they already hold £200m of Bitcoin that’s not necessarily a simple thing to do.

And there appears to me to be a massive mismatch between the interests of the warrant holders - mostly insiders - and the average punter. The warrant holders will be extremely happy so see further Bitcoin accumulation at any share price which sees an increase in NAV per share. But the punters will bear share price dilution. Why is that? Well the warrant holders can’t simply convert and sell ATM for a multitude of obvious reasons. So what they need is the greatest value of NAV per share when / if the gravy train ends. They then get that value in any quasi-liquidation and distribution. And they make the most enormous return imaginable. The punters also get that NAV - but they invested at 200p and not 2.5p. The transfer of value suddenly becomes obvious…..

Makes me wonder why if you love Bitcoin and really believe in it’s appreciation you don’t choose to buy Bitcoin futures - at least you aren’t paying 4.5x NAV for that and you get the geared return.

I think it will also be very interesting to see the appetite for new equity after the convertible was issued. If one set of investors get copper-bottomed downside protection why would anyone settle for equity with zero protection. If i was offered the covert i would buy it in an instant ( provided the total amount that could be issued was capped at not too great a % of the Bitcoin holding ). But the equity? Not yet at this premium……

Exactly Freddie. It’s this kind of thing that matters if this is going to be a long-term success.

The automotive slow down hurts. But it has no bearing on whether or not they have a great new technology for airports. Thats still to be proven but constant progress is positive.

Thanks. I’m open-minded on this too.

I’m going to wait and see if they can get a lot more equity away post that convert without investors demanding similar downside protection.

It’s a very interesting one to follow and think about.

Very interesting discussion 21ATS.

What do you think Lyn would think about 4.5x NAV?!

User Steve

Isn’t the right maths as follows ( all in round numbers):

280m shares in issue after the most recent issuance and assuming convertible converts

96 shares from warrantswhich most definitely will convert given 2.5p pricing ( and negligible proceeds to offset dilution )

So thats around 380m shares.

Bitcoin worth c.£210m.

That’s NAV of 52p per share - so at 220p price it’s trading on 4.5x NAV ATM.

You might argue this idea is worth a premium - but that level seems excessive.

And then i am bothered by that quantity of warrants at that price ( and a three year life for that matter ). I don’t much like structures which massively enrich early investors at expense of later investors suffering massive dilution.

Over time you would expect any NAV premium to decline - i don’t think that’s contentious. So there’s a longer term trend which will be a downward force on price.

Anyway - to make money from 220p don’t you need £100’s millions coming in at these price levels or a premium to make money from here? Maybe some smart person could do the maths. I may have a go myself.

I am also worried that the CEO doesn't think there is any risk to the company from the convert. Seems to me there is very considerable risk if the share price falls and bitcoins goes through a rough patch at the same time this time next year. If that situation crystallised there could be a material hit to bitcoin per share as the convertible is paid out in bitcoin. Maybe that situation won’t arise. But i am surprised he doesn't seem to recognise the risk as he otherwise seems quite a straight speaker.

But my point is the risk reward here seems very skewed - and i say that as a bitcoin investor so i like the underlying asset.

So i don’t get it ATM but i reserve judgement to see if they can issue £10’s of millions of equity at this price and above in the coming weeks. If so i may think again.

I agree.

One of the risks i mentioned crystallised - which is financing. And i had not thought about the automotive risk. This is a long term investment and not for traders. Still in- tact as far as i am concerned and back to where we were in Jan…..

Not a great day but far from a disaster.

And another point. If this is available to investors why would anyone just buy the equity. The recent equity places must be feeling like total suckers as they bought at higher prices with no downside protection. Doesn’t look good for more equity raises.

I think the team - very smart though they are - haven’t thought the capital raising through in their rush to buy bitcoin and raise funds.

What does TOBAM get here: exposure to bitcoin - which it likes as an asset. Possibility of making premium returns if SWC share price performs well. Downside covered subject to bitcoin price movement - which it’s happy to take as could otherwise buy the bitcoin itself. So great upside exposure and zero downside risk subject to bitcoin exposure. It’s an easy bet given SWC already has 2000 bitcoin. I would buy this any day of the week.

