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Hi Malva

You missed the piece in my post where I quoted $30m per month from the end of the 15 month period to the first ore production this is from those stock piles, this could continue for 12 months or more depending on number of trains they use

Hi Malva

You caught me last night when I was very agitated with a couple of other posters.

The mining plan is the 21.6mt identified in the Newmont resource estimate from December.

Shaun said he identified further stockpiles that Newcrest just discarded this could amount to 30mt, the grades were very variable but said they were viable low grade around 0.3g/t. From the end of processing the mining plan ore these stockpiles will be processed prior to the other ores coming from underground so there should be a continual flow of ore. The 30mt hasn’t a fee to pay.

On Havieron they are not likely to construct all the mining fronts before removing any ore, it will be a slow progression of work around one level.

On the hedging Shaun was excited about the hedging deal, I can’t say I understood his logic , he said the banks were happy at around $2450 and if it stays at $2650 or $2800 he would be very happy.

Starbright your aspersions yesterday that the whole of the bank facility was not enough to cover the capex and there isn’t enough at Telfer to pay for it.

I proved you were spreading subtle misinformation by using old reports that are no longer relevant.

The capex does not all have to be funded prior to first Ore production it can and will continue well into processing commencement.

Of course they will need the debt fascility but not all of it and they’ve stated will be mostly funded from Telfer.

There is a Telfer mining plan in place of which Newmont are paying for it to be mined at present this plan contains 21mt from last December, 9.6mt will be in stockpiles, c1mt processed by NEM, c10mt to be mined by Ggp. That is a fact.

Ggp have identified a further 30m tons with variable grades but is likely to be around the 0.3g/t. This will come in the resource report , this will be processed, Shaun was excited by this. If they can get 20mt out of it then that’s another year’s processing with both trains.

The geological reports are showing there’s at least 1.3moz around the base of the cave without the West Dome deep, so that knocks your argument of course.

Your subtle negative vibes around the capex make me agitated.

Somebody remarked to me earlier what’s happening on LSE today has somebody left the loony bin door open

Malva you missed the point about the 30mt of stockpile I only allowed for a $1200 margin on stock piles, there’s no mining involved, the margin should be a lot higher . As I posted this should cover all Royalties and Newmont fees.

Why are you coming on here nit picking my figures when there are posters here stirring troubles with their misinformation and you are saying nothing to them.

9.6mt in the stockpile still leaves over 10mt to be mined at 0.67g/t.

= 426,000oz eq recovered with a $1200 margin gives free cash flow of $405m.

$73m of working capital from placing.

From early 2026 start processing the 30mt of additional stockpiles.

That’s nearly $30m per month FCF at $1200 but there’s no mining involved so could be very high margin costs to mine about $80/ ton. Surplus could be used to pay Newmont stockpile fees and royalties.

Summary

$405m from stockpiles

$73m cash

Plus $90m for 3 months stockpiles

= $568m

Capex required $549m

A$33m to get the Decline to top of ore.

Unknown is what do they include as pre production mining and underground infrastructure

That’s A$229m that’s huge.

To get to the first stope level that’s 500m of decline plus say 500m of infrastructure accesses.

Finish Decline 770m = A$39m

1000m of infrastructure A$229m

Around 500kt due to come out H2 2026

Mine stopes around 90kt each

So that’s 5 stopes

That is one mining front

To get to first Ore production they only need one mining front the rest is later.

A$50k/m x 1000m = A$50m

Therefore A$150m is not pre production capex

Paste plant is needed post production to fill the void.

Pre production capex is not all required before processing starts.

Starbright that’s what I mean about being naive

Do you really think they will fund the total capex upfront what total absurdity. It’s a 20 year mine life for gods sake. How much revenues do you think they will earn by then.

They have to have a level of debt to cover the decision to mine.

Tell me what they’ve quoted on payback time, is it 20 years don’t be b….y daft

Ggp have put it in writing

THE CAPEX is FULLY funded (expletives)

Ggp have identified a further 20.4m tons of stockpiles discarded by Newcrest but is valuable to Ggp.

Three areas in the open pits have been drill tested and viable to proceed.

Further areas are being drilled right now underground and have been since last April.

Best to chuck that report away and look at the latest one from SRK far more detailed.

