The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Bantam, I fully agree with you here. However I wonder how much of this the rest of the board knew about. Such as Diamond, I wonder how much Rowan actually told him of that makes sense.
As you have stated yes the confidence is gone. On paper the company is extremely undervalued. Under the skin it has the board incompetence priced in. As the saying goes. If something looks too good to be true it probably is.
Are you holding Bantam? I'm going to ride the rollercoaster the whole way through the lows and the lower lows..
At the moment I wouldn't sell... I'm just holding and will until 2050 if I have to...
But yeah to me 15% makes no sense unless people think we will miss the order. If we hit it then we're back to sunshine and dasies 1p land. That's my hope..
Mate my problem is with the RNS that it reads that there will be slight delays and they expect it to be approved, pronto. We're already on a very tight schedule. Any slower than pronto and we end up missing the order. The order is extremely price sensitive which in my opinion is where the price action has come from... Put it this way. I'm in with a 1p average. And I don't have enough convinced to double down right now and make my average 0.8p. because if we miss that order the SP goes wayyyy down
I stand by my original reply. As a football fan I'll use this analogy:
If the team wins the next 2 games you're guaranteed playoffs. You wouldn't sack the manager before these 2 games.
In my opinion sacking Rowan 5 weeks before the order date could cause more problems than it solves.
Back to the football analogy..
If we end up missing out on the playoffs. Then we can get rid of Rowan after as there are less consequences.
So yes in my opinion Rowan has 5 weeks.
Can someone help me understand please?
So in the RNS they're spinning it off as a minor step back. Am I correct in saying that today's price action most likely means that people no longer trust that we will meet the pacificorp order deadline despite it saying in the RNS we will?
At the moment thinking about it I'm very sceptical we can hit that deadline... And so I'm thinking that's why we're 15% down as others also believe we won't hit this?
Thanks..
I'm also optimistic that AEG have posted another update on Twitter. That's 2 in 2 market days!! They feeling okay??
It's nothing much but I think start of producttion is imminent.
Am I right in saying it's got to be this week or next week in order to hit the deadline for the order?
They have not stated this no. In my models I have just assumed they use current cash of 8,000,000 and loan 20,000,000 (to leave themselves a bit on the side).
However I don't actually see this as likely. JV would indeed be best in my opinion. Maybe we could see Rowan go on dragons den asking them fund it!!
For real though I honestly see a placing is likely... I don't mind it, as long as the 50tph works out and the SP ends up going up anyway... But we hope for a JV...
So yeah. 5tph plant expected soon. There is a 900 tonne order from pacificorp, Hunter power plant I believe? That goes well and more orders should come in as well as licensing agreements.
Where we go from there is that an eventual target of 400,000 tonnes per year production when we have a 50 tonne per hour plant. Company says this is targeted 2023 I think... Coalswitch can be sold for 200 per tonne and produced for around 165 expected for the 50tph. It could go lower than that but stick with it for company estimate... 50tph plant could cost $25M.
As well as this the company is looking at licensing which according to rowan there is interest from US, UK, Canada, Ireland, Brazil, Poland, South Africa, India, Thailand, Japan, and Malaysia. If any of these happen? We'll see...
On top of this we have lumber revenue too.
As for negatives there is the RMDE incident as I'll call it. Where I don't understand too much here and I won't claim to. I don't have the experience here to know about Spinks' past with AEG..
RMDE came out and said that AEG didn't hold intellectual property for coalswitch in Canada. This is despite the record being there https://www.ic.gc.ca/opic-cipo/cpd/eng/patent/2999447/summary.html?query=applicant%3A%28Active+energy+group%29&type=advanced_search so I'm not sure what went on there.
Not sure you quite wanted all this but here you go lol. It's worth looking into more on my opinion. But the key thing is that from now to the end of June is a very important time for AEG... Make or break for the SP. If we miss the pacificorp deadline? Will be bad..
We hit it and it goes well? Will be good.. simple as that in my opinion. Bit of a gamble haha
https://twitter.com/AEG_plc/status/1388061434786025474?s=19
So.... I mean.... What does this mean haha..
Guess we will have to just stay tuned as it says..