What does SWC get? New funds for investment but very considerable downside risk if SWC doesn't perform / bitcoin slides. And the risk crystallises in the short term - so exposure to short-term downside volatility versus belief in long term bitcoin outperformance. Potentially very risky therefore. IMO this is great structure when the machine is proved out and this is tiny fraction of bitcoin held in treasury. But seems massively early and risky to be doing this so early.

Time will tell - but on basis of this, maybe not one to invest the mortgageable.

My mistake - i didn’t mean to misquote you but i don’t think it makes any difference.

And i should have added:

Let’s imagine they are actually having some commercial discussions. No-one is going to waste time negotiating with a company on the edge of the abyss - they would require a clear solution which sees considerable capital coming into the company - otherwise they are wasting their time. We saw this with Destiny Pharma where i made some ill-thought bets previously.

So contracts and capital raise must go hand in hand - you aren’t going to see a commercial contract in the absence of cash.

So IMO that’s another aspect of this death spiral.

IMO DYOR etc

However, for it to work / hit take-off speed they need to keep raising capital - to state the obvious before anyone makes the point.

In that case getting the execution right around the raises is super-important.

Raising large amounts at 325p etc and then a small amount at 205p suggests bad execution to me. Better to have raised at a lower price earlier rather than raising of a hyped price - and then keep progressing raises at higher prices so all investors are in the money isn’t it?

Makes me wonder whether we have a very smart team with a smart idea - but who can’t execute.

Am interested to come in - but that’s putting me off.

Anyone can tell me why this doesn't matter?

TG2D - You think they should remove the CEO ( which of course i agree with and have thought so for years ) . However, it’s simply not possible to do that today. For all his ( immense ) flaws and failures, he has deep knowledge of the business and will have some have decent contacts. Yes - he could have been removed ages ago when the company had some cash. But when serious cash is required imminently if he goes the whole show ends. Have a think about who would take the CEO role when the company is on the brink of insolvency - my view is only some desperate chancer with no other options. And who would invest into such a situation?

This is toast. The hapless Board have run it into the ground having ignored multiple red flags and warnings. Whichever way you look at it, it’s uninvestable but the Board will keep going until the cupboard is bare.

Sad - but IMO unfortunately true.

DYOR etc as i have mentioned on a few occasions.

Hi Chester.

I agree - so many unanswered questions of substance while AN hyped things which appeared to have little commercial value - or at least where he wasn’t able to commercialise.

I invested big in this post FDA.

After a while i realised that i was being sold a dream. And i worried about the ethics of how i was being sold this dream. And i came to the conclusion that the CEO was not the kind of person to impress big Pharma. And then i had an idea that i could see how this would end.

So I sold out at a very substantial loss.

The writing has been on the wall for years i am afraid.

DYOR etc…..

Correcting the punctuation for you EC:

“Prior to joining ANGLE in March 2020, Ghada led a successful career.”

Yes - there is something morbidly fascinating about it.

I convinced myself to hold on for grim life in a previous situation. And once you’ve done that, you hope you’ve learned the lesson. Watching this play out reminds you to watch out elsewhere.

Hoping for a bid is really pretty desperate:

1. No-one wants to buy it. This wishful-thinking bid chat has been around for years. And there’s been zero sign of any interest.

2. If someone was interested they would wait. Why? Because there’s little chance AN will be able to attract new equity at any price. Then at some stage this will be heading towards insolvency. So a bidder could buy it for 2p or whatever.

However, my bet is AN simply drives this into insolvency in Q1 2026.

IMHO DYOR

But I think I can hear the fat lady singing

I would add another option - which i personally think is most likely - which is the whole thing goes down as they will need to raise a lot and i can’t see anyone fool enough to support a big fundraise behind this team. And i think that’s why the NEDs have leapt overboard and swum to shore. So for me it’s get some good deals and maybe, just maybe have a chance of getting a fundraise away. Or it’s game over.

DYOR - and good luck to those invested here.