RE: ORPH v ERGO21 Nov 2020 10:30
Very interesting question PeterS23, I'll have a go and I state that I am no expert.
ERGO - is a CRO that looks to be growing it's revenues at a decent rate and has £30m cash on hand for expansion and no debt. They have published 1 full year with net positive profits of £5.52m for 2019 and this is expected to be larger by end of this year and next year end (pipeline of sales/contracts looks to be increasing. At a current PE of 71, it is very favourably valued and I can't say whether that is reflective or not.
However, ERGO does not seem to be a big player in the market it operates in, there are multiple other competitors and I can't see that it has any USP (probably due to my limited knowledge).
ORPH - we expect profitability by end of this year, with no debt, using a very conservative £5m (happy to have this amended) we calculate EPS of 0.007352941176471 (£5m / no of shares 680m) which if you took the share price (25p) and divided by the EPS gives approx 33.9 PE. At a profit of £10m, the PE goes down to 17.8 which may indicate undervalue (IMO).
What we do know is that ORPH is a big player in a niche market, no real direct competition and has the advantage of the multiple CS models along with the COVID one.
Big players like SGS even with their money will take a very long time to develop the CS which means ORPH can grow in this sector very nicely while capturing more market share. ORPH has a few USPs (Imutex, CS models, expertise, industry recognised team, wearable license monitisation, HUGE amount of data), some of this is my own positivity bias but hopefully reflected in the RNS' and the presentations by CF.
Add in the unknowns such as 3rd or 4th facility (I would argue that if ORPH were able to use SGS' facility that in itself calculates as 2 facilities based on 45 beds), discussions with Chinese Gov (if they can build an entire hospital in 6 days I'm sure they can build a quarantine facility within a couple of months), I also remember something about interest from Australia but not 100%.
With all that, the current SP of 25p is a bargain basement price and the market will catch up at some point!
In conclusion, I'm not sure you can draw a direct comparison between the 2 companies, they may be classed as "Health Care" but we know the dynamics are very, very different.
All my own opinion, DYOR etc etc!