Member Info for Bananaman2

Personally, i don't see the elevated MCap over EQT as justifiable. But i guess just mentioning the word 'hydrogen' adds £100m to the PHE MCap.

@holdandhope, really great find and thanks for providing the link. I listened whilst driving back down the M1. Very interesting regarding Uskmouth and seem to be very close to obtaining consents. Notice how he reiterates that this is not an incineration plant or energy from waste and is keen to demonstrate that the only change to the existing is the change from coal to the subcoal pellets.

Also very interesting to hear more about Meygen phase 2 and the PW PPA for DCs. This could be equally big for Simec Atlantis.

Such a great business with a diverse portfolio of projects. For some reason today I have closed a number of trades and freed up some capital. It will be staying as cash until the stability returns to the market. But I am definitely looking to add more here. Now my biggest investment in the PF.

SD. Not sure I understand that. A candle running out of wax just fizzles out.

Redundancy. Yes, people are spooked by the market and the fact that Aries may serve EQT.

Personally I think Aries are fighting a loosing battle and it will have little affect on EQT but try they will.

As I said last week, this really is holding back the SP but this was shot down by some. The SP doesn't make sense if you consider the new contract and financial close last week. It is now below the price pre these events.

Seems like a no brainer but really not worth adding anymore until it reaches where ever its going to stop.

Not me out and certainly still very pro EQT just being a realist in respect to the share price, market and stupid claim these yanks are inflicting on EQT.

Yes, odd one Stokey12. NFCP and Pheonix seems to be the main target of the complaint and the Eqtec equipment is just part of the entire 'gasification of biomass' process that Aries are getting their knickers in a twist over.

It may well be that they have looked at the Eqtec information and lawyers response and thought stuff that, we haven't got a leg to stand on, but continue to pursue the complaint of infringement with NFCP and Pheonix as they just feel that its stepping on their toes being of a similar nature to the Aries business ??? I am sure, as Mark Zuckerberg once said 'If I make a really good chair, it doesn't mean i should pay a fee to everyone else that made a chair' would be the case and they are pi55ing in the wind.

I guess we will find out one day, but it doesn't seem to bother Eqtec who keep on pulling in new contracts and going about BAU (Business as Usual)

stokey12. How do they go to trial to settle the claim if Aries do not serve the claim on the defendant ?

60 days by my calculation from the 9th July, starting as day 1 on the 10th July takes us to 60 days today. Correct me if I am wrong on that but I did count the days one by one on the calendar.

Not sure what we did the other day to arrive at Wednesday ? and why we had Wednesday in our mind ?

Just a couple of questions that I have thrown up today for some discussion.

This is the detail courtesy of stokey12

shareseeker. Any information you read on here is speculative and only opinions of posters.

However, as has been discussed, it is believed to be this Wednesday by which time Aries must serve EQT.

I would expect that they have either realised that its not in their interest to pursue this and not serve or they will leave it until the last minute which will be Wednesday.

Unless we have all got it wrong but there has been several interpretations of the California legal system and we believe that Wednesday is the day.

All good from where I am sitting. Had a mis-timed top up at 0.5824 today. This is now a silly price and is below the eweRGY financial close and has not even looked at this new site and contract. So neither are now factored in what so ever. MCap still sits at £40m

OHS. My average is still under 16p. I pumped loads in at 13p after missing out on the primary bid.

Also all in ISA's

Yes, I am taking a little risk based upon gaining environmental permits. My research over the weekend led me to a 'friends of the earth' letter that was sent to the relevant people objecting to the project. So it is not going to please everyone!

It tries to highlight the facts that it goes against certain environmental policy and obviously demonstrates the negatives avoiding the positives of this type of project.

Yes the world would be a great place if we had no emission technology which could be used efficiently and effectively from any location. The way I see this project is that it deals with non recyclable waste in a way that produces efficient energy. Emissions will be treated to comply regulatory requirements. It is a cost effective solution which will be the first of its kind.

It is still a fingers crossed and hope that the environmental permit arrives this month but one I decided to take.

Another 6250 added at 27.4p. Total top up today of 20k of shares.

Not looking at this short term at the minute. I do think this will be going much higher on further news and de-risking.

26.9p. Below mid so will show as a sell.

Haha. Yeah, its not interested in positive news.

'Oh, its only another contract with a projection of circa £4m per annum in revenue for the next twenty years. Just stick on the pile with the other 25 in the pipeline'

EQT have a great business strategy. Why would they not be taking 100% in all these of they can get the finance for for the project. Absolute no brainer.

The whole market is under pressure at the minute.

Yes. Just the market in general I am afraid. Nothing to do with EQT

Just added another 13750 to my holding this morning. Right or wrong timing, I don't know but convinced myself that in 6 months time the SP will be much higher and in 2 to 4 years time higher again still so wasn't worried about any immediate fluctuations.

Adding another 5000 later, possibly this week.

Southernhay. I agree with that. Very bland when it could have been used to demonstrate progress.

No meat on the bones at all, nothing to really say that we are close to free cash flows.

As it was a report to end of June it is historical and thats all I can say but I am not excited by it. I do hope that this week we see substantial orders filter through

fairview. I think what Feeks meant was that 1.5Mw was the only figure provided. We can only assume the balance of the other sales.

It could very easily be 3Mw up to and including the last SAF order. Possibly a number of smaller order since but quite easily exceeding 3Mw total.

Free cash flow could not be far off but its the big orders we like to hear about as it means businesses are putting their money where their mouth is a supporting Verditek and recognising their products.

I have used the median figure for RDF and nit considered that to produce 900,000 MT of pellets you would actually need 1.1mMT of waste. Thus increasing the receivable gate fee figure by a few million.

My point is that this is highly profitable and in the £10s of millions not just a couple of £mn.

So by 2026, SAE are projected to be generating EBITDA of circa £100m per annum, without the NPA fuel EBITDA. Just adding the NPA fuel EBITDA would take this closer to £115m per annum.

Without subtracting tax etc and applying an arbitrary PE is easy to see how SAE could be worth well over £1bn. Particularly important to note is that the projections do not consider any potential growth or partnerships which are not evident or in motion. I just get the feeling that Uskmouth conversion will be deployed elsewhere and this will not be the one and only of its kind in the world.

not sure if this has been discussed on here or any real figures have been calculated but the benefit of NPA fuels based solely on supply of Uskmouth with 900000MT per annum are staggering

The gate fee charged by NPA fuels has to be assumed but looking at a number of websites it could be estimated at £100 per MT

https://www.letsrecycle.com/prices/efw-landfill-rdf-2/

The Arden broker note states that the sale price of the pellets is just £4 per MT (huge benefit to Uskmouth) and the cost to manufacture is £50 per MT

So

900,000 x £104 per MT (£100 gate fee plus £4 sale price per MT) = £93,600,000

£93,600,000 - (50 x 900,000) = £48,600,000 gross margin for NPA fuels

£48,600,000 / 2 = £24,300,000 attributable to Simec Atlantis per annum

The value in this partnership is not considered in the Arden broker note but will actually add more revenue to the business than the tidal projects.

Happy for someone to recalculate this and discuss.

My excitement came from the fact that this is proprietry fuel which is hugely scaleable and could obviously be used globally in further facilities develooed by NPA fuels (50% SAE owned) or licenced out. But the only reason to do this would be if further coal fired conversions were completed.

This alone adds significant value to the business. Just not sure it has been looked at or understood just how much.