RE: Looking at buying here29 Aug 2020 12:06
I would imagine that with further preliminary works completed a better finance package will be available. If they have to raise 20% of the capex equity that would be around £50m. Doing that at a higher SP than today considering the current undervaluation based upon NPV and MCap at just 3%, it would be nice to think that capital could be raised at 20p and therefore only place and additional 250m shares in to the pot.
There are various scenarios. 20p is a 300% upside from here and would still only represent circa 13% of the Khemmiset NPV so not an impossible ask.
If that was the scenario we could then end up with around 1bn shares in issue but what would the value or MCap be for a producing Potash mine with the figures shown to date.
Regardless of whether they have to raise 20 or 40% at 10p or 20p there is every chance that by the time production is reached Emmerson could be a £1bn business and there is every chance that will result in a 15 - 25 x SP appreciation from this level.
Its likely that as the market catches on the SP and MCap will start to correct in line with fair value for pre-production potash as mentioned in one of the recent interviews, on the ASX this is 33% average of NPV, we are at 3.3%.
Fundraise timing will be critical to minimise dilution, so we should expect a greater campaign to promote EML in order to get thebSP appreciation and provide shareholder value.