Critism of the delay to Havieron should be aimed at Newcrest, they were the ones in charge and badly managed over the last 2 years. The evaporation ponds designs have been mind boggling confusing causing that overflow that Ggp have to deal with.

Lot of naivety this afternoon regarding the capex required for Havieron.

At the PFS stage the total was around A$480m for the 100%, well we’ve been told now it’s gone upto A$806m.

The naive bit of course it’s gone up the mine is about a third deeper plus there’s been a sharp increase in inflationary costs.

What’s this capex for:-

Mine infrastructure above ground including a paste plant ,water purification, Evasee fan , additional evaporation ponds.

Below ground all the declines to the base of the mine, all the infrastructure to 4 working mine fronts, the backfilling operation with paste fill.

It’s a top down operation the first 300m will pay for the whole lot from revenue with loads left over.

If you’re going to quote someone else’s figures find out first how it’s built up before trying to frighten others.

In the huge 573 page Ggp document there’s a couple of references to “the Paterson South consideration” still to be allowed for.

I couldn’t find anything else about it in that document. Paddy put me onto the Rio jv agreement, in there it says there’s an upfront fee of A$350k paid in cash within 30 days or 6 months if in shares that would be last November.

Something has happened as it’s still due.

There’s 3 to 3.5m shares in issue not a lot but we could be having Rio as investors as well in the not too distant future or the ownership of the jv sorted.

What have Wishbone achieved? Not a lot!

Worth letting them spend more on exploration. If they find anything they have to get funding to infill drill it to get to a reserve figure. Not many juniors get that far.

Ggp not likely to want to drill it we got enough to do.

Shaun told us he has no intention of leaving the London Market

I doubt Wyloo will be buying on the open market, they have first dibs when / if Newmont want to offload and they still have warrants.

The sting is in the tail 🙂

Rehabilitation costs.

Shaun is already looking at this as I posted the other day do we need that D10 continually doing batters let the weather do it.

Lot of things will happen in the next 30 years, one thing for sure a large solar farm and wind turbines will be needed. During the reinstatement these maybe dismantled or linked to the grid , who knows.

The diesel and gas power plants I would have thought will be dismantled way before the end and a lot of the land would have been replanted.

Too far ahead for any of us to get worried about it.

Telfer could have 10-20 years life left in that mine.

Shaun backed this up by saying there’s 10 years life around the Main Dome underground. The West Dome deeps could be longer than 10 but until the fan drilling results come in that is still guess, but the geology indicates it will and go deeper.

Ggp bought a mine.

Well a bit more than that.

They bought 70% of one mine

100% of another plus a huge processing plant

Plus 2 joint ventures

Plus a huge exploration area with designated mining licences.

Plus 9% of Antipa shares.

For $420m come on it’s the deal of the century.

Havieron stopes are going to be 13 times larger than Northern Star started out with.

Shaun got a very good deal with the hedge

Newcrest spent A$500m developing Havieron to its present state.

Newmont just spent $millions repairing the tailings dams and plant upgrades, plus they continued to pay the miners for over 6 months to bring ore to surface , and continued fan drilling to West Dome deeps.

They’ve left behind numerous potential targets ready drilled ready to be classed as assets.

They’ve included 9% of Antipa shares and the Antipa jv.

Havieron paid $420m total plus the $53m Newcrest loan .

This is the deal of the century.

Lots of asset increases due in the next 9 months the reserve report in June is going to see a massive increase in assets increasing the value of the company.

Shaun was chatting about the rise in gold prices and the fact that Newmont and the hedging are all based on last February price so this will eventually lead to greater upsides for Ggp.

Telfer needed fresh blood to keep it alive, Ggp will give it that fresh impetus, after Reading geological reports I can see which way it’s going to go.

The revenues will be so strong any debt will be paid back very quickly.

Those are harsh comments I don’t think I’ve seen any videos from yourselves.

He says he’s only doing it as a hobby so very brave of him to try. His comments on Twitter have not been thought out very naive.

I’ve done 4 podcasts with Liam and they take a lot of work to put together. I don’t analyse share prices at all as it only leads to friction.

His video as an analysis was very immature and inaccurate with no real knowledge of what is happening.

Effort 5 out 10

Content 1 out of 10

Usefulness 0 out of 10

Stick to your ETF analysis