Havieron13 Mar 2023 06:00
Why are people looking at Havieron being a small mine, including analysts, maybe Newmont and traders?
The only published mining plan from NCM is the PFS.
It’s only about 17 months old.
The plan consists of :-
14mt of indicated reserves
Extraction rate 2.1mt per year maximum
Life of Mine 9 years
Against Cadia 2.1bnt in reserves , Havieron is extremely small.
Why?
Answer in 2 words:- Cut offs
These reserves have a 1g/t cut off
Cadia and Red Chris have not had cut offs controlling the reserves boundaries
I will try and show how the cut offs are used:-
1 g/t cut off has to have no more than 5m consecutive run of waste/ dilution in a 10m intercept
Eg:-
0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 1, 1, 3.2, 1, 1, 0.2
This passes the 1g/t cut off criteria
This one fails
0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 1, 1, 3.2,1,1
If you look at the 1 g/t model on the 3D graphic it’s not that big
The breccia have had a 0.2 g/t cut off used so the failed example above will be a pass under the lower criteria.
The PFS only refers to a 1 g/t cut off from drilling data from Feb 21
Cadia and Red Chris will not have high grade models they can’t exist and neither will that Kay mine.
Comparing Havieron with Cadia or Red Chris is not comparing apples with apples.
If Havieron was using a 0.1 g/t unrestricted boundaries like Cadia, Red Chris or Telfer then it would be a more fairer comparison .
Havieron would then be in the 1.5 to 2bn ton category.
When you look at the cut offs in the NSR shells you can see the strength of the Havieron grades
Havieron A$130
Cadia A$22
Red Chris A$15
That’s 6x greater than Cadia and 9x RC
Great things come in small packages :))